Iran, Israel, and America’s Future in the Middle East
4Digest
This episode of the Foreign Affairs interview features Vali R. Nasr, a professor and former dean at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, discussing the current state of the Middle East. Nasr argues that the region is on the verge of exploding due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. He highlights the role of Hamas in the region, explaining how it has become a key player in the "Axis of Resistance" despite not being a Shia proxy of Iran. Nasr also discusses the US's role in the region, arguing that its policy has been largely successful in preventing a wider war but has been less effective in addressing the conflict in Gaza. He criticizes the US's focus on normalization with Saudi Arabia, arguing that it is unrealistic given the current political climate. Nasr concludes by emphasizing the need for a new security architecture in the region that would address the tensions between Iran and Israel and create a more stable environment. He also discusses the potential impact of the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on the country's domestic and foreign policy.
Outlines
Introduction
This Chapter introduces the episode and the guest, Vali R. Nasr, a professor and former dean at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The episode focuses on the complex dynamics of the Middle East, particularly the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.
October 7th and its Aftermath
This Chapter delves into the events of October 7th, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. Nasr discusses the role of Iran in supporting Hamas and the strategic implications of the attack. He argues that Iran did not anticipate the scale and brutality of the attack, but it has nonetheless benefited from the outcome.
Iran's Enmity Towards Israel
This Chapter explores the historical and ideological roots of Iran's enmity towards Israel. Nasr explains how the Islamic Republic's view of Israel is rooted in a combination of anti-colonialism, third-world solidarity, and Islamic theology. He also discusses how Iran has strategically exploited Arab anger towards Israel to advance its own interests in the region.
Iran and Israel: The Two Gorillas in the Ring
This Chapter examines the current power dynamics in the Middle East, arguing that Iran and Israel are the two dominant forces in the region. Nasr explains how the Arab world is no longer a significant threat to Iran, and how both Iran and Israel are vying for influence in Saudi Arabia. He concludes that the conflict between Iran and Israel is the most significant challenge to regional stability.
The Axis of Resistance and its Strategy
This Chapter analyzes the activities of the "Axis of Resistance" in the months since the October 7th attacks. Nasr discusses the various attacks carried out by Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups, and he examines the strategic logic behind these actions. He argues that the Axis of Resistance has been successful in shattering Israel's sense of deterrence and security.
US Policy and the Middle East
This Chapter evaluates the US's policy in the Middle East since the October 7th attacks. Nasr argues that the US has been successful in preventing a wider war but has been less effective in addressing the conflict in Gaza. He criticizes the US's focus on normalization with Saudi Arabia, arguing that it is unrealistic given the current political climate.
The Rise of the Axis of Powers
This Chapter explores the growing alliance between Iran, Russia, and China. Nasr argues that the US's policies towards Russia and China have inadvertently pushed these countries closer to Iran, creating a new axis of power in the region. He discusses the implications of this alliance for regional stability and the US's role in the Middle East.
Towards a New Security Architecture
This Chapter examines the need for a new security architecture in the Middle East. Nasr argues that the US must define its goals in the region and find ways to de-escalate tensions. He suggests that the US should focus on ending the Gaza war, establishing clear red lines between Israel and Hezbollah, and creating a framework for managing the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Iran's Nuclear Program
This Chapter discusses the current state of Iran's nuclear program. Nasr notes that Iran is closer than ever to developing nuclear weapons, but he argues that the focus on the conflict in Gaza has diverted attention from this issue. He suggests that the US should engage with Iran on a nuclear deal that would also address regional security concerns.
Domestic Politics in Iran
This Chapter examines the domestic political situation in Iran, particularly in light of the recent death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Nasr argues that Raisi's death is unlikely to fundamentally change Iran's foreign policy, but it could lead to a period of uncertainty and instability. He suggests that the US should focus on leveraging Iran's interest in stability to advance its own goals in the region.
The Future of Gaza
This Chapter discusses Iran's ideal scenario for post-war Gaza. Nasr argues that Iran wants to see a ceasefire that preserves Hamas and keeps Israel bogged down in the Palestinian issue. He also expresses concern that the situation in Gaza could escalate further, potentially leading to a wider war.
The Holbrook Approach
This Chapter reflects on the legacy of Richard Holbrook, a legendary American diplomat. Nasr argues that Holbrook's approach to diplomacy, which involved engaging with all parties and pushing the US government to take a more active role, could be valuable in resolving the conflict in Gaza. He suggests that the US should adopt a more proactive approach to diplomacy and engage with all parties in the region.
Keywords
Axis of Resistance
A term used to describe a coalition of groups in the Middle East that oppose the United States and Israel. The Axis of Resistance is led by Iran and includes groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. The Axis of Resistance is united by its opposition to US and Israeli influence in the region and its support for Palestinian rights.
Hamas
A Palestinian Islamist political organization and militant group that controls the Gaza Strip. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and the European Union. It is known for its violent attacks on Israel and its opposition to the existence of the Jewish state. Hamas has received support from Iran and other countries in the region.
Hezbollah
A Lebanese Shia political party and militant group that is backed by Iran. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel. It is known for its military capabilities and its role in the Lebanese Civil War. Hezbollah has also been involved in conflicts with Israel, most notably the 2006 Lebanon War.
Iran
A country in the Middle East with a long history and a complex political system. Iran is a major player in the region and has been involved in numerous conflicts and disputes. It is known for its nuclear program, its support for various militant groups, and its rivalry with Israel. Iran is also a major oil producer and has a significant role in global energy markets.
Israel
A country in the Middle East with a long history and a complex political system. Israel is a major player in the region and has been involved in numerous conflicts and disputes. It is known for its military capabilities, its nuclear program, and its relationship with the United States. Israel is also a major center of technology and innovation.
Saudi Arabia
A country in the Middle East with a large oil reserve and a significant role in global energy markets. Saudi Arabia is a major player in the region and has been involved in numerous conflicts and disputes. It is known for its close relationship with the United States and its rivalry with Iran. Saudi Arabia is also a major center of Islamic pilgrimage and has a significant role in the Muslim world.
United States
A country in North America with a global reach and a significant role in international affairs. The United States is a major military power and has been involved in numerous conflicts and disputes around the world. It is also a major economic power and has a significant role in global trade and finance. The United States has a long history of involvement in the Middle East and has played a key role in shaping the region's political landscape.
Ebrahim Raisi
The current President of Iran. Raisi is a hardline cleric who has been accused of human rights abuses. He is known for his close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and his support for Iran's nuclear program. Raisi's death in a helicopter crash in July 2023 has raised questions about the future of Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
Gaza Strip
A Palestinian territory on the Mediterranean coast that is controlled by Hamas. The Gaza Strip is densely populated and has been subject to numerous Israeli military operations. It is also a major humanitarian crisis, with a high level of poverty and unemployment. The Gaza Strip is a key flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Nuclear Deal
A 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China) that aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The deal was withdrawn by the United States in 2018, but Iran has continued to comply with its terms. The future of the nuclear deal is uncertain, and it remains a major point of contention between Iran and the West.
Q&A
What is the current state of the Middle East, and what are the most significant challenges to regional stability?
The Middle East is on the verge of exploding due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. The conflict in Gaza has shattered Israel's sense of deterrence and security, and the rivalry between Iran and Israel is the most significant challenge to regional stability.
What is the role of Hamas in the region, and how does it fit into the "Axis of Resistance"?
Hamas is a key player in the "Axis of Resistance" despite not being a Shia proxy of Iran. It has become a more important player in the region due to its opposition to Israel and its willingness to use violence to achieve its goals. Hamas's alliance with Iran is based on a shared strategic interest in resisting US and Israeli influence in the region.
What is the US's role in the Middle East, and how effective has its policy been in addressing the current challenges?
The US has been successful in preventing a wider war in the region, but it has been less effective in addressing the conflict in Gaza. The US's focus on normalization with Saudi Arabia is unrealistic given the current political climate, and it has not been able to develop a comprehensive strategy for addressing the tensions between Iran and Israel.
What is the potential impact of the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on the country's domestic and foreign policy?
Raisi's death is unlikely to fundamentally change Iran's foreign policy, but it could lead to a period of uncertainty and instability. The US should focus on leveraging Iran's interest in stability to advance its own goals in the region.
What is Iran's ideal scenario for post-war Gaza, and does it see events on the ground leading in that direction?
Iran wants to see a ceasefire that preserves Hamas and keeps Israel bogged down in the Palestinian issue. However, the situation in Gaza is volatile and could escalate further, potentially leading to a wider war.
What is the potential for a new security architecture in the Middle East, and what would it look like?
The US must define its goals in the region and find ways to de-escalate tensions. A new security architecture should focus on ending the Gaza war, establishing clear red lines between Israel and Hezbollah, and creating a framework for managing the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
What is the current state of Iran's nuclear program, and how has the conflict in Gaza affected its nuclear calculus?
Iran is closer than ever to developing nuclear weapons, but the focus on the conflict in Gaza has diverted attention from this issue. The US should engage with Iran on a nuclear deal that would also address regional security concerns.
What is the significance of the growing alliance between Iran, Russia, and China, and how does it affect the regional dynamics?
The US's policies towards Russia and China have inadvertently pushed these countries closer to Iran, creating a new axis of power in the region. This alliance has implications for regional stability and the US's role in the Middle East.
What is the legacy of Richard Holbrook, and how could his approach to diplomacy be applied to the current situation in Gaza?
Holbrook's approach to diplomacy, which involved engaging with all parties and pushing the US government to take a more active role, could be valuable in resolving the conflict in Gaza. The US should adopt a more proactive approach to diplomacy and engage with all parties in the region.
Show Notes
For months, Iran and Israel have seemed to be on the brink of outright war. Although tensions are lower than in April—when the countries exchanged direct attacks—they remain dangerously high.
Vali Nasr has tracked these dynamics since long before October 7. He is the Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. He served as the eighth dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS between 2012 and 2019. During the Obama administration, he served as senior adviser to the legendary diplomat Richard Holbrooke.
He warns that as long as war rages in Gaza, the Middle East will remain on the verge of exploding. Yet it is not enough for Washington to focus just on ending that war. It must also put in place a regional order that can free the Middle East from these cycles of violence.
You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
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