Lockdowns, US politics, terror in France, Australia's China policy, and China's Fifth Plenum
Description
This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the implications of second wave lockdowns in the UK and Europe. These economies will take a hammering and become seriously diminished.
3 November is D-Day for US politics. Alexander has endorsed Trump but thinks he'll lose, while Georgina sees a narrow path to victory for Trump through the Sun Belt states and Pennsylvania. Still, predictions are a mugs game especially if 2016 was anything to go by.
Terror has once again visited France, with two Islamist terror attacks in the last month. French President Emmanuel Macron's response to the attacks was to diagnose Islam as a religion in crisis. This brought the ire of former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistan's President Imran Kahn. France hosts the largest Muslim population in Europe and these ethnic and religious tensions will continue to grow in the lead up to the 2022 French presidential election where far-right leader Marine Le Pen will once again run.
Australia's policy on China has hardened over the last few years, with the influence of Australia's security and intelligence services taking the lead over Foreign Affairs types in Canberra. China's reaction to Australia's hawkishness has been tough and Australia is now grappling with the economic consequences of standing its ground when it comes to political and commercial interference by China.
At the Fifth Plenum of the Communist Party of China we got a glimpse into China's priorities for the next five years. Expect more focus on technological self-reliance and innovation and prioritising domestic consumption over an export-led economy while China navigates an uncertain strategic landscape and changing regional power balances.
United States
