September 30, 2025.

In Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) received a temporary reprieve as the centrist Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew groups confirmed they will not support the upcoming two votes of no-confidence in the European Parliament. This folding on the censure motions is primarily a strategic, temporary truce, as the allied groups seek to pressure VDL to grant concessions during negotiations over the Commission’s 2026 work program. Although frustratingly, some Socialist MEPs privately admit VDL is "the best we can have" despite underlying dissatisfaction, German Greens chief Erik Marquardt cautioned that pursuing change could "turn the wrong way". Leveraging this political leverage, S&D MEPs are pushing the Opatija Declaration, a "wish list" aimed at shifting the EU agenda back toward workers' rights to combat rising prices and AI-fueled job instability. Across the Channel, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attempting to reverse his "flagging premiership" by delivering a crucial conference speech that will seek to frame the nation's political future as a "fork in the road" between him and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. To counter the Reform threat, Starmer's address is expected to be heavy on politics and light on policy, requiring "decisions that are not cost-free or easy," particularly regarding migration and welfare cuts, a stance that has created deep discomfort among some Labour MPs.

Globally, the immediate focus is on the newly announced 20-point US peace plan for Gaza, which was jointly announced and supported by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This proposal includes elements such as an immediate end to the conflict, the release of all Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the territory's temporary administration by a technocratic, apolitical committee. Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has been named as the first member of the new "Board of Peace" that will oversee the experts' government. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, have endorsed the plan and urged Hamas to immediately release all hostages and accept the framework. However, the militant group's agreement remains uncertain, and Netanyahu has vowed to "finish the job" if Hamas rejects the deal, indicating that the path to peace still includes the threat of destruction. Adding to geopolitical concerns, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that Germany is in a "completely different world" where the current status is "not in war, but we are also no longer in peace," citing increasingly severe Russian air violations via drones across Europe. The instability extends to the US domestic sphere, where a government shutdown appears "all but inevitable" after leaders failed to reach a funding agreement with Trump.