JF 4105: Slowing Hiring, Capital Costs and the Hidden Advantages for Today’s Investors with John Chang
Description
John Chang shares why commercial real estate data has become less reliable following the DOJ’s settlement with RealPage, and how losing access to more precise rent and vacancy feeds weakens investor decision-making. He walks through the market’s wildly shifting expectations for a potential December 10 Fed rate cut and argues that political pressure and policy uncertainty—not the cost of capital—are what’s really slowing hiring and expansion. John then looks at how tariffs, tight immigration policies, and a softer job market could temporarily dampen household formation and apartment absorption in 2026 across apartments, retail, and industrial, while creating pent-up demand that returns later in the cycle. Finally, he explains why investors who can secure positive leverage today—higher cap rates against moderating debt costs—may be better positioned for the next upswing if they buy before sentiment and competition turn.
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