In this episode, retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer unpacks President Donald Trump’s dramatic shift on Ukraine, announced at the UN General Assembly. Just weeks after the Administration alluded that Ukraine might trade land for peace, Trump declared that Russia cannot win this war and that Ukraine could restore its pre-war borders with U.S. and European backing. This stark reversal raises critical questions about what triggered the change—and what it means for Moscow. We explore how Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes are crippling Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, sparking fuel shortages in major cities and straining the country’s war economy. With Russia’s sovereign wealth fund running low and casualties topping 1.1 million, pressure is mounting inside Russia in ways Vladimir Putin cannot ignore. We also examine historical parallels to rapid regime change in Russian history and what this shift might signal for the future of the conflict.

Takeaways:

·      Trump reversed his stance on Ukraine, rejecting land-for-peace deals.

·      He now argues Ukraine can fully restore its sovereign borders.

·      NATO allies were urged to shoot down Russian aircraft violating airspace.

·      Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes have crippled Russian energy assets.

·      Fuel shortages in Moscow highlight war’s impact on Russian elites.

·      Russia’s sovereign wealth fund is running dangerously low.

·      Over 1.1 million Russian casualties have strained the war effort.

·      Historical precedent shows major Russian regime shifts can come suddenly.

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