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What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate

What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate

Update: 2024-06-241
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The 538 Politics Podcast delves into the upcoming presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump, exploring its significance in the context of historical precedents and the current political landscape. The episode examines whether presidential debates generally influence voter opinions, considering research suggesting limited impact, particularly in a polarized environment. The podcast also analyzes two recent polls, one suggesting a large universe of persuadable voters in key battleground states and another showing Trump with a significant lead in Iowa. The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming primary races in New York and Colorado, highlighting the high-profile contests and their potential implications.

Outlines

00:00:00
A Water Snake Encounter

This Chapter begins with a personal anecdote about a surprising encounter with a water snake while swimming in a stream. The speaker describes the unexpected event and the reactions of those present, highlighting the unusual nature of the experience.

00:00:39
The 538 Politics Podcast: Debate Week

This Chapter introduces the 538 Politics Podcast and its focus on "Debate Week." The episode features a discussion about the upcoming presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump, highlighting its significance as the earliest presidential debate ever.

00:15:26
Good or Bad Use of Polling: Part 1

This Chapter delves into the first example of good or bad use of polling, analyzing a poll of registered voters in six key battleground states. The poll focuses on "deciders," voters whose behavior is not predictable, and concludes that 61% of voters in those states fall into this category. The discussion explores the methodology and representativeness of the poll, with some quibbles about the definition of "deciders" and the inclusion of voters who lean toward a candidate.

00:25:47
Good or Bad Use of Polling: Part 2

This Chapter examines the second example of good or bad use of polling, focusing on a poll showing Trump with an 18-point lead over Biden in Iowa. The discussion explores the potential implications of this poll for Biden's support in other Midwestern states, considering the history of polling in Iowa and the potential for late shifts in the race. The episode highlights the importance of considering multiple polls and the inherent uncertainty in polling.

00:36:16
Primary Races to Watch

This Chapter previews upcoming primary races in New York and Colorado, highlighting the high-profile contests and their potential implications. The discussion focuses on the Democratic primary in New York between Representative Jamal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and the Republican primary in Colorado where Lauren Bobert is seeking re-election in a new district.

Keywords

Presidential Debate


A formal meeting between candidates for the office of President of the United States, typically held during a general election campaign. Debates provide a platform for candidates to present their policies, engage in discussions, and respond to questions from moderators and the public. The first presidential debate in US history was held in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Debates are often seen as a crucial event in the election cycle, influencing voter perceptions and potentially shifting the race.

Voter Perception


The way in which voters view and understand political candidates, parties, and issues. Voter perceptions are shaped by a variety of factors, including media coverage, campaign messaging, personal experiences, and social interactions. They play a significant role in determining voting behavior and election outcomes. Understanding voter perceptions is crucial for political strategists, pollsters, and analysts.

Polling


The process of collecting data from a sample of individuals to estimate the opinions or behaviors of a larger population. Polling is widely used in politics, marketing, and social research. It involves asking questions to respondents, typically through surveys, phone calls, or online questionnaires. Polling results are often used to gauge public opinion, predict election outcomes, and inform decision-making. However, polling is not without its limitations, as it can be influenced by sampling bias, question wording, and respondent behavior.

Battleground States


States that are considered to be highly competitive in a presidential election, where the outcome of the election is likely to be decided. Battleground states are typically characterized by a close balance of support between the two major political parties. They are often the focus of intense campaigning and media attention, as they hold the key to winning the Electoral College and the presidency. Examples of battleground states include Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Iowa


A state located in the Midwestern region of the United States. Iowa is known for its agricultural industry, particularly corn and soybean production. It is also a significant player in the presidential election cycle, as it hosts the first-in-the-nation caucuses, which are a series of meetings where voters choose their preferred candidates for the Democratic and Republican nominations. Iowa's caucuses are often seen as a bellwether for the rest of the election cycle, providing early insights into the race.

Super PAC


A type of political action committee (PAC) that is not subject to the same contribution limits as traditional PACs. Super PACs can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, unions, and individuals. They are allowed to spend unlimited amounts of money on independent expenditures, which are political ads and other campaign activities that are not coordinated with a candidate's campaign. Super PACs have become increasingly influential in recent elections, as they allow wealthy donors to exert significant influence on the political process.

American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)


A powerful pro-Israel lobbying group based in the United States. AIPAC is known for its strong advocacy on behalf of Israel's interests in Congress and the executive branch. It has been a major force in shaping US foreign policy towards Israel, particularly in terms of military and economic aid. AIPAC's influence has been the subject of debate, with some arguing that it exerts undue influence on US policy, while others maintain that it plays a legitimate role in representing the interests of the American Jewish community.

Jamal Bowman


A Democratic member of the United States House of Representatives, representing New York's 16th congressional district. Bowman is a progressive Democrat who has been a vocal critic of the Israeli government and its policies towards Palestinians. He has also been a strong advocate for social justice issues, such as racial equality and economic justice. Bowman's views on Israel have made him a target of criticism from pro-Israel groups, including AIPAC.

Lauren Bobert


A Republican member of the United States House of Representatives, representing Colorado's 3rd congressional district. Bobert is a conservative Republican who is known for her outspoken views on a range of issues, including gun rights, immigration, and abortion. She has been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump and has been critical of the Biden administration. Bobert's views have made her a controversial figure, but she has also become a popular figure among conservative voters.

Turnout


The percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots in an election. Turnout is a key factor in determining election outcomes, as it can influence the balance of power between different groups of voters. Turnout rates vary significantly across different elections, demographics, and geographic locations. Factors that can influence turnout include voter registration laws, campaign mobilization efforts, and the perceived importance of the election.

Q&A

  • Do presidential debates generally influence voter opinions, and if so, to what extent?

    Research suggests that presidential debates have a limited impact on voter opinions, particularly in a polarized environment. While some studies have shown a slight increase in support for challengers after the first debate, the overall effect is often minimal. The podcast suggests that debates may have a more significant impact on voter awareness and engagement, particularly in the early stages of the election cycle.

  • What are the key factors that could make the upcoming presidential debate between Biden and Trump more impactful than previous debates?

    The podcast highlights several factors that could make this debate more significant, including its early timing, the absence of the Presidential Commission on Debates, the muted microphones, and the unique age of both candidates. These factors could create a more unpredictable and potentially more impactful event.

  • How does the podcast assess the "good or bad" use of polling in the two examples discussed?

    The podcast analyzes two recent polls, one suggesting a large universe of persuadable voters in key battleground states and another showing Trump with a significant lead in Iowa. The first poll is deemed a "good" use of polling due to its comprehensive methodology and representativeness, while the second poll is considered a "bad" use of polling due to its early timing and the potential for late shifts in the race. The podcast emphasizes the importance of considering multiple polls and the inherent uncertainty in polling.

  • What are the key primary races to watch in New York and Colorado, and what are the potential implications of these contests?

    The podcast highlights the Democratic primary in New York between Representative Jamal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and the Republican primary in Colorado where Lauren Bobert is seeking re-election in a new district. The discussion focuses on the high-profile nature of these contests and their potential implications for the broader political landscape.

Show Notes

This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate

What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate

ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke