What's Your Assumption? - October 22, 2025 - What's Your Assumption: Six Trades Amid Challenging Market Liquidity
Update: 2025-10-22
Description
Hosts Nick and Tony navigated a difficult What's Your Assumption session where liquidity issues dominated, forcing passes on 4 of 10 viewer suggestions due to excessively wide markets. The executed trades included a UPS November-December 80/82 put diagonal for $4.50 (stock at five-year lows ahead of October 28th earnings), VST November 165 puts at $5 (stock down from 220 to 185 on six-day slide), and an SLV 43-40 1x3 put ratio spread at 24-cent credit capitalizing on 69 IV rank after Nick had closed a prior 42-47 strangle yesterday. The session featured extensive discussion about market quality, with CME showing $2.65 bid/$5.10 ask spreads deemed "untradeable" and GH (despite viewer Ron's pre-IPO success) having $4-wide markets. They advised viewer Joe against his zero-day SPX scalping strategy involving flipping between put and call spreads, calling it "eat like a bird, poop like an elephant" and suggesting micro E-mini futures instead. The Intel diagonal trade was postponed until after tomorrow's earnings, with Nick emphasizing the importance of longer duration (November 21st vs November 7th) to avoid getting "vaporized" by non-moves when volatility contracts.
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