The Contrarian Investor Podcast

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack. Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length. Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised.  The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open. Content Highlights Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51). More on the Guest Website: HXResearch.net; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack. Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows. Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear! Content Highlights Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40). More on the Guest Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor; Order the book.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack. Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment. Content Highlights What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; Order the book on Amazon.com; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast. Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio. Content Highlights The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; YouTube; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024. This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024. Content Highlights Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.   Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin: Website: Centerfin.co; Twitter: @WallStHobbes; LinkedIn page; Facebook: CenterfinHQ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast. Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society.  Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37); To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26); Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37); Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48) More on the Guest Website: DailyDirtNap.com; Twitter: @DailyDirtNap; Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor; Pre-order his book on Amazon. Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast. Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks. Content Highlights The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19); Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25); There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03); South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14); A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22); Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13); Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter; Website: EMQQGlobal.com.

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast. Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets. Content Highlights Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33); Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38); The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37); Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05); How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25); Background on the guest (29:57); What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09). For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds. Not investment advice. Content Highlights Views on the bond market (1:31); The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41); Views on stocks (11:30); Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14); Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21); How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02), To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here. Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street. Content Highlights The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27); Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00); The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14); The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37); His views on cryptos (24:13); Background on the guest (30:01); Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46); What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17). For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack. Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32); Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44); The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53); The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58); The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48); Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45); New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36); Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42); One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35). For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. Not investment advice.

This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast.  Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha. Content Highlights Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11); Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45); How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55); What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06); Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33); Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45); Background on the guest (29:30); More About the Guest Website: DiamondStandard.co; Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney; LinkedIn: DiamondStandard; Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co; FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.

This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here. Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged... (Not investment advice). Content Highlights What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37) The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55); What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40); Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04); More About the Guest Website: Covey.io; Twitter: @CoveyInvest; LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast. Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns. Content Highlights An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38); The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12); Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20); When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17); The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33); Background on the guest (26:06); China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42). More on the Aperture Investors Website: ApertureInvestors.com; Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs; LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors; Instagram: @ApertureInvestors.

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack. Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets... Content Highlights Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48) Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52); Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08); How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17); When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16); Background on the guest (24:10); Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37); Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08); Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19). More on the Guest Website: PeterAtwater.com; Twitter: @Peter_Atwater; Ways to order the book here. Not investment advice.

Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads. Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities... Content Highlights A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51); The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45); These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34); Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23); Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50); Background on the guest (22:27); Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06); What about cryptos? (33:48); There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48). More Information on the Guest Website: ErbeWealth.com; LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack. Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today’s markets. Content Highlights What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06); What makes a trend? (5:23); What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52); Current opportunities (9:11): Fixed-income (10:09); Agricultural commodities (10:58); Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15); Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11); Background on the guest (21:24); His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20); ...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55). For More Information: Website: AspectCapital.com; LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital. Not investment advice.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack. Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing. Content Highlights Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21); AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11); Background on the guest (15:40); The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46); The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20); Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00); AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18); Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37). More Information on the Guest Website: x3cmllc.com