The government is finally back on schedule with releasing economic data — and the first report of the month delivered a surprise. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.2, signaling another month of contraction for the sector. Megan Horneman breaks down what’s driving the weakness and what it means for GDP, employment, inflation, and the Federal Reserve.

Megan explains why new orders, order backlogs, and delivery times are signaling slower activity, why the employment component fell to its lowest level since August, and why the prices paid index rising to a four-month high could complicate the inflation picture. She also breaks down why an increase in production is good for GDP, but a surge in imports could offset that strength.

Stay informed with #MarketsWithMegan as we watch whether this sustained manufacturing contraction finally spills into broader economic growth and what the Fed may make of all this.

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