Montel Weekly

The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is intended to address the issue of carbon leakage - preventing companies moving to jurisdictions with less stringent emissions rules - and to keep industrial sectors in the EU competitive by charging a carbon levy at its borders. But the inclusion of electricity could trigger several unintended consequences. Listen to a discussion on how the law could significantly affect electricity flows between non-EU and EU countries and impact investment in renewable energy. Could the border tax actually hinder moves to decarbonise Europe?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Phil Hewitt, Director Montel Analytics; Jean-Paul Harreman, Director Montel Analytics.

After record low nuclear output in 2022, France has again become a powerhouse of atomic generation. So much so, that it is again Europe’s largest electricity exporter. Wholesale market prices in the country have tumbled amid ample supply, weak demand and high renewables, primarily solar, generation. Listen to a discussion on the outlook ahead of the summer, and the potential for surprises amid probes into possible corrosion at some reactors.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel News; Tasmin Chowdhary, Market Analyst, Volue. 

Europe may have weathered the worst of the storms of the covid pandemic and the energy crisis, but the continent’s gas market remains fragile. In this episode, we talk to the CEO of gas transit operator Snam and one of Italy’s most respected energy experts about the role gas will play for the country as it looks to wean itself off Russian gas. Italy looks set to become more dependent on the vagaries of global markets as it commits to an LNG future. And what is the outlook for gas demand among Italy’s industry?   Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Stefano Venier, CEO of Snam, Massimo Nicolazzi, University of Turin.

The pan-EU balancing mechanism Picasso has caused price turbulence after its introduction in some markets, notably Italy. The country has since exited the platform and other countries have delayed implementation to the mandatory system. Listen to a discussion on the problems experienced by Italy and proposals put forward to change the platform and to increase data transparency.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Simon Remppis, Engineer at TransnetBW; Alina Trabattoni, Italy Correspondent, Montel News. 

EU regulatory body Acer has proposed several changes to the framework of forward markets and cross-border trading, aimed at boosting power market liquidity. Listen to a discussion on virtual hubs, financial transmission rights or “spread futures” and why the Nordic model may not be the best example to follow. And, would dividing the German power zone attract more investment into green energy and increase liquidity?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Lion Hirth, Professor at Hertie School and Director at Neon Energy. 

Norway installed the least amount of renewables in the Nordic region last year. Ahead of the country’s first ever offshore wind auction, we talk to former energy minister Åslaug Haga about the outlook for new green energy in terms of meeting growing demand. Listen to a discussion on the ways in which country should speed up capacity build and why it is important to avoid the “ketchup effect”.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Åslaug Haga, Director, Renewables Norway.

European power purchase agreements (PPAs) look set for another bumper year with potential volume of 20 GW. However, there is some market hesitancy amid economic headwinds and flagging wholesale electricity prices. There is also a good chance for Germany to knock Spain off the top spot for PPA growth. Listen in!Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Luca Pedretti, Pexapark 

Over the past decade, Germany has experienced serious energy shocks – many of which were of its own making. For instance, the over-reliance on Russian gas and exiting coal and nuclear power at the same time. However, it has also provided solutions on a remarkable scale. Listen to a discussion  - recorded live at the E-World trade fair in Germany - on how the country dealt with its energy crisis, and the positive progress made since 2022. But how can it speed up investments into the grid as well as into renewables?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool, a Montel Group company;Hanns Koenig, Managing Director, Central Europe, Aurora Energy Research; Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

European Guarantee of Origin prices have slumped to near 15-month lows amid oversupply and faltering auctions. Listen to a discussion on the measures policy makers need to adopt to boost both transparency and liquidity in this opaque market. Will prices ever reach the highs of 2022 again?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Daniel Arnesson, Manager, Renewable Power Analysis

The prospect of Trump returning to the White House could shake up the global gas market already on edge from rising tensions in the Middle East. Listen to a discussion about how Trump could reverse President Biden’s pause to LNG projects. Also, the pod highlights why Chinese and German gas demand is returning close to pre-pandemic levels and what this means for imports to Europe as it continues to shun Russian supply.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director, Svelland Capital. 

Are oil and gas markets too complacent about the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for around one third of global seaborne oil trade? Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial thinks so. In this week's pod, he explains how an escalation of tensions beyond the Hamas-Irael war could see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and propel oil and LNG prices to USD 200/bbl and USD 100/MMbtu respectively – dwarfing the peaks during the 2022 energy crisis.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Saul Kavonic, Senior Research Analyst, MST Financial. 

For the first time in 17 years, Germany became a net electricity importer in 2023, largely due to expensive fossil fuels which meant power from its neighbours was cheaper than that domestically generated. Carbon emissions in the country also plummeted but is the drop permanent as the country looks to transform its power system? Listen to a discussion on the choices facing Germany and the pros and cons of splitting its single power market zone.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Fabian Huneke, Project Lead Energy Transition, Agora Energiewend

Europe’s net-zero targets for 2050 are ambitious, but the roll-out of renewable energy will not be successful without a significant boost to flexibility in power markets. Listen to a discussion on the prospects for batteries, both giga and household, in the energy transition and where the hotspots are in Europe. Could new technology such as sodium-ion be a game changer for energy storage?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sam Ebohon, Director Flexibility, Baringa Partners

Cross-border electricity cables are controversial. For some they provide supply security while others believe they increase prices in markets used to low energy costs. Listen to a discussion on the impact the power links had amid a period of extremely cold weather in the Nordic region. In addition, what is the outlook for wholesale prices in the coming weeks and months – could Finland see a return of EUR 800/MWh?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GEO; Odd Gunnar Jakobsen, Analyst, Volt Power Analytics.

Germany faces a freeze on many counts over the coming weeks. Firstly, a cold snap is likely to send power prices spiralling. In addition, a budget freeze could hamper the country’s plans to meet its decarbonisation targets after a court ruled the EUR 60bn earmarked for its green transition was illegal. How will Europe’s largest energy consumer afford to keep the lights on?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

End of year round-up, outlookIn the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.Host: Richard SverrissonGuests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent FranceGuests (Part 2) : Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway; Olav Vilnes, Editor Norway; Laurence Walker, Deputy Editor-in-Chief; Andres Cala, LNG Correspondent

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.Host: Richard SverrissonGuests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Gas storage is ample, the weather has remained largely mild and French nuclear availability has returned to pre-Covid levels. However, given the escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalemate in Ukraine, several risks remain ahead of the winter season. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for prices amid a very jittery market. Also, will the EU impose sanctions on Russian LNG?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia;               Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

A bidding error in the Nordic spot power market could be the costliest fat finger event ever in European energy markets – both in terms of financial losses but also the reputational damage for the electricity system and the companies involved. Listen to a discussion on the events that led to EUR -500/MWh power prices and why some Finns treated it as Black Friday. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Maarit Uusitalo, Manager, Market Solutions, Fingrid ;Riku Merikoski, Senior Power Analyst, Axpo; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway. 

The UK is reviewing a shift in how it prices electricity from a single wholesale market, with two locational alternatives under consideration: nodal or zonal. This week’s pod addresses the pros and cons of locational prices and whether they will help or hinder the UK’s quest for net-zero emissions.   Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Stephen Woodhouse,  Director Afry Management Consulting and Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel EnAppSys.