Corporate Earnings and a Broadening Market

One of the most compelling themes as we transition from 2025 into 2026 is the continued strength of corporate earnings. Estimated 12-month S&P 500 operating margins have climbed to historically impressive levels, reinforcing the idea that Corporate America remains on solid financial footing. As has been noted, a recession accompanied by positive earnings growth would be unprecedented, and that matters. Strong earnings not only support near-term market stability but also create a longer runway for continued performance. Beyond earnings strength alone, another encouraging development is the broadening of market participation. Over the last several years, market returns have been dominated by a small group of large-cap technology stocks. That concentration has been a frequent concern for investors. Encouragingly, earnings growth among the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 is now expected to converge with that of the so-called “Magnificent Seven.” This shift suggests that market leadership may become more balanced in 2026. If that trend continues, it could represent one of the most important investment narratives of the coming year and a meaningful opportunity as portfolios are positioned for the future.

The Federal Reserve and the Flow-Through to the Economy

While earnings and market breadth tell one part of the story, monetary policy remains a critical variable. The Federal Reserve recently concluded its final meeting of the year with a 25-basis-point rate cut, placing the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. More significant than the cut itself was the language used by the Fed, signaling that rates are now within a plausible estimate of neutral. In practical terms, this suggests a likely pause in rate cuts in the near term. From our perspective, that pause is a positive development. It allows time for previously implemented cuts to work their way through the economy. Short-term rates affect savers, but long-term rates, where businesses and individuals borrow, are what truly drive economic activity. One area we are watching particularly closely is the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate. While the U.S. government may borrow near 4%, many individuals are still borrowing at rates above 6%, creating a wider-than-average spread. Historically, that spread averages closer to 1.77%. Even without dramatic declines in Treasury yields, a return to historical norms could significantly lower mortgage rates and materially improve affordability for borrowers. A stable Fed, combined with time for rate cuts to flow through to long-term borrowing costs, could provide meaningful relief to households and businesses alike. Importantly, if the economy remains strong, with healthy earnings and resilient markets, the Fed does not need to act aggressively. In that context, a pause becomes a signal of confidence rather than concern.

Greg Powell, CIMA®

President and CEO

Wealth Consultant

Email Greg Powell here

Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®

Managing Director

Wealth Consultant

Email Bobby Norman here

Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®

Chief Investment Officer

Wealth Consultant

Email Trey Booth here

Ty Miller, AIF®

Vice President

Wealth Consultant

Email Ty Miller here

Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.

No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.

Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.

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