Listeners, welcome to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, where we cut through the noise on cross‑border trade so you can follow how U.S. and Trump-era tariff moves are reshaping Canada’s economy.

The big story is uncertainty. According to The Canadian Press reporting in the Winnipeg Sun, the Bank of Canada has spent much of this year trying to navigate the fallout from new U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures, warning that these trade actions risk a “stagflationary shock” — weaker growth combined with higher inflation driven partly by tariff costs being passed through to consumers. Governor Tiff Macklem has highlighted how tariff-related price distortions have even made it harder for the bank to read its own core inflation indicators, one reason markets now expect the policy rate to hold at about 2.25 percent as we head into 2026.

On the U.S. side, the Trump administration’s tariff regime is still evolving. AOL’s recent analysis of the 2025 tariff package notes that Washington has imposed a 10 percent blanket tariff on almost all U.S. imports, but Canada, along with Mexico and China, is temporarily exempt from that across‑the‑board rate. That exemption matters: it preserves a cost advantage for Canadian exporters into the U.S. market at a time when many other countries are paying more at the border. But it is also fragile, because the White House has signaled that nothing about North American trade is off the table.

Trump has repeatedly tied those exemptions and any future tariff hikes to ongoing talks over the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement. In recent comments carried by News9 Live, he said that the United States may renegotiate USMCA again or even exit the deal altogether, framing Canada and Mexico as “very tough traders” and insisting that if the United States does not get better terms, it will walk away. Firstpost reports that after a short trilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump said trade discussions with Canada are continuing and, in his words, “we’ll work it out,” even as he has suspended some talks in response to political disputes and threatened higher duties on Canadian goods without yet implementing them.

For Canadian businesses and workers, analysts are urging a sober look at the real numbers. The Western Producer quotes market strategist Moez Utarid as saying that while headline U.S. tariff rates were advertised as high as 25 percent, the effective rate has been closer to 11 percent because of carve‑outs and targeting. He notes that the United States largely spared critical Canadian exports such as potash and certain agricultural and strategic inputs, using tariffs more as “calculated leverage” than a blunt trade war. Still, he warns there is no guarantee tariffs will be rolled back, and Canadian producers should plan for a world where North American trade rules can shift quickly with U.S. politics.

For now, Canada’s tariff landscape with the U.S. is defined by exemptions that could disappear, a trade deal facing a mandated 2026 review, and a central bank trying to steer the economy through price shocks partly fueled by cross‑border duties and supply‑chain shifts. We will keep tracking any moves on blanket U.S. rates, sector‑specific tariffs affecting Canadian exports, and the political brinkmanship around USMCA that could reset the rules again.

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