Alex talks to special guest trade epxert David Henig about Trump's threatened tariff war - how likely is it, what would it mean for the world economy, and in which direction the UK should move to be best protected.

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“Most trade is not in finished products, but in components. This is really important in thinking about the effect of possible tariffs. At least 50% of US imports are things that will in turn form part of a finished American product or help to make it.”

“Trump’s plan for tariffs is good news if you’re a lobbyist working in DC, because everyone is going to be seeking exemptions for their inputs or tariffs on their rivals. This will become quite a bonanza in that way.”

“Look at the figures. 50% of our trade, broadly, is with the EU. The UK cannot afford to ignore that. But then again 15-20% of our trade is with the US. Again, we cannot ignore that. So, we have to duck and weave, but we have to do so within a very straightforward principle: Geography matters. That makes Europe more important than the US.”  

“The UK needs a little bit of honesty, to say: If you put up barriers with your neighbours, you will suffer a little economically. Similarly, that we’re not going to have an all-singing-all-dancing trade deal with the US. Also, that the actions we are taking at the moment to improve the deal with the EU will not transform the UK economy. Then we can have an honest discussion.”

“Global Britain has failed. If the project of the last few Conservative administrations was to replace trade lost from the EU with trade around the world, that hasn’t happened. In fact trade is down both with the EU and with the rest of the world.”

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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.

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