Snowfall in Colorado has been lackluster to start the ski season, but for backcountry enthusiasts the lack of early-season snow has the potential to lead to safer avalanche conditions down the road.

When snow falls in October or early November, it often forms a weak layer in the snowpack that can become dangerous when it gets buried later in the season, Colorado Avalanche Information Center Director Ethan Greene said Monday. So far this season, there hasn’t been enough snow to create that potential weak layer.

“Of course, there’s a lot of other perspectives around snow in the mountains,” Greene said, “but the best thing from an avalanche perspective is we want it to not snow and then, when it starts snowing, to snow continuously enough to develop a thick and strong snowpack.”

The CAIC kicked off its daily avalanche forecasts at the start of November, but to date there has been little to no risk of avalanches due to the lack of snow. The avalanche forecasts, which rate avalanche danger on a scale from low to extreme, are posted to Colorado.gov/avalanche around 4:30 p.m. each afternoon for the following day.

While a handful of ski resorts in Colorado are already open thanks to snowmaking, the state’s snowpack was just 21% of median on Tuesday, and only small amounts of snow remain in the backcountry.

Colorado often receives its first significant snowstorms in October or early November, but the storms are often followed by extended dry periods, Greene said. That can lead to what he described as a “problematic” snowpack.

“Snowfall in October never really bodes well for us,” Greene said. “It’s pretty common. We have it almost every year, but we all kind of cringe a little bit. We’re excited to see the snow, but if it comes in October, we’re like ‘Oh, this may not really be that great for us.'”

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When a foot or so of early-season snow falls on the ground, followed by a week or more of dry weather, Greene said that typically results in the snow “faceting” — or forming weak snow crystals.  

Throughout the winter, new snow then builds up on that weak layer. When there is too much pressure — such as from a skier or snowboarder putting weight on the snow — that weak layer can break deep in the snowpack, resulting in dangerous avalanches.

“Eventually later on in the year, it will get enough weight on it, a big enough loading event, that it’ll trigger avalanches and it will trigger down into what we call the basal layer, that layer of snow that formed in October,” Greene said. “So that is what we’re — at least right now — avoiding.”

This October was the driest Colorado has experienced since the 2016-17 season, according to the CAIC. That winter, however, conditions changed quickly in mid-November, and the snowpack remained above average for most of the season. 

Backcountry experts are hoping for a similar transition to steady snowfall this season.

“What we really want to see is a good weather pattern change where we get a bunch of small-to-medium snow events,” Greene said. “We just want it to snow every couple days, 6-10 inches, every few days for a couple weeks. That’s all we’re asking.”

Looking at the forecast ahead, it’s possible that those weather patterns could become a reality.

OpenSnow Founding Meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote in a blog post that after warm, dry weather this week, next week is expected to be colder with several chances for snowstorms before the end of the month.

“The exact timing and amount of snow is still uncertain,” Gratz said, “but it appears that most mountains (in Colorado) will see multiple chances for snow between now and Thanksgiving.”

With little snow so far, Greene encouraged those planning to get out into the backcountry this season to check that their avalanche transceiver, probe and shovel are working and to freshen up on their avalanche knowledge. He noted that CAIC this year launched a free online course to introduce basic avalanche safety concepts to winter travelers.

While it is still possible that Colorado could see a weak layer form if there is a significant amount of snowfall followed by a dry period, Greene said that the dry start to the season should keep backcountry enthusiasts hopeful, at least for now.

“There’s really not enough snow to go play right now, but from an avalanche perspective, thinking about what’s going to happen in January, February and March, this could be a good thing,” he said. “It’s too early to really know, but it is a silver lining for snow lovers who don’t have snow in November.”