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The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine

The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine

Update: 2024-09-28
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This podcast delves into the complexities of the ongoing war in Ukraine, examining the evolving role of drones in modern warfare, the human cost of the conflict, and the challenges facing both Ukraine and its Western allies in securing a lasting peace. The podcast highlights Ukraine's innovative use of small attack drones and AI for targeting, contrasting this with Russia's reliance on traditional reconnaissance drones. It also explores the harsh realities of combat for Ukrainian soldiers, including the lack of adequate weapons and the psychological toll of constant danger. The podcast examines the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, a mining town and transport hub, and the challenges facing Ukraine in defending it against Russian advances. It also introduces the drone operators, a new breed of warriors who are playing a crucial role in the war, highlighting their skills, dedication, and the impact they have on the battlefield. The podcast explores the state of Ukraine's drone capabilities, comparing them to Russia's and revealing that while Russia may have an advantage in traditional reconnaissance drones, Ukraine is innovating rapidly in the use of small attack drones and AI. It emphasizes the need for Western funding to support Ukraine's drone industry, highlighting the fact that Ukraine can produce better drones more cheaply than their partners and that individual brigade commanders are crowdfunding to purchase drones directly from manufacturers. The podcast reveals the grim reality of the situation, with senior officials acknowledging that Pokrovsk is likely lost and that Ukraine lacks the capacity to push the Russians out. It emphasizes the need to build realistic defenses to protect what Ukraine currently has. The podcast focuses on Pavlovrad, a town near the front lines, and the impact of the war on its residents, highlighting the constant threat of missiles and the growing number of refugees from eastern Ukraine. It explores the changing attitudes towards peace in Ukraine, with a growing number of people open to a negotiated end to the fighting, but also highlights the division within the population, with some still determined to fight for total victory and others seeking an end to the bloodshed. The podcast examines the political dilemma facing President Zelensky in defining victory, highlighting the difficulty of explaining to the Ukrainian people the possibility of territorial concessions and the need for a political solution to end the war. It explores the future security of Ukraine, focusing on the need for a strong military force and interoperability with NATO member countries, highlighting the importance of deterring Russia from future aggression and the lessons learned from the war. The podcast showcases the resilience of Ukrainian medical personnel, highlighting the creation of an underground operating theatre near the front lines and revealing the challenges of evacuating wounded soldiers and the adaptation of medical practices to the realities of the war. It examines the potential impact of the 2024 American election on Ukraine, exploring the different perspectives on the role of the US in supporting Ukraine, with some arguing that a Trump presidency would be detrimental and others believing that a Biden administration has been indecisive. The podcast explores the potential for Europe to step up and support Ukraine in the war, highlighting the opportunity for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities and learn from Ukraine's experience. It presents the perspective of a Ukrainian soldier on the concept of victory, revealing the deep-seated desire for a complete victory and the potential for disappointment if territorial concessions are made. The podcast highlights the risks of a fractured Ukraine, warning that the war cannot continue indefinitely at its current intensity and emphasizing the need for a realistic approach to peace negotiations and the importance of providing Ukraine with the necessary support to defend its territory.

Outlines

00:00:53
The Evolving Nature of Warfare: Drones and AI in Ukraine

This chapter explores the evolving role of drones in the Ukraine war, highlighting Ukraine's innovative use of small attack drones and AI for targeting. It contrasts this with Russia's reliance on traditional reconnaissance drones and their struggle to counter Ukraine's drone capabilities.

00:02:21
The Human Cost of War: Ukrainian Soldiers on the Front Lines

This chapter delves into the human cost of the war, focusing on the experiences of Ukrainian soldiers near the front lines. It reveals the harsh realities of combat, including the lack of adequate weapons and the psychological toll of constant danger.

00:04:41
The Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk and the Challenges Ahead

This chapter examines the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, a mining town and transport hub, and the challenges facing Ukraine in defending it. It highlights the threat of Russian forces advancing across the flat landscape and the looming threat of winter.

00:05:33
The Drone Operators: A New Breed of Warriors

This chapter introduces the drone operators, a new breed of warriors who are playing a crucial role in the war. It highlights their skills, dedication, and the impact they have on the battlefield.

00:08:17
Ukraine's Drone Capabilities: A Race Against Time

This chapter explores the state of Ukraine's drone capabilities, comparing them to Russia's. It reveals that while Russia may have an advantage in traditional reconnaissance drones, Ukraine is innovating rapidly in the use of small attack drones and AI.

00:10:00
Funding Ukraine's Drone Industry: A Vital Need

This chapter emphasizes the need for Western funding to support Ukraine's drone industry. It highlights the fact that Ukraine can produce better drones more cheaply than their partners and that individual brigade commanders are crowdfunding to purchase drones directly from manufacturers.

00:11:59
The Reality of the Situation: Pokrovsk in Trouble and the Need for Realistic Defenses

This chapter reveals the grim reality of the situation, with senior officials acknowledging that Pokrovsk is likely lost and that Ukraine lacks the capacity to push the Russians out. It emphasizes the need to build realistic defenses to protect what Ukraine currently has.

00:12:51
The Impact of War on Civilians: Pavlovrad on the Brink

This chapter focuses on Pavlovrad, a town near the front lines, and the impact of the war on its residents. It highlights the constant threat of missiles and the growing number of refugees from eastern Ukraine.

Keywords

Drone Warfare


The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in warfare, encompassing reconnaissance, surveillance, targeting, and attack capabilities. Drones have revolutionized modern warfare, offering advantages in precision, range, and cost-effectiveness.

AI Targeting


The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in targeting systems, enabling drones and other weapons to autonomously identify and engage targets. AI targeting raises ethical concerns about the potential for unintended consequences and the loss of human control.

Electronic Jamming


The use of electronic signals to disrupt or interfere with enemy communications, radar, and other electronic systems. Electronic jamming is a crucial tactic in modern warfare, used to protect friendly forces and degrade enemy capabilities.

Golden Hour


The critical first hour after a traumatic injury, during which prompt medical attention is crucial for survival and minimizing long-term complications. The golden hour is a key concept in battlefield medicine, emphasizing the need for rapid evacuation and treatment.

Meat Grinder


A term used to describe a brutal and relentless battle characterized by high casualties and little regard for human life. The meat grinder is often associated with trench warfare and other forms of attrition warfare.

Partisan Warfare


A form of irregular warfare conducted by civilians or small groups operating behind enemy lines. Partisan warfare often involves sabotage, ambushes, and guerrilla tactics, aimed at disrupting enemy operations and undermining their morale.

Interoperability


The ability of different military forces to operate together seamlessly, sharing information, equipment, and tactics. Interoperability is crucial for effective coalition warfare, enabling different countries to work together effectively.

Peace Deal


A formal agreement between warring parties to end hostilities and establish a lasting peace. Peace deals often involve compromises on territorial claims, political structures, and other issues.

Security Guarantee


A commitment by one or more countries to protect another country from aggression or other threats. Security guarantees can take various forms, including military alliances, treaties, and diplomatic assurances.

Q&A

  • How has the use of drones changed the nature of warfare in Ukraine?

    Drones have become a crucial weapon in the Ukraine war, allowing for precision strikes and reconnaissance. Ukraine's innovative use of small attack drones and AI targeting has given them an edge over Russia's reliance on traditional reconnaissance drones.

  • What are the challenges facing Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines?

    Ukrainian soldiers face a lack of adequate weapons, constant danger, and the psychological toll of prolonged combat. They are often forced to fight with outdated equipment and face a relentless enemy with superior numbers.

  • What is the strategic importance of Pokrovsk and what are the challenges in defending it?

    Pokrovsk is a strategically important mining town and transport hub. Ukraine faces challenges in defending it due to the flat landscape, which offers few natural defenses, and the looming threat of winter.

  • How is Ukraine's drone industry developing and what role does Western funding play?

    Ukraine is developing its own drone industry, producing better drones more cheaply than their partners. However, they need Western funding to scale up production and meet the demands of the war.

  • What are the different perspectives on the concept of victory in Ukraine?

    Some Ukrainians are determined to fight for total victory, pushing the Russians out of all occupied territory. Others are seeking a negotiated end to the war, even if it means territorial concessions.

  • What are the key factors that will determine the future security of Ukraine?

    Ukraine's future security depends on building a strong military force, interoperability with NATO member countries, and deterring Russia from future aggression. NATO membership is seen as a crucial guarantee against Russian aggression.

  • How has the war impacted the lives of civilians in Ukraine?

    The war has had a devastating impact on civilian life in Ukraine, with cities regularly under attack and residents facing the threat of missiles, drones, and power outages. The psychological toll of the war is also significant, with many Ukrainians experiencing fear, anxiety, and displacement.

  • What are the potential implications of the 2024 American election for Ukraine?

    The outcome of the 2024 American election could have a significant impact on Ukraine's future. Some believe that a Trump presidency would be detrimental to Ukraine's interests, while others believe that a Biden administration has been indecisive in its support.

  • What is the potential for Europe to step up and support Ukraine in the war?

    Europe has the potential to play a more significant role in supporting Ukraine, both militarily and economically. This could involve providing more weapons, financial assistance, and training to Ukrainian forces.

Show Notes

Ukraine’s President has been in New York this week.  With a victory plan in his pocket, he’s been shoring up support at the UN and among America’s presidential contenders.

On the world stage Mr Zelensky presents a united front but back home things are a little more patchy. It's crunch time for Ukraine. Winter is coming, some Western partners are tiring, Ukrainians are tiring too. In this special episode of The Weekend Intelligence our Editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes travels to Ukraine to speak to generals, soldiers and civilians to find out what lies ahead.


To listen every week and enjoy all our podcasts you'll need a subscription to Economist Podcasts Plus. Follow the link in the show notes for a free trial


To hear more about Ukraine, join our live event on October 25th. Our editors will discuss the situation on the battlefield, the impact of the American election and the diplomacy in the background. To sign up, go to: economist.com/registertoday

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The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine

The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine