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Oil's Tug-of-War: Paper vs. Physical Reality

Oil's Tug-of-War: Paper vs. Physical Reality

Update: 2025-10-06
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Oil markets are flashing mixed signals! While futures prices look strong, physical barrels tell a different story with North Sea crude struggling and US oil flooding Europe at discounts. Is this a temporary disconnect fueled by refinery attacks and risk premiums, or a sign of deeper imbalances? With global refineries maxed out and winter diesel demand looming, a single disruption could trigger a price spike. The key to understanding where markets are headed lies in watching Russian exports, refinery performance, and regional crude price spreads.

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Oil's Tug-of-War: Paper vs. Physical Reality

Oil's Tug-of-War: Paper vs. Physical Reality