DiscoverFiveThirtyEight PoliticsJD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC
JD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC

JD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC

Update: 2024-07-18
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Digest

This episode of the 538 Politics Podcast delves into the Republican National Convention, analyzing the effectiveness of the speeches and the themes presented. The podcast hosts discuss the convention's focus on "Make America Strong Again" and "Make America Wealthy Again", highlighting the emphasis on national security, foreign policy, and economic issues. They also examine the impact of the convention on Biden's approval rating, noting the recent polling data suggesting a growing number of Democrats believe he should step aside. The podcast further explores the potential impact of JD Vance's running mate pick, discussing his speech and the public's perception of him. The hosts also delve into the importance of understanding how people consume political events, highlighting the differences in perception based on whether someone watches live, sees curated clips, or attends in person. The episode concludes with a discussion on the dynamic nature of the political landscape and the ongoing developments surrounding Biden's presidency.

Outlines

00:00:00
Convention Fatigue and Initial Impressions

This Chapter discusses the exhaustion felt by delegates and attendees at the Republican National Convention, with the hosts sharing their personal experiences and observations. They also touch upon the importance of how the convention is perceived on television, setting the stage for the discussion of the night's themes and speeches.

00:00:31
Night Three: Make America Strong Again

This Chapter focuses on the third night of the Republican National Convention, highlighting the theme of "Make America Strong Again" and its emphasis on national security and foreign policy. The hosts discuss the effectiveness of the speeches, particularly those delivered by gold star families and the family of a Hamas hostage, and how they aimed to portray Biden as weak on foreign policy.

00:11:37
JD Vance's Speech and the American Dream

This Chapter delves into the analysis of JD Vance's speech, exploring the different perspectives of the hosts who watched it live, through curated clips, and in person. They discuss the effectiveness of his message, particularly his focus on the American dream and the challenges faced by working-class Americans. The hosts also examine the criticism surrounding Vance's reframing of his book's themes and the broader shift in the Republican party's messaging.

00:22:55
Biden's Approval Rating and the Call for Him to Step Aside

This Chapter focuses on the latest polling data regarding Biden's approval rating and the growing number of Democrats who believe he should step aside. The hosts discuss the potential reasons for this shift, including the recent debate performance and the increasing calls from Democratic elites. They also explore the complexities of interpreting polling data and the challenges of asking voters about hypothetical scenarios.

Keywords

Republican National Convention


The Republican National Convention is a quadrennial event held by the United States Republican Party to formally nominate its presidential and vice presidential candidates. It is a major event in the American political calendar, attracting national attention and media coverage. The convention typically features speeches from prominent party members, including the presidential and vice presidential nominees, as well as platform debates and other events designed to energize the party base and promote the candidates' message.

Make America Strong Again


This is a slogan used by the Republican Party during the 2024 presidential election, emphasizing themes of national security, foreign policy, and a strong military presence. It is a direct response to the "Make America Great Again" slogan used by Donald Trump during his presidential campaigns, suggesting a continuation of his policies and a focus on American strength in the world.

JD Vance


JD Vance is an American author, venture capitalist, and politician. He is best known for his memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis", which explored the struggles of working-class white Americans in Appalachia. Vance was elected to the United States Senate in 2022, representing Ohio. He is considered a rising star in the Republican Party and is seen as a potential future leader.

American Dream


The American Dream is a national ethos of the United States, a set of ideals in which equality of opportunity is available to every American, allowing the opportunity for success and prosperity through hard work and determination. It is often associated with the pursuit of homeownership, financial security, and upward mobility. The American Dream has been a powerful motivator for generations of Americans, but its attainability has been increasingly debated in recent years, with concerns about economic inequality and social mobility.

Joe Biden


Joe Biden is the 46th and current president of the United States. He served as vice president under Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Biden is a member of the Democratic Party and has a long history of public service, having served in the United States Senate from 1973 to 2009. He is known for his moderate political views and his focus on bipartisanship.

Polling Data


Polling data refers to the results of surveys conducted to gauge public opinion on a variety of topics, including political candidates, policies, and social issues. Polling is a crucial tool for political campaigns, media organizations, and researchers, providing insights into voter preferences and trends. However, polling data can be subject to biases and methodological limitations, making it important to interpret results with caution.

Foreign Policy


Foreign policy refers to the strategies and actions a nation takes in its interactions with other countries. It encompasses a wide range of issues, including diplomacy, trade, military alliances, and international organizations. Foreign policy decisions are often complex and involve balancing national interests with global concerns.

National Security


National security refers to the protection of a nation's interests from external threats, including military aggression, terrorism, and cyberattacks. It involves a range of measures, including military preparedness, intelligence gathering, and border security. National security is a paramount concern for governments, as it directly affects the safety and well-being of citizens.

Swing Voters


Swing voters are voters who are not firmly committed to any particular political party and are therefore considered to be potentially persuadable by either side in an election. They are often located in swing states, which are states that are not reliably won by either party in presidential elections. Swing voters are highly sought after by political campaigns, as they can determine the outcome of close races.

Populism


Populism is a political approach that appeals to the common person, often by contrasting "the people" with "the elite" or "the establishment." Populist movements often emphasize national identity, economic grievances, and a rejection of traditional political institutions. Populism can take on both left-wing and right-wing forms, and it has become increasingly prominent in recent years.

Q&A

  • What were the main themes of the Republican National Convention's third night?

    The third night of the Republican National Convention focused on the theme of "Make America Strong Again", emphasizing national security and foreign policy. The speeches highlighted the importance of a strong military, a tough stance on immigration, and a commitment to American leadership in the world.

  • How did the convention speakers attempt to portray Joe Biden on foreign policy?

    The convention speakers aimed to portray Biden as weak on foreign policy, highlighting the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and his handling of the Hamas hostage situation. They argued that Biden's policies have made America less safe and that he is not a strong leader on the world stage.

  • What is the significance of JD Vance's running mate pick?

    JD Vance's running mate pick is significant because he is a relatively unknown figure to the general public. His speech at the convention was an opportunity to introduce himself to America and to connect with voters on issues like the American dream and the challenges faced by working-class Americans.

  • How did the hosts' different methods of consuming the convention affect their perceptions of JD Vance's speech?

    The hosts' different methods of consuming the convention, whether watching live, seeing curated clips, or attending in person, led to varying perceptions of JD Vance's speech. Some found it awkward and halting, while others found it effective and engaging, highlighting the importance of considering how people consume political events.

  • What is the latest polling data on Biden's approval rating and the call for him to step aside?

    The latest polling data suggests that a growing number of Democrats believe Biden should step aside as the nominee. This shift is attributed to factors such as his recent debate performance and the increasing calls from Democratic elites. However, the hosts debate whether this is a real trend or simply statistical noise.

  • What are the challenges of interpreting polling data on hypothetical scenarios?

    Interpreting polling data on hypothetical scenarios, such as asking voters whether a candidate should step aside, can be challenging because it is difficult to gauge the true level of support or opposition. Voters may answer based on their current feelings, but their actual behavior in a real election could be different.

  • How does the Republican party's messaging on the American dream differ from its past approach?

    The Republican party's messaging on the American dream has shifted from a focus on personal responsibility and skepticism about social programs to a focus on external causes that are responsible for the victimization of working-class Americans. This shift reflects a broader change in the party's approach to economic and social issues.

  • What is the importance of understanding how people consume political events?

    Understanding how people consume political events, whether through live broadcasts, curated clips, or social media, is crucial for analyzing the impact of those events. Different methods of consumption can lead to varying perceptions and interpretations, which can influence public opinion and political discourse.

Show Notes

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik join Galen to help make sense of the third night of the Republican National Convention. Plus: How should we interpret polls that show a majority of Democrats want President Joe Biden to step aside?

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JD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC

JD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC

ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke