Will gold hit $5000 an ounce?

With all the excitement surrounding the run up in gold this year it seems to be an easy target. However, as investors pour money into precious metals, such as gold, people have to remember that President Trump has pledged to stimulate the economy through tax cuts. The run up in gold has been due to investors that worry about the future of the dollar and other major currencies. Wall Street has labeled this the debasement trade. The dollar did decline in the first six months of 2025, but it has since stabilized. September saw a record $33 billion invested in exchange traded funds tied to physical gold. The excitement continues for gold buyers, but it is important to remember that normally during uncertain times investors will find safety in dollar denominated assets like treasuries that can push-up the dollar's value. The danger for gold investors is if the narrative shifts, gold could have a major decline. If you look back 165 years to 1860, you will see that gold has other multi-year runs but has consistently had a major bust after those run ups. Investors in gold should also look at what happened in 1979 with a major rally in gold but 3 1/2 years later all the gains accumulated had disappeared. Investors may want to take some of their profits because the higher gold climbs, the bigger the fall could be. In my view, $5000 per ounce for gold is a big gamble.

Great news, more working-class Americans than ever before are in the stock market.

That does sound like good news, but then when you dig a little deeper, it is rather scary! 54% of Americans with incomes between $30,000 and $80,000 have taxable investment accounts. There are several reasons for this like no more commissions for trading stocks, the excitement of investing on certain social media sites, and it’s so easy to trade stocks now as anyone who has a cell phone can pretty much trade stocks instantaneously. I remember an old saying from years ago that when your barber starts talking to you about stock tips that is the peak of the market. This seems to be where we're at today and unfortunately, these investors have only been investing for probably the last five years and have not experienced any long, lasting declines or turmoil in the markets. Many of these investors are simply trading stocks and don’t understand the fundamentals of investing for the long-term. Some of them have experienced very good returns, not because of any specialized knowledge but because of the luck of picking some highflyers that have done well for them in the short term. In many cases, they do not believe it’s luck and they feel they now know what they’re doing. These investors probably have no idea what the earnings or debt is for the stocks they are trading. They just see that they continue to make money as they buy and sell. It is a shame because many of them are young investors from 25 to 45 years old and a big mistake could cost them years of compounding. Over my 40+ years of working in the investment industry I’ve heard the same story many times, and it never turns out well. When you try to help them understand how things really work in the investment world, they justify what they’re doing with such statements as “this time it is different”. I wish these young investors would understand that investing in stocks and earning a 10% annual return per year is very good. I’m sure many who read this or hear the words I speak think I have no clue what they’re doing, and they have a specialized technique that can’t fail. When the day comes,  which it will, these investors will be left with a small amount of capital and not much time left to invest because they are now older and closer to retirement. Only then will they realize that their risky trading strategy proved to be nothing more than gambling!

Lower end consumers are having a hard time making their car payments

With the rising cost of cars and higher interest rates, lower end consumers are falling behind on their car payments, and the numbers are starting to get a little scary. 14% of new cars that were sold to people had a credit score under 650, this is the highest percent going back to 2016. People seem to be getting in over their head as subprime loans that are 60 days or more overdue are at a record 6% this year. The number of repossessed vehicles is also climbing to a record not seen in 16 years to an estimated 17.3 million repossessed vehicles. Some consumers overbought a car probably due to a good salesperson and that new car smell that sometimes is hard to resist. Some consumers are starting to regret their new car purchase considering the average car payment is around $750 and 20% of loans and new leases are over $1000 a month. We will continue to watch this indicator along with others to verify that we are only seeing a slowdown of growth in the economy, rather than a declining economy. It's important to remember to be careful where you invest. It appears that some of these subprime loans for cars ended up in private loan deals that were sold as low risk because of no market fluctuation. The problem here is we are starting to see write-downs from publicly traded banks for bad loans and with private credit you might not know there is a problem until it's too late since they don't have to disclose the same info as these publicly traded companies. 

Financial Planning: Upgrade Your Emergency Fund to an Emergency Plan

When paychecks stop, as many federal employees are currently experiencing, having an emergency plan with multiple layers of liquidity is essential. The first line of defense is your credit card. When used strategically, it can buy you up to two months of interest-free spending since no interest accrues until after the statement due date. However, you don’t want to carry a balance beyond that point. Next comes cash reserves, ideally kept in a high-yield Treasury bill money market fund, where your money earns competitive interest while avoiding state tax. Beyond cash, having credit lines such as a HELOC provides deeper, low-cost access to capital without forcing you to liquidate investments. These can take a couple of months to establish, and since they generally don’t have origination fees, it’s best to set them up before you need them. After that, investment accounts can serve as a secondary safety net. Taxable accounts may generate capital gains, but withdrawals are unrestricted. Roth IRA contributions can be withdrawn tax- and penalty-free at any age, and HSA accounts can issue reimbursements for qualified medical expenses incurred in prior years. In a true last-resort scenario, you can even access retirement funds through a 60-day rollover, temporarily using the cash before redepositing it. By layering these tools, from credit to cash to credit lines to investments, you build a structured, flexible liquidity plan that can withstand extended income disruptions and operate far more efficiently than simply keeping 12 months of expenses in a savings account.



Companies Discussed: Ferrari (RACE), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) & Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)