The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning
Digest
This episode of The New Yorker Radio Hour delves into the 2024 presidential election, examining the potential impact of recent events on the race. The episode begins by exploring the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, drawing comparisons to historical precedents like the shootings of Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. The discussion highlights the highly polarized political climate and the difficulty in predicting how the event will affect voter sentiment. The episode then shifts its focus to the world of polling, examining how pollsters gather data, the challenges they face in a rapidly changing media landscape, and the importance of understanding the nuances of polling data. The discussion features insights from Ann Selzer, a renowned pollster known for her accuracy. The episode highlights the challenges pollsters face, including declining response rates, the rise of cell phones, and the increasing difficulty in obtaining accurate samples. They must also contend with the proliferation of partisan polls and online polls that may not be reliable. The episode concludes by discussing key demographic trends that could influence the outcome of the 2024 election, including the changing sentiments of black voters and Latino voters, the increasing share of young voters who identify as independent, and the shift of voters without a college degree towards the Republican Party.
Outlines
The 2024 Presidential Election: A Look Ahead
This episode of The New Yorker Radio Hour focuses on the 2024 presidential election and the impact of recent events, including the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the ongoing movement to convince President Biden to drop out of the race.
The Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Trump
The episode explores the potential impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on the election, drawing comparisons to historical precedents like the shooting of Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. The discussion highlights the highly polarized political climate and the difficulty in predicting how the event will affect voter sentiment.
The Art and Science of Polling in a Changing Media Landscape
The episode delves into the world of polling, examining how pollsters gather data, the challenges they face in a rapidly changing media landscape, and the importance of understanding the nuances of polling data. The discussion features insights from Ann Selzer, a renowned pollster known for her accuracy.
Keywords
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. He is a controversial figure known for his outspoken views and business dealings.
Joe Biden
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is an American politician who is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. He previously served as the 47th vice president from 2009 to 2017 under President Barack Obama.
2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election, in which voters will elect the president and vice president of the United States.
Polling
Polling is a method of systematically questioning a sample of people to gather information about their opinions, beliefs, and attitudes. It is widely used in political campaigns, market research, and social science research.
Swing States
Swing states are states in the United States that are considered to be competitive in presidential elections. They are often targeted by campaigns because they can determine the outcome of the election.
Electoral College
The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, constituted every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president of the United States.
Q&A
How might the assassination attempt on Donald Trump affect the 2024 presidential election?
It is difficult to predict the exact impact of the assassination attempt on the election. Some experts believe it could lead to a \"bump\" in Trump's polling numbers due to the highly polarized political climate, while others argue that the effect will be short-lived.
What are the key challenges facing pollsters in today's media landscape?
Pollsters face challenges such as declining response rates, the rise of cell phones, and the increasing difficulty in obtaining accurate samples. They must also contend with the proliferation of partisan polls and online polls that may not be reliable.
What are some key demographic trends that could influence the outcome of the 2024 election?
Key demographic trends to watch include the changing sentiments of black voters and Latino voters, the increasing share of young voters who identify as independent, and the shift of voters without a college degree towards the Republican Party.
Show Notes
The movement to persuade President Biden—long after the primaries—to drop out of the Presidential race is unprecedented. So is the candidacy of a convicted felon. But this election season went from startling to shocking with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the death of a bystander. Despite the unknowns, the contours of the race are becoming clear, the CNN data journalist Harry Enten tells Clare Malone. President Biden’s support in national polls following his disastrous performance in the June debate slipped just slightly. But in key swing states, Biden’s support has ebbed to a point that has terrified Democrats. Malone spoke with Enten while he was covering the Republican National Convention, in Milwaukee. She asked Enten about how the attempt on Ronald Reagan’s life affected his favorability. Malone also spoke with the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who runs polling for the Des Moines Register. Selzer explains how the polls know what they know—even when so many people don’t pick up their phones.
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