Market Measures - January 5, 2026 - Market Measure - Zero-DTE Weekly Breakdown: Trading Into Santa Rally
Update: 2026-01-05
Description
Hosts Chris and Mike analyzed the disappointing 2025 Santa Claus rally (only 17-point S&P move from 6961 to current levels versus typical year-end surge) while highlighting exceptional zero-DTE iron condor performance during the period. The VIX compression to 13.47 on Christmas Eve and 14.5 median (well below 17.2 annual and 16.7 long-term medians) resulted from narrow trading ranges rather than explosive upside moves. The 25% profit target strategy achieved perfect success with trades exiting by 11am, while 50% targets forced afternoon holds creating two losses and "materially reduced overall performance." The analysis revealed unexpected downside testing pattern over final three weeks (put-side tested 3x longer than calls) contrary to typical bull market bias, increasing risk for bullish 30-delta put spreads though they remained profitable. The key dates of December 15th and 17th showed "large one-sided moves leaving only brief early morning profit opportunities," emphasizing mechanical execution importance in low-volatility environments where vol spikes can rapidly increase extrinsic value losses even without being tested.
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