Wargaming a Taiwan invasion scenario: Lyle Goldstein on the CSIS wargame “The First Battle of the Next War”
Update: 2023-08-17
Description
This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Lyle Goldstein, director for China engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities and previously a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught for 20 years. Lyle offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings.
01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS
04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance
09:09 – What is the value of wargaming?
13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency
17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game
22:05 – How much agency do the players have?
24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame?
26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame
31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation
38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions
47:37 – Will we get a warning?
A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.
Recommendations:
CSIS Report: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Lyle: Yin Yu Tang in Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts
Kaiser: The Story of Civilization [Volumes 1 to 11] by Will & Ariel Durant
Our Oriental Heritage: The Story of Civilization, Volume 1 by Will Durant
Mentioned:
Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry by Lyle J. Goldstein
01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS
04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance
09:09 – What is the value of wargaming?
13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency
17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game
22:05 – How much agency do the players have?
24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame?
26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame
31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation
38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions
47:37 – Will we get a warning?
A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.
Recommendations:
CSIS Report: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Lyle: Yin Yu Tang in Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts
Kaiser: The Story of Civilization [Volumes 1 to 11] by Will & Ariel Durant
Our Oriental Heritage: The Story of Civilization, Volume 1 by Will Durant
Mentioned:
Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry by Lyle J. Goldstein
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