Weighting For Election Day
2Digest
This episode of the 538 Politics Podcast delves into the intricacies of the 2024 presidential race, examining the close margins, the use of polling methods, and the potential impact of external factors like hurricanes. The podcast begins by discussing the tight race, highlighting the closeness of the polls in battleground states and the potential for a close election. It then explores the controversial practice of "waiting by recalled vote" in polling, where pollsters ask respondents about their past vote to ensure accurate representation of past voters. The podcast examines the debate surrounding this technique, with critics arguing that it's too blunt an instrument and may lead to inaccurate results. The podcast then shifts its focus to the political implications of recent hurricanes in the Southeast, highlighting the partisan divide in perceptions of the government's response and the lack of a clear impact on voter opinion. Finally, the podcast discusses the significance of campaign events, particularly in the final weeks of the election, and concludes that while they may generate media attention and fundraising, they have little impact on voter behavior.
Outlines
The 2024 Presidential Race: Close Margins, Polling Methods, and External Factors
This chapter discusses the tight 2024 presidential race, the use of past vote data in polling, the impact of hurricanes on voter opinion, and the significance of campaign events.
The Debate Over "Waiting by Recalled Vote" in Polling
This chapter delves into the controversial practice of "waiting by recalled vote" in polling, where pollsters ask respondents who they voted for in the previous election to ensure accurate representation of past voters.
Hurricanes and the Election: A Partisan Divide
This chapter examines the political implications of recent hurricanes in the Southeast, highlighting the partisan divide in perceptions of the government's response and the lack of a clear impact on voter opinion.
The Overrated Impact of Campaign Events
This chapter discusses the significance of campaign events, particularly in the final weeks of the election, and concludes that while they may generate media attention and fundraising, they have little impact on voter behavior.
Keywords
Waiting by Recalled Vote
A polling technique where respondents are asked about their past vote to ensure accurate representation of past voters. It's controversial due to potential inaccuracies in recall and the assumption of a stable electorate.
Campaign Events
Public appearances and rallies by candidates, often seen as a way to mobilize supporters and influence voters. However, research suggests they have limited impact on actual voting behavior.
Hurricane Response
The government's actions and policies in the aftermath of a hurricane, often a subject of political debate and scrutiny. The recent hurricanes in the Southeast have highlighted the partisan divide in perceptions of the government's effectiveness.
2024 Presidential Election
The upcoming presidential election in the United States, which is expected to be closely contested.
Polling Methods
Techniques used to gather information about public opinion, including surveys, interviews, and focus groups.
Voter Behavior
The actions and decisions of voters, including their choice of candidates, their participation in elections, and their attitudes towards political issues.
Q&A
What is the current state of the 2024 presidential race according to the polls?
The race is incredibly close, with every battleground state separated by less than a point, except for Arizona where Trump leads by two points. This closeness is similar to past close elections, but the polls are more accurate than in previous cycles.
What is the debate surrounding "waiting by recalled vote" in polling?
Some pollsters use this technique to ensure accurate representation of past voters, but critics argue it's too blunt an instrument and assumes a stable electorate. It may lead to underestimating Trump voters or getting the wrong type of Trump voters.
How are the recent hurricanes in the Southeast impacting the election?
The hurricanes have become a political talking point, with a partisan divide in perceptions of the government's response. However, it's too early to say if they will significantly impact voter opinion or the election outcome.
Do campaign events actually influence voters?
Research suggests that campaign events have little impact on voter behavior. They may generate media attention and fundraising, but they don't seem to move votes.
Show Notes
With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community.
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Table of contents
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