History's Seductive Beliefs
Update: 2024-06-11
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My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might.
And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good about themselves.
Simple stories, feel-good stories. Those are some of history’s most seductive beliefs, and they always will be.
Here are a few that stick out.
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