What's Your Assumption? - December 31, 2025 - What's Your Assumption: Ten Trades to Close Out 2025
Update: 2025-12-31
Description
Hosts Liz and Jenny conducted the final What's Your Assumption session of 2025, achieving perfect 10-for-10 execution through creative strategy adaptations. The Apple crab trade from Kev in LA structured March 275 long call, two February 295 short calls, and one February 310 long call for calendarized ratio exposure. The Silver reverse Jade lizard from Trevor in Sioux Falls capitalized on stalled momentum and fantastic premium at highest IVR. Mosaic 25 puts at $1.90 from Marcus in Wilmington played into wheel strategy potential with 3.64% dividend. The Oracle "big lizard" evolved from viewer Sam's "synthetic jade lizard" request, with hosts interpreting this as buying 160 puts to define risk on 195-200/210 call spread structure for $8.85 risk versus original $4,000 exposure. Gold 397-399 February put spread at $1 flipped from viewer Russ's leap call spread preference, with Liz advocating short-term diagonals over expensive year-out positions. The IWM and Regetti butterflies honored Fabio from Italy's "January effect" thesis on small/mid-caps, while Costco 845-850 put spread and Circle March-February poor man's covered call washing extrinsic value rounded out successful session.
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