Why Isn’t Harris Doing Better?
Digest
This episode delves into the dynamics of the upcoming presidential election, focusing on Kamala Harris's performance and the factors influencing the race. The hosts discuss the reasons behind Harris's lack of a polling bounce after the Democratic Convention, including her challenges in reaching undecided voters and those concerned about the economy. They explore the importance of the economy in the election, noting that Republicans are ahead on economic issues, but Harris is doing better than Biden in terms of economic trust. The episode also examines the accuracy of polls and the challenges in predicting voter intention, acknowledging the polling errors in recent elections. The hosts debate the significance of policy proposals, analyzing Trump's and Harris's proposals on taxes and small businesses. They explore the reasons behind the persistent narrow division in American politics, discussing the role of party preference and the difficulty of finding candidates who appeal to a broad range of voters. The episode also examines Trump's shifting stance on abortion and its potential impact on voters, particularly suburban women. The hosts discuss the upcoming presidential debate and its potential impact on the race, acknowledging the significant impact of the last debate. They also discuss the potential impact of the Fed's decision on interest rates on the election. The episode then shifts to a discussion of foreign interference in American affairs, including Russian attempts to meddle in the election and Chinese efforts to influence American politics. The hosts debate whether these actions are outrageous or simply part of global competition for influence. They discuss the role of technology in amplifying division and misinformation, acknowledging the challenges of combating foreign propaganda in the age of social media. The episode concludes with cocktail chatter, discussing the increasing popularity of dining alone, a new study on how personality traits and life goals change from college to midlife, and an anecdote about LBJ's decision to grow his hair long in protest against Nixon.
Outlines
The Election Landscape: Harris's Performance and Key Factors
This chapter introduces the episode's focus on the upcoming presidential election, particularly Kamala Harris's performance and the factors influencing the race. It discusses the reasons behind Harris's lack of a polling bounce after the Democratic Convention, including her challenges in reaching undecided voters and those concerned about the economy.
The Economy and Voter Trust: A Crucial Factor in the Election
This chapter explores the importance of the economy in the election, noting that Republicans are ahead on economic issues, but Harris is doing better than Biden in terms of economic trust. It also examines the accuracy of polls and the challenges in predicting voter intention, acknowledging the polling errors in recent elections.
Policy Proposals and Their Impact on Voters
This chapter delves into the significance of policy proposals in the election, analyzing Trump's and Harris's proposals on taxes and small businesses. It questions whether these proposals resonate with undecided voters.
The Persistent Narrow Division in American Politics
This chapter explores the reasons behind the persistent narrow division in American politics, discussing the role of party preference and the difficulty of finding candidates who appeal to a broad range of voters.
Trump's Shifting Stance on Abortion: A Strategic Move?
This chapter examines Trump's shifting stance on abortion and its potential impact on voters, particularly suburban women. It questions whether Trump's recent moves on abortion will be effective, particularly with suburban women who may be turned off by his other policies and behavior.
The Upcoming Presidential Debate: A Potential Turning Point
This chapter discusses the upcoming presidential debate and its potential impact on the race, acknowledging the significant impact of the last debate. It also discusses the opportunity for Harris to prove herself on stage with Trump.
The Fed's Decision on Rates: Economic Impact on the Election
This chapter explores the potential impact of the Fed's decision on interest rates on the election. It argues that the Fed's actions could influence voter perceptions of the economy, potentially shifting the race in one direction or another.
Foreign Interference in American Affairs: A Growing Concern
This chapter shifts to a discussion of foreign interference in American affairs, including Russian attempts to meddle in the election and Chinese efforts to influence American politics. It debates whether these actions are outrageous or simply part of global competition for influence.
The Role of Technology in Amplifying Division and Misinformation
This chapter discusses the role of technology in amplifying division and misinformation, acknowledging the challenges of combating foreign propaganda in the age of social media.
Keywords
Polling Bounce
A significant increase in a candidate's poll numbers following a specific event, such as a convention or debate. This is often seen as a measure of the candidate's success in mobilizing their base or appealing to undecided voters.
Gender Gap
The difference in voting patterns between men and women. In the current election, Kamala Harris is doing well with women, particularly suburban women, contributing to a widening gender gap.
Elite Opinion
The views and opinions of a small, influential group of people, often those with high social status or wealth. Kamala Harris's policy proposals are seen by some as an attempt to appease elite opinion, particularly on issues like taxes and small businesses.
Vibe vs. Policy
The debate over whether voters are more influenced by their feelings about a candidate (vibes) or by their policy positions. This is a recurring theme in the election, with some arguing that Harris's strong vibes are outweighing concerns about her policy details.
Tribalism
The tendency for people to identify strongly with their group, often to the exclusion of others. This is seen as a significant factor in the persistent narrow division in American politics, where party preference often trumps other considerations.
Litmus Test
A key issue or belief that is used to determine whether a candidate is acceptable to a particular group or party. This can limit the range of candidates who can successfully run for office, as they must conform to the litmus tests of their respective parties.
Ham-Handed
Clumsy or awkward, often in a way that is obvious or insensitive. This is used to describe Trump's attempts to moderate his stance on abortion, which are seen as insincere and unlikely to sway undecided voters.
Cataclysmic Thunder Clap
A sudden, dramatic event that has a significant impact. This is used to describe the last presidential debate, which was seen as a turning point in the race and challenged the notion that debates don't matter.
Force Multiplier
A factor that amplifies the impact of something else. Technology is seen as a force multiplier for division and misinformation, as it allows for the rapid and widespread dissemination of false or misleading information.
Q&A
Why didn't Kamala Harris experience a polling bounce after the Democratic Convention?
Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party, particularly among Black and Latino voters, but faces challenges in reaching undecided voters and those concerned about the economy.
How does the economy play a role in the election?
Republicans are ahead on economic issues, which may be contributing to Harris's struggles. However, Harris is doing better than Biden in terms of economic trust, suggesting that she is appealing to voters who are concerned about the economy.
How accurate are polls, and what factors complicate accurate polling?
Polls have been inaccurate in recent elections, particularly in state polls. Factors that complicate accurate polling include social pressure, differential response rates, and the difficulty in predicting voter intention.
Do policy proposals matter in the election?
The hosts debate the significance of policy proposals, analyzing Trump's and Harris's proposals on taxes and small businesses. They question whether these proposals resonate with undecided voters.
Why is the country so narrowly divided?
Party preference plays a significant role, and it is difficult to find candidates who appeal to a broad range of voters. The challenges of expanding a party's base also contribute to the narrow division.
Will Trump's shifting stance on abortion sway undecided voters?
The hosts question whether Trump's recent moves on abortion will be effective, particularly with suburban women who may be turned off by his other policies and behavior.
How could the upcoming presidential debate impact the race?
The hosts acknowledge the significant impact of the last debate and speculate on whether this one will be equally consequential. They also discuss the opportunity for Harris to prove herself on stage with Trump.
How could the Fed's decision on interest rates influence the election?
The Fed's actions could influence voter perceptions of the economy, potentially shifting the race in one direction or another.
How significant is foreign interference in American affairs?
The hosts debate whether these actions are outrageous or simply part of global competition for influence. They discuss the challenges of combating foreign propaganda in the age of social media and the difficulty of distinguishing between genuine dissent and foreign influence.
Show Notes
This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the state of the presidential race; the possibility of a hostages-for-Gaza-ceasefire deal with Ruth Margalit of The New Yorker; and foreign interference in U.S. politics.
In the latest Gabfest Reads, Emily talks with Joshua Leifer about his book, Tablets Shattered.
Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)
Podcast production by Cheyna Roth
Research by Julie Huygen
Public.com+Public Investing: All investing involves risk. Brokerage services for US listed securities, options and bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing, member FINRA & SIPC. Not investment advice. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1828849), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. . See public.com/#disclosures-main for more information.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Table of contents
United States
