Digest

Simon Sebag Montefiore, a renowned historian, joins On Point to discuss his book "The World: A Family History of Humanity." He argues that the world is entering a new era, marked by the end of the 70-year piece, a period of relative peace and stability that began after World War II. This period was characterized by a rules-based world order, overseen by the United States and the Soviet Union, and then by the United States alone. However, Montefiore believes that this period is coming to an end, as evidenced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He argues that this invasion represents a return to a more traditional form of power politics, where nations are willing to use force to achieve their goals. Montefiore also discusses the resurgence of dynastic rule, arguing that families are increasingly playing a role in politics around the world. He cites examples such as the Kim family in North Korea, the Assad family in Syria, and the Aliyev family in Azerbaijan. Montefiore believes that this trend is a result of the failure of democratic institutions to provide stability and security for their citizens. He argues that when people feel that their governments are not working for them, they turn to families for a sense of belonging and security. Montefiore concludes by expressing cautious optimism about the future, arguing that human ingenuity and creativity can overcome the challenges facing the world. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on the present and working to create a better future for all.

Outlines

00:00:00

Introduction

This Chapter introduces Simon Sebag Montefiore, an acclaimed historian, and his book "The World: A Family History of Humanity." The episode focuses on the new conclusion added to the book, which discusses the end of the 70-year piece and the resurgence of dynastic rule.

00:01:29

Basil the Unibrow Horse Whisperer

This Chapter delves into the story of Basil, the first of the Macedonian dynasty in the Byzantine Empire. Basil's rise to power through his ability to calm and groom horses, his relationship with the emperor, and his eventual assassination of the emperor to seize power are discussed. This story highlights the unexpected ways in which individuals can shape history and the enduring nature of dynastic rule.

00:03:42

History as People and Events

This Chapter explores the importance of understanding history through the lens of individuals and their experiences. The discussion focuses on Basil the Unibrow and how his story reveals the role of personal connections, patronage, and the unexpected rise of individuals in shaping historical events. It also emphasizes the importance of considering the human element in history, beyond just events and dates.

00:05:38

The 70-Year Piece

This Chapter introduces the concept of the 70-year piece, a period of relative peace and stability in world history, roughly from 1945 to 2016. The chapter discusses the role of the United States and the Soviet Union, and then the United States alone, in maintaining order during this period. It also explores the factors that contributed to the creation of a rules-based world order, including the shock of World War II and the desire for a more peaceful future.

00:08:38

The End of the 70-Year Piece

This Chapter examines the potential end of the 70-year piece, using Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a key marker. The chapter discusses how Putin's decision to challenge the existing international order, fueled by his historical perspective and a perceived weakness in the West, has led to a shift in global power dynamics. It also explores the role of other nations, such as Iran and China, in challenging the rules-based world order.

00:14:13

The Resurgence of Dynastic Rule

This Chapter delves into the resurgence of dynastic rule in the world, arguing that families are increasingly playing a role in politics. The chapter discusses the examples of the Kim family in North Korea, the Assad family in Syria, and the Aliyev family in Azerbaijan, highlighting the enduring appeal of family power in times of instability and uncertainty.

00:32:01

The 70-Year Piece and Its Limitations

This Chapter explores the limitations of the 70-year piece, acknowledging that despite a period of relative peace and stability, millions of people died in conflicts and genocides around the world. The chapter emphasizes the importance of recognizing the global scope of history and the need to consider the experiences of all people, not just those in Western societies.

00:44:36

The Role of Capitalism

This Chapter examines the role of capitalism in the resurgence of dynastic rule, arguing that unfettered capitalism can contribute to social instability and the rise of family power. The chapter discusses the need for governments and businesses to address economic inequality and ensure that the benefits of capitalism are shared more equitably.

Keywords

Q&A

• What is the "70-year piece" and why does Simon Sebag Montefiore believe it is coming to an end?

  The "70-year piece" refers to a period of relative peace and stability in world history, roughly from 1945 to 2016, characterized by a rules-based world order overseen by the United States and the Soviet Union, and then by the United States alone. Montefiore believes this period is ending due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which he sees as a return to traditional power politics and a challenge to the existing international order.

• How does Montefiore explain the resurgence of dynastic rule in the world?

  Montefiore argues that the failure of democratic institutions to provide stability and security for their citizens leads people to turn to families for a sense of belonging and security. This, in turn, contributes to the rise of dynastic rule, where families increasingly play a role in politics.

• What role does Montefiore believe capitalism plays in the resurgence of dynastic rule?

  Montefiore argues that unfettered capitalism can contribute to social instability and the rise of family power. He emphasizes the need for governments and businesses to address economic inequality and ensure that the benefits of capitalism are shared more equitably.

• What is Montefiore's overall outlook on the future?

  While acknowledging the dangers posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and AI, Montefiore expresses cautious optimism about the future. He believes that human ingenuity and creativity can overcome these challenges, and that focusing on the present and working to create a better future for all is essential.

• What is the significance of Basil the Unibrow Horse Whisperer in Montefiore's book?

  Basil's story highlights the unexpected ways in which individuals can shape history and the enduring nature of dynastic rule. His rise to power through his ability to calm and groom horses, his relationship with the emperor, and his eventual assassination of the emperor to seize power demonstrate the unpredictable nature of history and the importance of considering the human element in historical events.

• What is Ibn Khaldun's concept of "Asabiya" and how does it relate to the current state of democracies?

  Ibn Khaldun's concept of "Asabiya" refers to social solidarity and cohesion, which he argued was essential for the stability and success of any society. Montefiore argues that Western democracies are currently facing a decline in "Asabiya," which is contributing to their instability and vulnerability.

• What is Montefiore's advice for navigating the present?

  Montefiore emphasizes the importance of focusing on the present and working to create a better future for all. He advises against dwelling on the past and instead focusing on how people want to live today.

Show Notes