Leveraged ETF Analysis: Why 2X Products Don't Deliver Long-Term Multiples
Update: 2025-10-29
Description
Hosts Nick and Tony explored why leveraged ETFs consistently underperform their intended multiples over time, despite $120 billion in assets and explosive growth since 2020's market recovery. The analysis demonstrated how daily resets create asymmetric compounding - using a three-day example where Tesla went -3%, -3%, +6.3% (ending flat) while the 2X ETF went -6%, -6%, +12.6% (ending down 50 basis points). This "volatility decay" or "drag" means investors need V-shaped recoveries rather than grinding moves, as illustrated by Tesla's 22% annual gain producing a -7% loss in TSLL after dividends. The segment emphasized these products are designed for hours or days of trading, not buy-and-hold strategies, with particular warning about XIV's 2017 collapse when volatility finally popped after two years of daily declines. New single-stock ETFs tracking Tesla, NVIDIA, and MicroStrategy at 2-3X leverage now dominate the space, with some incorporating covered calls for yield, though hosts noted sophisticated traders prefer implementing these strategies themselves rather than paying management fees.
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