<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Rain Coast’s report is about generally positive numbers, and not an index of Sitka’s well-being. It’s a contrast Meilani Schijvens is aware of. “Yeah, I’m sorry to tell you that your economy is doing great,” she said.</figcaption></figure><figure class="wp-block-audio"></figure>

First the bad news. In casual conversation, people often say that Sitka is a community of about 9,000 people, or maybe 10,000 if they’re feeling generous.

But that’s far from accurate these days. Sitka lost 800 people in the last ten years. That makes just about 8,200 residents.

“The last time that you were at this rate was in 1987,” said Meilani Schijvens, with Rain Coast Data, “and the second-to-last year where you were this low was in 1980. So you’re really at a population level of where you were 40 years ago.”

Meilani Schijvens crunched the numbers for the Sitka Economic Development Association. She said that it’s not just a population loss, it’s a population shift toward more older residents, and fewer residents of “prime working age,” or 19-59. The over-60 demographic in Sitka has increased by 650. And it’s happening across the region.

“It’s not just you Sitka, don’t worry,” Schijvens said. “Other communities in Southeast are struggling even more with this, including Wrangell, Prince of Wales, and Hoonah-Angoon – all of which have an average age that’s older than yours.”

Also disturbing: Alaska Natives are leaving Sitka faster than any other demographic.

A shrinking population wouldn’t typically result in more robust economic numbers for a community, but Sitka is working against the grain. Employment, earnings – even the size of the workforce – are all up. The economy is diverse, and most sectors, including tourism, healthcare, and construction have all grown.

The only wrinkle is that Schijvens’s data are from 2019-2023, and available numbers for this year-to-date are spotty. Commercial fishing, for example, remains Sitka’s largest employment sector, with 1,000 jobs and a total of $91 million in wages in 2023, but prices for several species have tanked this year (2024), there’s been a sell off of major processors across the region, and this trend isn’t fully reflected in the data. The scales were starting to tip last year (2023) however, when the largest harvest in a decade in Sitka paid about $10 million less than the year before (2022).

Schijvens says other communities fared worse.

 “So it wasn’t as tough of a hit in Sitka because you have high-value species that you’re also fishing for,” she said, “but it sounds like it was a tremendous amount of effort to get a lot less money. So obviously, very difficult on the seafood sector here.”

But as fishing is down, housing and construction are up. Per capita, Sitka leads the state in new housing units right now. All over town there is construction activity, but there’s also a story here that the numbers aren’t telling. Much of the boom is being driven by SEARHC constructing housing for healthcare workers, and some of it is summer homes built by nonresident owners. Nevertheless, these factors, plus the pressure of high interest rates, have tipped the housing market slightly toward buyers – sort of.

“And in the last two years the average value of a single family home in Sitka has decreased by 19 percent,” Schijvens said, “and you’re actually all the way back to 2017 values when it comes to the average value of a single family home – but it’s still a half million dollars.”

Only four new short-term rentals have opened in Sitka in the last two years, making a total of 137, which Schijvens says is about the Alaska average. The big pinch comes in summer, when Sitka’s workforce grows by 2,200 people. Schjivens says what once was Sitka’s year-round housing crisis, is now primarily a summer housing crisis.

There are plenty who might disagree with this assessment, however. First-time buyers don’t have many options in Sitka, and young families are frustrated both  by the lack of housing and childcare, which has now become a priority issue in the business community.

These are just numbers after all, and not necessarily an accurate index of Sitka’s well-being. For example, the latest information from the state shows that the inflation rate in Alaska has dropped to 1.5 percent – below the national average. Yet a routine trip to the grocery store still stings compared to shopping in the lower 48, or even in Anchorage. This, Schijivens says, is Sitka’s “island economy,” and that’s not going to change, but it also shouldn’t overshadow a promising turnaround over the last four years. Schijvens was apologetic that she didn’t have more bad news.

“Yeah,  I’m sorry to tell you that your economy is doing great,” she said.

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