The political focus across Europe on October 1, 2025, is heavily concentrated on the informal EU summit in Copenhagen, characterized by a “gravity rare” for such meetings, where leaders are set to discuss missiles and fighter jets instead of typical topics like competition and commerce. A central concern is European defense capability, spurred by recent incursions of Russian drones into Polish airspace. Discussions include the potential creation of a “mur de drones” (drone wall) and other flagship defense projects like the Eastern Flank Watch, the Air Defence Shield, and a Defence Space Shield.

The Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, is pushing for centralized management of these defense projects, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, supported by France, argues that control should remain with member states, utilizing the European Defense Agency for cooperation. Another crucial topic is the financial support for Ukraine, with momentum building to use the approximately €140 billion in frozen Russian state bank assets as collateral for loans to Kyiv.

The plan, supported by Merz, is designed to ensure Ukraine’s funding, even potentially without U.S. aid, and includes efforts to circumvent Hungary’s expected veto threat regarding the prolongation of sanctions by potentially moving decisions to qualified majority voting. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are among those attending the Council European informel (CEI).

Concurrently, major political developments are unfolding in key European capitals. In France, the opening of the ordinary session of the National Assembly coincides with anticipation surrounding the imminent composition of the Lecornu government, expected between Thursday and the weekend. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is reportedly working to consolidate support from the right (Les Républicains) before addressing concessions to the left.

The Assembly faces internal elections for its Bureau, with negotiations having yielded certain outcomes, such as the MoDem party gaining a vice-presidency, although the NFP (left coalition) is expected to lose seats. In Germany, the Cabinet is meeting to discuss the Modernization Agenda of Karsten Wildberger, while the Federal Audit Office (Bundesrechnungshof) has expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of planned €1.6 billion savings in the 2026 budget related to the Bürgergeld (Citizen's Income).

Meanwhile, UK politics is characterized by Labour leader Keir Starmer’s recent conference offensive against Nigel Farage, specifically by labeling migrant boats in the Channel as “Farage boats,” attributing the rise in unauthorized crossings partly to the failure to replace the Dublin agreement following Brexit. Starmer is also expected to look into how certain articles of the European Convention on Human Rights are applied in British courts, and his party is widely anticipated to lift the two-child benefit cap in some form during the next budget.