Inflation insights and fed policy outlook
Update: 2025-08-13
Description
BlueBay Senior Trader Peter Keenan highlights key themes following the most recent inflation data release.
- Inflation Data Overview: July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (headline) and 0.3% excluding food and energy, with year-over-year increases of 2.7% (headline) and 3.1% (core), aligning with expectations.
- Market and Fed Expectations: Markets now price a 96% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, up from 86% pre-CPI release. The Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 21-23) is expected to signal further monetary easing, consistent with the Fed's potential 1-2 rate cuts this year.
- Economic Outlook: Despite a slowing pace of activity below 2% in late 2025, deregulation and policy easing may support economic growth into 2026. Corporate earnings have remained resilient, countering concerns of deeper economic trouble.
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