What's Your Assumption? - November 26, 2025 - What's Your Assumption: Navigating Wide Markets and Low IV Post-Sell-Off
Update: 2025-11-26
Description
Hosts Tony and Chris conducted a selective What's Your Assumption session executing only two trades out of ten submissions due to challenging market conditions including low implied volatility and wide bid-ask spreads. Both hosts entered AMD positions with Chris doing 185-195 put spread at 62% probability of profit and Tony executing inverse 195-185 put spread, with Chris providing technical analysis identifying potential gap fill to October 3rd close at $164.67 or double bottom formation around $194. Multiple passes included UNH complex structure (280 put with 360-370 call ratio deemed confusing), iBit covered calls (waiting for resistance test at $56 level), Palantir strangle (12.5 IV rank too low despite viewer Roberto's suggestion), Roblox iron condor (30-50 cent wide markets deemed untradeable), MU iron condor (dollar-wide markets on 40-delta options), and Coinbase call ratio (preferring direct crypto exposure over corporate stocks). The session featured Chris's dramatic Fort Collins stories about saving Dominique Collins from car accident using tourniquet skills learned from "American Legion" game, plus Tony's Costco membership restriction due to wife's superstition about prior relationships ending after getting memberships.
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