The Trump Campaign’s Theory of Victory
7Digest
Tim Alberta, a staff writer at The Atlantic, provides insights into the Republican National Convention and the Trump campaign's strategy for victory. He describes the mood at the convention as a victory party, with a high level of confidence and arrogance among Republicans. Alberta attributes this to the Trump campaign's successful framing of the election as a battle between strength and weakness, with Biden being portrayed as weak and Trump as strong. He highlights the Trump campaign's focus on mobilizing low-propensity voters, particularly white working-class men and women, and their belief that they can win over traditionally Democratic voters like young people and black men. Alberta also discusses the Trump campaign's shift away from traditional get-out-the-vote efforts towards a massive election integrity unit, which he believes poses a significant risk to down-ballot Republicans. He analyzes the Trump campaign's decision to embrace vote-by-mail, crediting Susie Wiles for convincing Trump to change his stance. Alberta concludes by discussing the significance of JD Vance's selection as Trump's running mate, suggesting that it signals a move towards a more populist and ideologically driven Republican Party.
Outlines
Introduction
This Chapter introduces the episode and the guest, Tim Alberta, a staff writer at The Atlantic, who has been embedded with the Trump campaign and is attending the Republican National Convention.
The Mood at the Republican National Convention
This Chapter discusses the mood at the Republican National Convention, which Alberta describes as a victory party with a high level of confidence and arrogance among Republicans. He attributes this to the Trump campaign's successful framing of the election as a battle between strength and weakness, with Biden being portrayed as weak and Trump as strong.
The Impact of the Assassination Attempt
This Chapter explores the impact of the assassination attempt on the Republican Party. Alberta argues that it has reinforced Trump's cult of personality and created an aura of invincibility around him. He notes the emergence of a messianic undertone surrounding Trump, with speakers at the convention suggesting that God has his hands on him.
The Republican Campaign's Narrative
This Chapter examines the Republican campaign's narrative for the 2024 election. Alberta explains that the Trump campaign is focusing on the contrast between strength and weakness, portraying Biden as weak and Trump as strong. He highlights the effectiveness of this narrative in attacking Biden's age and perceived decline.
The Trump Campaign's Professionalization
This Chapter discusses the professionalization of the Trump campaign, particularly the roles of Chris Lasavita and Susie Wiles, the co-managers of the campaign. Alberta describes their approach as highly focused on defeating Biden specifically, rather than a generic Democrat. He highlights their sophisticated operations and their concern about a potential Democratic replacement for Biden.
The Trump Campaign's Key Strategists
This Chapter provides detailed profiles of Chris Lasavita and Susie Wiles, the co-managers of the Trump campaign. Alberta describes Wiles as a highly competent Republican operative who has effectively increased the Republican party's vote share among non-white demographic groups in Florida. He explains Lasavita's background as a hard-charging, attack-oriented Republican operative known for his work on the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth campaign in 2004.
Trump's Shifting Priorities
This Chapter examines two examples of how the Trump campaign has both submitted to and moved Trump on key issues. Alberta discusses Trump's decision to shift the Republican National Committee's priorities away from get-out-the-vote efforts towards a massive election integrity unit, which he believes is a risky move. He also highlights Trump's embrace of vote-by-mail, crediting Wiles for convincing him to change his stance.
The Trump Campaign's Focus on Low-Propensity Voters
This Chapter delves into the Trump campaign's strategy of mobilizing low-propensity voters. Alberta explains that the campaign is targeting two groups: white working-class men and women who have not voted for Trump before and traditionally Democratic voters like young people and black men. He discusses the campaign's belief that they can win over these voters by highlighting the perceived failures of the Democratic Party.
The Republican Party's Transformation
This Chapter explores the transformation of the Republican Party under Trump. Alberta argues that the party has become entirely Trump's, with a shift in its image, makeup, and messaging. He highlights the increasing dominance of populist and nationalist elements within the party and the diminishing influence of traditional Republican figures.
Keywords
Republican National Convention
The Republican National Convention is a quadrennial event held by the Republican Party to formally nominate its presidential and vice presidential candidates. It is a major event in American politics, attracting significant media attention and public interest. The convention typically features speeches from prominent party members, including the presidential and vice presidential nominees, as well as platform debates and other events designed to energize the party's base and promote its agenda.
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. He is a controversial figure known for his outspoken and often inflammatory rhetoric, his business dealings, and his political career. Trump's presidency was marked by significant political and social divisions, as well as a number of scandals and controversies. He is currently running for president again in 2024.
Joe Biden
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is an American politician who served as the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2023. He previously served as the 47th vice president from 2009 to 2017 under President Barack Obama. Biden is a member of the Democratic Party and has a long history of public service, having served in the United States Senate from 1973 to 2009. He is known for his moderate political views and his ability to build consensus.
Chris Lasavita
Chris Lasavita is a Republican political strategist and operative who has worked on numerous campaigns, including Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign. He is known for his aggressive and attack-oriented style, and his work on the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth campaign in 2004, which targeted John Kerry's war record. Lasavita is a key figure in the Trump campaign's strategy to defeat Biden.
Susie Wiles
Susie Wiles is a Republican political strategist and operative who has worked on numerous campaigns, including Donald Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. She is known for her expertise in Florida politics and her ability to mobilize non-traditional Republican voters, particularly among Hispanic communities. Wiles is a key figure in the Trump campaign's strategy to win Florida and other key states.
JD Vance
J.D. Vance is an American author, venture capitalist, and politician who is the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election. He is known for his book "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis," which explored the struggles of working-class white families in Appalachia. Vance is a controversial figure who has been criticized for his past comments about Donald Trump and his support for some of Trump's policies. His selection as Trump's running mate is seen as a signal of the Republican Party's shift towards a more populist and nationalist agenda.
Election Integrity
Election integrity refers to the assurance that elections are conducted fairly and accurately, with all eligible voters able to cast their ballots and have their votes counted correctly. It encompasses a range of issues, including voter registration, ballot security, election administration, and the prevention of voter fraud. The concept of election integrity has become a major point of contention in American politics, with Republicans often raising concerns about voter fraud and Democrats arguing that such concerns are unfounded and used to suppress voter turnout.
Vote-by-Mail
Vote-by-mail, also known as absentee voting, is a method of voting in which voters cast their ballots by mail rather than in person at a polling place. It is a common practice in many countries, and has become increasingly popular in the United States, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vote-by-mail has been the subject of much debate, with Republicans often expressing concerns about its potential for fraud and Democrats arguing that it is a safe and secure way to vote.
Populism
Populism is a political ideology that emphasizes the common person and their struggles against a perceived elite. Populist movements often appeal to the emotions and anxieties of ordinary people, and tend to be characterized by a rejection of traditional political institutions and a focus on issues such as economic inequality, immigration, and cultural change. Populism has become a significant force in global politics in recent years, with populist leaders emerging in countries such as the United States, Brazil, and the Philippines.
Q&A
What is the mood at the Republican National Convention, and what factors are contributing to it?
The mood at the Republican National Convention is one of a victory party, with a high level of confidence and arrogance among Republicans. This is attributed to the Trump campaign's successful framing of the election as a battle between strength and weakness, with Biden being portrayed as weak and Trump as strong.
How has the assassination attempt impacted the Republican Party and Trump's image?
The assassination attempt has reinforced Trump's cult of personality and created an aura of invincibility around him. It has also led to the emergence of a messianic undertone surrounding Trump, with speakers at the convention suggesting that God has his hands on him.
What is the Trump campaign's key narrative for the 2024 election, and how is it being used to attack Biden?
The Trump campaign's key narrative is the contrast between strength and weakness, portraying Biden as weak and Trump as strong. This narrative is being used to attack Biden's age, perceived decline, and his handling of issues like the economy and the Southern border.
How has the Trump campaign become more professionalized, and what are the roles of Chris Lasavita and Susie Wiles?
The Trump campaign has become more professionalized, with a highly focused approach on defeating Biden specifically. Chris Lasavita and Susie Wiles, the co-managers of the campaign, are key figures in this effort. Lasavita is known for his aggressive and attack-oriented style, while Wiles is known for her expertise in Florida politics and her ability to mobilize non-traditional Republican voters.
What are the two key examples of how the Trump campaign has both submitted to and moved Trump on key issues?
The Trump campaign has both submitted to and moved Trump on key issues. One example is Trump's decision to shift the Republican National Committee's priorities away from get-out-the-vote efforts towards a massive election integrity unit. Another example is Trump's embrace of vote-by-mail, which he initially opposed but was convinced to support by Susie Wiles.
What is the Trump campaign's strategy for mobilizing low-propensity voters, and what are the two groups they are targeting?
The Trump campaign is targeting two groups of low-propensity voters: white working-class men and women who have not voted for Trump before and traditionally Democratic voters like young people and black men. They believe they can win over these voters by highlighting the perceived failures of the Democratic Party.
How has the Republican Party transformed under Trump, and what are the key changes in its image, makeup, and messaging?
The Republican Party has become entirely Trump's, with a shift in its image, makeup, and messaging. There is an increasing dominance of populist and nationalist elements within the party, and the influence of traditional Republican figures has diminished. The party is moving towards a more populist and ideologically driven agenda.
What is the significance of JD Vance's selection as Trump's running mate, and what does it signal about the future of the Republican Party?
JD Vance's selection as Trump's running mate signals a move towards a more populist and ideologically driven Republican Party. Vance is seen as a representative of the populist wing of the party, and his selection suggests that Trump is seeking to solidify his control over the party and move it in a more nationalist direction.
Show Notes
The Trump campaign isn’t just expecting to win this election; it’s expecting to win it in a landslide. And top Trump campaign officials were feeling that confident even before Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance. So what’s their strategy to achieve the blowout they’re imagining? And is their confidence justified?
Tim Alberta is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of “American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump.” He recently spent months profiling Trump’s campaign managers, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita. In this conversation, Alberta offers an inside look at the Trump campaign and their theory of victory. We discuss how the campaign has tailored its messaging to capitalize on Joe Biden’s weaknesses; LaCivita’s and Wiles’s personal backgrounds and approaches to the campaign; what Trump’s vice-presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance, signals about Trump’s vision for his presidency; and more.
Mentioned:
“Trump Is Planning for a Landslide Win” by Tim Alberta
“How J.D. Vance Won Over Donald Trump” by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman
Book Recommendations:
Tired of Winning by Jonathan Karl
Kingdom of Rage by Elizabeth Neumann
Romney by McKay Coppins
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
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What a cynical, pathetic episode. His theory is that the Republicans and a new Trump Administration will be efficient facists all rowing together. Making America Gag Again!