Is The Blue Wall Cracking?
Digest
This podcast delves into the 2020 presidential race, examining the current state of the campaign and the potential outcomes. The hosts discuss Trump's decision to skip a second debate with Kamala Harris, analyzing the reasons behind this choice and its implications for the race. They also explore the conflicting results of recent polls, highlighting the limitations of polling and the influence of pollsters' decisions. The podcast further analyzes Kamala Harris's media blitz, examining her strategy and its effectiveness in reaching different demographics. They discuss the impact of Trump's perceived incoherence on his campaign and compare his energy to Biden's perceived age and frailty. The hosts also explore the significance of early voting data and its potential implications for the election. Moving beyond the election, the podcast delves into the potential for a Trump Justice Department in a second term to be used to persecute political enemies. They analyze the steps Trump could take to politicize the DOJ and FBI, including appointing loyalists and using the power of the presidency to target individuals. Finally, the podcast discusses the work of Climate Central and World Weather Attribution, which use science and data to calculate how much of a given weather event can be attributed to climate change. They discuss the increasing ability to link specific weather events to climate change and the importance of communicating this information to the public.
Outlines
The 2020 Presidential Race: A Deep Dive
This chapter examines the state of the presidential race, analyzing Trump's debate strategy, polling discrepancies, and the potential consequences of a Trump Justice Department in a second term.
Analyzing the Polls and Harris's Media Blitz
This chapter delves into the conflicting results of recent polls, highlighting the limitations of polling and the influence of pollsters' decisions. It also analyzes Kamala Harris's media blitz, examining her strategy and its effectiveness in reaching different demographics.
Early Voting and its Implications
This chapter explores the significance of early voting data and its potential implications for the election, analyzing the potential for early voting to cannibalize Election Day turnout and how it could benefit a candidate with strong organization and resources.
Climate Change and Hurricane Milton
This chapter discusses the work of Climate Central and World Weather Attribution, which use science and data to calculate how much of a given weather event can be attributed to climate change. They discuss the increasing ability to link specific weather events to climate change and the importance of communicating this information to the public.
Cocktail Chatter: Current Events and Reflections
This chapter features Cocktail Chatter, where the hosts discuss their thoughts on current events. John discusses Nemo Rinjee Sherpa, the youngest climber to summit all 14 of the world's highest mountains, and Emily discusses a letter she received from her third and fourth grade teacher, Theresa Miborey, and her family's experience with Japanese internment during World War II.
Listener Chatter: Panda Dogs and Creative Solutions
This chapter features Listener Chatter, where a listener shares their thoughts on a creative problem-solving tactic used by two zoos in China that ran out of real pandas. They used chow chows, painted to look like pandas, to fill the panda exhibit. The listener expresses their preference for panda dogs over real pandas.
Keywords
World Weather Attribution
A project that uses science and data to calculate how much of a given weather event can be attributed to climate change. It aims to provide evidence-based information about the link between climate change and extreme weather events.
Rapid Attribution
A method used by World Weather Attribution to conduct analysis of extreme weather events within weeks or a month of their occurrence, allowing for timely communication of the findings to the public and decision-makers.
Blue Wall States
States that have historically voted for Democratic presidential candidates, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These states are considered crucial for Democrats to win the presidency.
Early Voting
The process of casting a ballot before Election Day, often through mail-in ballots or in-person voting at designated locations. Early voting can have significant implications for the outcome of an election.
Trump Justice Department
Refers to the potential for a Trump Justice Department in a second term to be used to persecute political enemies, potentially leading to politically motivated investigations and prosecutions.
Panda Dog
A term used to describe chow chows that were painted to look like pandas and placed in a panda exhibit at two zoos in China. This creative solution was used to address a shortage of real pandas.
Q&A
What are the potential consequences of a Trump Justice Department in a second term?
A Trump Justice Department in a second term could be used to persecute political enemies, potentially leading to politically motivated investigations and prosecutions. This could erode public trust in the rule of law and create a chilling effect on dissent.
How does World Weather Attribution contribute to the public understanding of climate change?
World Weather Attribution provides evidence-based information about the link between climate change and specific weather events, helping the public understand the real-world consequences of climate change and the need for action.
What are the challenges of attributing specific weather events to climate change?
Attributing specific weather events to climate change requires rigorous computations and multiple approaches to ensure robust confidence in the findings. It's also important to communicate these findings in a way that is clear and understandable to the public, while avoiding politicization of the science.
Show Notes
This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump; Why Legal Experts Are Worried About a Second Trump Presidency; and Hurricanes Helene and Milton and climate change. And it’s never too early to send us your Conundrums at slate.com/conundrum.
For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David talk about media endorsements of political candidates.
In the latest Gabfest Reads, David talks with Elizabeth Strout about her new book, Tell Me Everything: A Novel.
Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)
Podcast production by Cheyna Roth
Research by Julie Huygen
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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