Deep Dive into How to Rebuild Ukraine's Demographics after War?

Ukraine faces a profound demographic crisis resulting from war, accelerating pre-existing trends of low birth rates, an aging society, and emigration. The population in areas under Kyiv’s control is now estimated to be roughly 31–34 million, a significant decline from over 50 million in the early 1990s. The conflict has uprooted nearly a quarter of the pre-war population, with roughly 6.8–6.9 million Ukrainians registered as refugees abroad, of which about 4 million are covered by temporary protection in the European Union. An additional 3.7 to 3.8 million people remain internally displaced.

Compounding this loss of people is a severe fertility collapse, with the Total Fertility Rate dropping to around 0.9 children per woman in 2022, placing the country near the bottom of global rankings. The crude birth rate in 2023 was only 5.4 births per 1,000 inhabitants, far exceeded by 15.2 deaths. This decline is linked to economic strain, the separation of couples, and widespread damage to social infrastructure, with over ten percent of education institutions damaged or destroyed, totaling $13.4 billion in losses.

The long-term strategy for recovery is built upon three strategic pillars: first, creating secure and livable conditions to draw uprooted Ukrainians back home; second, shaping policies to lower the cost and anxiety of raising children, such as the lump-sum birth payment of 50,000 hryvnias; and third, rebuilding human capital through education, health care, and labor market reform to encourage skilled Ukrainians to stay rather than leave.

The total cost for reconstruction and recovery over ten years is estimated at $486 billion. This effort is fiscally constrained by massive wartime defense spending, forecast to be over 20 percent of GDP in 2024, necessitating sound budgeting and large-scale foreign aid. Critical governance elements, including anti-corruption measures like the Prozorro e-procurement platform and alignment with the European Union (which granted candidate status in June 2022), are essential to ensuring financial support is effectively targeted toward rebuilding the nation.

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