DiscoverFiveThirtyEight PoliticsModel Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

Update: 2020-11-129
Share

Description

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.

Comments (3)

Asmaa H-a

ججكججج ثم ك حككجج ك

Nov 17th
Reply

Jeff Frost

Oh fuck you, "they weren't that bad." How the hell are you going to fix the problem if you can't acknowledge it? 8 points off in multiple states is catastrophically bad. I'm so done with this bullshit. Not listening anymore.

Nov 13th
Reply (1)
00:00
00:00
x

0.5x

0.8x

1.0x

1.25x

1.5x

2.0x

3.0x

Sleep Timer

Off

End of Episode

5 Minutes

10 Minutes

15 Minutes

30 Minutes

45 Minutes

60 Minutes

120 Minutes

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver