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Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

Update: 2023-10-02
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The government plans to implement some structural reforms in FY2023/24, including amending law no.3/2005 regulating M&As, announcing the tax policy for the next five years, and preparing a unified vision for start-ups, preventing conflict of jurisdictions between different entities.

Egypt will likely have to spend USD29.2 billion on debt repayments in 2024, USD10 billion higher than our estimated bill in 2023 at USD19.3 billion.

GAFI could start to issue silver licenses for local startups in 4Q2023 to help ease administrative hurdles. 

OPEC+ ministerial panel will meet on 4 October, with no policy tweaks or recommendations expected.

Local importers are calling for tighter and wider-ranging restrictions on food export bans following the Trade Ministry’s three-month ban on the export of onions going into effect.

In a meeting between SCzone and local and international energy companies already operating in the country, 24 Japanese companies showed interest in investing in the zone, promoting investments in green fuels and renewable energy.

ABUK (FV: EGP60.60, EW) approved in its latest OGM the dividends distribution of EGP7.00 for FY22/23, to be distributed on three installments: EGP2.00 on 26 October 2023, EGP3.00 on 28 December 2023, and EGP2.00 on 31 January 2024. However, this last distribution depends on the cash position of the company then. It is noteworthy that dividend yield for FY22/23 amounts to 10.4% and payout ratio to 72.2%. 

HRHO’s consumer finance arm ValU has announced plans to launch in Jordan early 2024. ValU has excluded Saudi Arabia from its regional expansion plans due to market conditions and doubts over profitability.

ADIB’s micro-finance arm, Arzak, has received the FRA’s approval to issue its first products, Murabha and Musharka.

EAST (FV: EGP24.72, OW) decided that its previously announced dividends of EGP3.75 will be distributed over two tranches. The first tranche will be distributed on 28 October 2023 consisting of EGP2.00, while the second tranche consists of EGP1.75 to be distributed by December 2023. That entails a FY22/23 DPO of 109% (from the standalone earnings) and a DY of 16%.

EFID secured a USD45 million loan from IFC to finance growth locally and regionally. The facility will have a tenor of eight years with a two-year grace period.

ORWE (FV: EGP18.50, OW) BoD approved selling the company’s stake in National Bank of Kuwait Egypt of 0.7%, and focus on activities related to the core business and divesting non-core investments.

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is preparing to list state-owned Midar (El Mostakbal Urban Development) on the EGX in 1H24. Midar is also reportedly negotiating to sell land to GCC investors, according to local media.

Weekly Commodities Update 

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 95.3 | 2.2%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 443 | 4.2%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 423 | -1.7%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,070 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 968 | 2.1%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 359 | 1.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,331 | 5.9%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 1,970 | -0.8%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 160 | 0.1%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,400 | 5.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

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