Nate Silver on Kamala Harris’s Chances and the Mistakes of the ‘Indigo Blob’
25Digest
This episode of the Ezra Klein Show features a conversation with Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and election forecaster. The discussion covers a wide range of topics, including Silver's election model, his growing skepticism towards the political establishment, the impact of the pandemic on risk tolerance, and the importance of attention and intuition in politics. Silver begins by discussing his election model, which currently predicts Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election with around 52%. He explains the factors considered in the model, including the convention bounce, nonpartisan response bias, and Harris's momentum. However, he also expresses his growing skepticism towards the political establishment, citing the media's handling of the "butter email" scandal, the overemphasis on Russian interference in the 2016 election, and the perceived self-serving nature of the public health response to the pandemic. The conversation then delves into the concept of "decoupling," which involves separating an issue from its context. Silver argues that the progressive left often fails to decouple, focusing too much on the identity and credentials of the speaker rather than the merits of their arguments. He also discusses the impact of the pandemic on risk tolerance, suggesting that society is becoming more bifurcated in its approach to risk. Silver introduces two metaphors to describe different worlds: the "river" world of gambling, risk-taking, and venture capital, and the "village" world of the political establishment. He argues that both groups are composed of elites who often fail to understand each other's perspectives and motivations. The conversation returns to the election, focusing on Harris's unexpected surge in popularity. Silver attributes this to a "vibe shift" in American politics, a desire for a change in tone after years of negativity and division. He also discusses the importance of attention in politics, arguing that it is often under-theorized. He suggests that Donald Trump's success was partly due to his ability to capture attention and create energy, while Joe Biden's 2024 campaign has struggled to shift the narrative away from Trump. The episode concludes with a discussion of the physical experience of risk and the importance of intuition in high-pressure situations. Silver argues that the ability to act under stress is a learnable skill, drawing parallels to the "zone" experienced by athletes and other performers. He believes that intuition is valuable in high-pressure situations, particularly for leaders who need to make quick decisions with incomplete information.
Outlines
Introduction and Nate Silver's Background
The episode begins with a brief introduction to the Ezra Klein Show and its guest, Nate Silver. Silver's background as a poker player and his expertise in election forecasting are discussed. His book, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything," is introduced, which applies the frameworks of gambling and politics to AI and venture capital.
Election Forecasting and Kamala Harris's Momentum
The conversation delves into Nate Silver's election model, which currently predicts Harris winning the election with around 52%. The model considers factors like the convention bounce, nonpartisan response bias, and Harris's momentum.
Nate Silver's Skepticism and Disillusionment
Nate Silver discusses his growing skepticism towards the political establishment, particularly after the 2016 election and the pandemic. He criticizes the media's role in the "butter email" scandal and the overemphasis on Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Decoupling and Cognitive Biases
Nate Silver introduces the concept of "decoupling," which involves separating an issue from its context. He argues that the progressive left often fails to decouple, focusing too much on the identity and credentials of the speaker.
Risk Tolerance and Societal Bifurcation
The conversation explores the impact of the pandemic on risk tolerance, suggesting that society is becoming more bifurcated in its approach to risk. Nate Silver observes a decline in risk tolerance among young people, while others are embracing riskier behaviors.
Peter Thiel and the VC Mindset
Nate Silver shares his impressions of Peter Thiel, a prominent venture capitalist. He describes Thiel as a "weird dude" who is very thoughtful and believes in "impredestiny." He contrasts the VC mindset, which prioritizes big payouts over high betting averages, with the media's focus on being right most of the time.
Sam Bankman-Fried and the River World
Nate Silver discusses Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, who he believes is "kind of insane." He criticizes Bankman-Fried's lack of competence in managing risk and his tendency to double down on his initial instincts.
The Blind Spots of Elites
Nate Silver argues that both the "river" (gambling, VC) and the "village" (political establishment) are groups of elites who are not very data-driven when it comes to politics. He suggests that they often miss the importance of human interaction and the intangible factors that influence elections.
Kamala Harris's Unexpected Momentum and the Vibe Shift
The conversation returns to the election, focusing on Kamala Harris's surprising surge in popularity. Nate Silver attributes this to a "vibe shift" and a desire for a change in tone after years of doom and gloom in politics.
The Importance of Attention in Politics
Nate Silver emphasizes the importance of attention in politics, arguing that it is often under-theorized. He suggests that Donald Trump's success was partly due to his ability to capture attention and create energy, while Joe Biden's 2024 campaign has struggled to shift the narrative away from Trump.
Keywords
Decoupling
The act of separating an issue from its context, allowing for independent evaluation of the issue itself. For example, decoupling art from the artist, or separating a product from the company's political stance.
River
A metaphor for the world of gambling, risk-taking, and venture capital, where success is based on being right and proving it, regardless of identity or credentials.
Village
A metaphor for the political establishment, including media, politics, government, and progressive institutions. Nate Silver criticizes the village for its groupthink, lack of data-driven decision-making, and tendency to overestimate its own credibility.
Tilt
A state of emotional play, particularly in poker or other forms of gambling, often triggered by bad luck or frustration. It can lead to irrational decision-making and a decline in performance.
Median Voter Theorem
A theory in political science that suggests that candidates who appeal to the median voter, the voter whose preferences are in the middle of the political spectrum, are more likely to win elections. Nate Silver argues that the median voter theorem is often taken too seriously, neglecting the importance of energy, enthusiasm, and media attention.
Vibe Shift
A change in the overall mood or atmosphere, often driven by cultural trends or social movements. Nate Silver suggests that Kamala Harris's unexpected momentum is partly due to a "vibe shift" in American politics, a desire for a change in tone after years of negativity and division.
Intuition
The ability to understand something instinctively, without conscious reasoning. Nate Silver argues that intuition is a valuable skill in high-pressure situations, particularly for leaders who need to make quick decisions with incomplete information.
Q&A
How does Nate Silver's election model currently predict the outcome of the 2024 election?
Nate Silver's model currently predicts Kamala Harris winning the election with around 52%, taking into account factors like the convention bounce, nonpartisan response bias, and Harris's momentum.
What are some of the key reasons for Nate Silver's growing skepticism towards the political establishment?
Nate Silver's skepticism stems from his experiences with the media's handling of the "butter email" scandal, the overemphasis on Russian interference in the 2016 election, and the perceived self-serving nature of the public health response to the pandemic.
What is "decoupling" and how does it relate to Nate Silver's critique of the progressive left?
Decoupling involves separating an issue from its context, allowing for independent evaluation. Nate Silver argues that the progressive left often fails to decouple, focusing too much on the identity and credentials of the speaker rather than the merits of their arguments.
How has the pandemic impacted risk tolerance in society?
The pandemic has led to a decline in risk tolerance among young people, while others have embraced riskier behaviors. This bifurcation in risk tolerance has affected everything from social interactions to voting patterns.
What are some of the key differences between the "river" and the "village" worlds, according to Nate Silver?
The "river" world emphasizes risk-taking, being right, and proving it, while the "village" world prioritizes consensus, credentials, and identity. Both groups are composed of elites, but they often fail to understand each other's perspectives and motivations.
What are some of the reasons for Kamala Harris's unexpected surge in popularity?
Harris's momentum is attributed to a "vibe shift" in American politics, a desire for a change in tone after years of negativity and division. Her memeability and ability to connect with younger voters have also contributed to her success.
Why does Nate Silver believe that Kamala Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro as her running mate?
Nate Silver argues that Shapiro's popularity in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, would have given Harris a significant advantage in the election. He believes that the decision to choose Tim Walz was more about "vibes" than strategic considerations.
How does Nate Silver view the importance of attention in politics?
Nate Silver believes that attention is a crucial factor in politics, often under-theorized. He suggests that Donald Trump's success was partly due to his ability to capture attention and create energy, while Joe Biden's 2024 campaign has struggled to shift the narrative away from Trump.
How does Nate Silver assess the physical experience of risk and the role of intuition in high-pressure situations?
Nate Silver argues that the ability to act under stress is a learnable skill, drawing parallels to the "zone" experienced by athletes and other performers. He believes that intuition is valuable in high-pressure situations, particularly for leaders who need to make quick decisions with incomplete information.
Show Notes
Risk has been on my mind this year. For Democrats, the question of whether Joe Biden should drop out was really a question about risk – the risk of keeping him on the ticket versus the risk of the unknown. And it’s hard to think through those kinds of questions when you have incomplete information and so much you can’t predict. After all, few election models forecast that Kamala Harris would have the kind of momentum we’ve seen the last few weeks.
Nate Silver’s new book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,” is all about thinking through risk, and the people who do it professionally, from gamblers to venture capitalists. (Silver is a poker player himself.) And so I wanted to talk to him about how that kind of thinking could help in our politics – and its limits.
We discuss how Harris is performing in Silver’s election model; what he means when he talks about “the village” and “the river”; what Silver observed profiling Peter Thiel and Sam Bankman-Fried, two notorious risk-takers, for the book; the trade-offs of Harris’s decision to choose Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro as a running mate; and more.
This episode contains strong language.
Mentioned:
The Contrarian by Max Chafkin
“Nancy Pelosi on Joe Biden, Tim Walz and Donald Trump” by The Ezra Klein Show
Book Recommendations:
The Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates
The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes
Addiction by Design by Natasha Dow Schüll
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Efim Shapiro and Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Michelle Harris, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
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