Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

The poll was conducted March 20-21, 2024, among 2,111 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.   President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row. Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms.  Other key findings include:  VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden's State of the Union address.54% of voters, including 70% of non-watchers, think Biden did not address the issues that they and their families are concerned about in the speech.53% believe Biden delivered the speech effectively.Trump is leading Biden by 2 points in the general head-to-head, down from 6 points last month. 20% of Independents say they are unsure.VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN73% of voters believe it is appropriate to refer to those who enter the U.S. without permission as "illegal immigrants"; 68% believe it is appropriate to refer to them as "undocumented immigrants."63% of voters have heard of the story of murdered Georgia nursing student Laken Riley and 70% believe the case shows that the U.S. needs stricter immigration policies.TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY64% of voters believe the risks posed by TikTok to Americans' personal security and the country's national security outweigh the benefits of using TikTok for American brands and content creators (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 85%).65% of voters support the bill that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if ByteDance does not sell it to a U.S. government-approved buyer (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 84%).Voters are most concerned about potential election interference from Russia (74%), China (73%), Iran (60%), Hamas (56%) and tech companies (51%).ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHUIsrael continues to receive high support, 79%, against Hamas.52% of voters say it was inappropriate for Senator Chuck Schumer to call for new elections in Israel to remove Benjamin Netanyahu; but 54% believe this criticism of Israel was fair.Netanyahu has a higher net favorable rating in the U.S. (+2 points) than Schumer (-10 points).

Here are the findings of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, which was released together with The Hill today. The poll was conducted February 21-22, 2024, among 2,022 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.  President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row.Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. Other key findings include: IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTERVoters say Biden’s biggest failure was creating an open borders policy and a historic flood of immigrants. (Voters say Biden’s biggest accomplishment was lowering the cost of prescription drugs.)62% of voters support impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, including 48% of Democrats.55% of voters supported Trump’s calls to stop the Senate’s compromise immigration bill, which would have allowed 5000 migrants to enter per day until new measures kicked in.INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS71% of voters think price increases and inflation have proven to be sticky and are here to stay – including 58% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.45% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse – down from 64% in summer 2022.42% say inflation is the most important issue to them personally, up 4 points from January.VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN’S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES59% of voters say age and memory lapses are inadequate justification for Special Counsel Robert Hur not pursuing criminal charges in the classified documents case.76% of voters, including 64% of Democrats, want the transcript of Hur’s interview with Biden to be released publicly.71% of voters, including 50% of Democrats, would consider it an impeachable offense if it were true that Biden worked with his son and brother to help bring in multimillion-dollar fees from China, Russia and Ukraine while he was vice president.TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGESTrump beats Biden by 6 points in the head-to-head matchup.57% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president.54% think the New York judge’s recent ruling that Trump defrauded state banks was fair.ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG82% of voters support Israel over Hamas (with 72% support among 18-24-year-olds, their highest percentage to date).63% of voters support Israel continuing its ground invasion into Southern Gaza to root out the final elements of Hamas.

Mark Penn and Bob Cusack breakdown the results from the January 2024 Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. This month's word: Immigration.

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.President Joe Biden's approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here."There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates."AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE65% of voters think the U.S. should be supporting Israel in its war against Hamas; 65% separately think the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.54% of voters support giving $14 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support giving an additional $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Republicans are most likely to support the aid to Israel and Democrats most support aid to Ukraine.65% of voters, including 51% of Democrats, believe the Republicans should hold up aid to both Israel and Ukraineto get additional border security measures.VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATIONBiden's approval rating on immigration dropped 8 points to 38% in the last month.57% of voters believe Trump had better immigration policies than Biden.Only 8% of voters knew that over 3 million people crossed the border illegally in the past year; the majority believed the number was under 500,000.VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP55% of voters say they are worse off personally during Biden's presidency and 61% say they were better off personally during Trump's presidency.44% say the economy is strong today, up 6 points in the past six months.Inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally (chosen by 40%).TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN56% of voters believe Trump will act like a dictator if reelected, but 59% believe Democrats are trying to unfairly scare voters by labeling Trump as a dictator.72% believe a vote for Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will not likely serve a full second term.Trump leads the head-to-head matchup against Biden by 5 points and leads by 7 points when including third-party candidates.VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION81% of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden should appear for a deposition by Congress if asked to explain his business dealings.GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES62% of voters feel university presidents did not go far enough to condemn antisemitism on their campuses in their Congressional testimony (ages 18-24: 67% feel the presidents did go far enough).74% believe students who call for the genocide of Jews should face actions for violating university rules (ages 18-24: 47%).76% believe Jewish students on campus are facing harassment (ages 18-24: 68%).67% of 18-24-year-olds believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated as such (in contrast, 73% of all voters believe this is a false ideology).The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

President Joe Biden's approval rating rises slightly to 45% with slight upticks in positive economic sentiment. Israel and Biden's policy on the war continue to receive strong support as 80% of voters side with Israel over Hamas and 58% approve of Biden's policies. The poll also covers public opinion on abortion, crime and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here."It is easy to lose sight of how much support there really is among American voters for Israel and for President Biden staying strongly pro-Israel – although misinformation on Israel and Hamas remains prevalent, especially among younger people," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Biden's Israelpolicy could help him pick up swing voters, while the Democrats continue to win elections on abortion since they come across to swing voters as the party of personal freedom on this issue."ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TICKS UP SLIGHTLY42% of voters think the U.S. economy is strong today, the highest since February 2023.30% say their personal financial situation is improving, up 6 points since July.47% are optimistic about their life in the next year, up 4 points since last month.ISRAEL CONTINUES TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT80% of voters support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24: 55%; ages 65+: 95%).61% of voters support Israel continuing until Hamas is defeated and the hostages are released (ages 18-24: 51%; ages 65+: 81%).78% of voters support Israel calling for 4-hour partial ceasefires each day, but 51% did not know about these ceasefires (ages 18-24: 59% support, 64% did not know).VOTERS CONTINUE TO APPROVE OF BIDEN'S ISRAEL POLICY66% of voters think Biden should support Israel rather than pull back (ages 18-24: 39%; ages 65+: 84%).65% of voters favor the $14 billion aid package to Israel (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 75%).63% of voters think Biden is doing enough to protect Palestinian civilians (ages 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 64%).MISINFORMATION ON HAMAS AND ISRAEL'S LEVELS OF FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE REMAINS SIZABLE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS81% of voters think Hamas uses civilians as human shields (ages 18-24: 68%; ages 65+: 95%).78% of voters believe Hamas is an authoritarian ruler (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 96%).69% of voters believe Israel a democracy (ages 18-24: 56%; ages 65+: 84%).51% of 18-24-year-old voters think Israel allows gay people to live together openly; 45% think Hamas allows the same.6-WEEK ABORTION BAN IS NOT POPULAR59% of voters say women should have the sole right to decide whether to have an abortion for any reason up to 6 weeks of pregnancy.When asked about the prospect of federal abortion legislation, 39% of voters think Congress should pass a law guaranteeing access similar to Roe v. Wade; 35% want Congress not to pass any law; only 27% want a Congressional law restricting abortion to 6 weeks or less.AMERICANS WANT MORE LAW ENFORCEMENT AS CRIME CONCERN STAYS HIGH63% of voters think you need to have a gun today in case you're attacked by criminals – including 54% of Democrats.83% of voters across the political spectrum think shoplifting laws should be strictly, not more laxly, enforced.TRUMP STILL LEADS PRIMARY AND GENERAL MATCHUPS DESPITE LOOMING CONVICTION THREATSTrump continues to lead the GOP primary field with 67% support and the general election match-up against Biden by 6 points.Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump will be convicted or not; 89% of Trump primary supporters say they would vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime.But the Trump vote may be softer than people think: 63% of Trump primary supporters say they have at least some chance of ending up voting for someone else.The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 15-16, 2023, among 2,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: STRONG MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS SUPPORT ISRAEL AGAINST HAMAS AND U.S. POLICY ON ISRAEL48% OF 18–24-YEAR-OLDS SIDE MORE WITH HAMAS; WAR VIEWS DEFINED BY GENERATIONS, NOT PARTYBIDEN APPROVAL RISES ON ISRAEL RESPONSENEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.Israel receives overwhelming support from Americans: 84% of voters support Israel over Hamas and 88% believe Israel has a right to respond militarily against Hamas. President Joe Biden edges up to 44% approval as 58% approve of the job he is doing on Israel. Republicans in Congress have hurt themselves significantly in the breakdown over the Speaker of the House as Congressional and Republican ratings sink. Download key results here.“Americans strongly support Israel against Hamas’ terrorist attacks by 80 percent or more. However, there is a split not among the parties but among the generations as 95% of seniors support Israel while support drops to only 52% among the youngest voter group,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “President Biden’s vocal support of Israel is winning approval from both sides, while the Republicans’ chaos in the House is doing the opposite.”AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT ISRAELAND ITS RIGHT TO RESPOND TO HAMAS ATTACKS• 84% of voters side more with Israel than with Hamas (ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 95%).• 88% of voters think Israel has the responsibility to protect its citizens by retaliating against Hamas (ages 18-24: 65%; ages 65+: 97%).• 84% of voters believe Israel has the right to defend itself by launching air strikes in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens (ages 18-24: 62%; ages 65+: 93%).• 70% of voters think Israel should eliminate Hamas, not end its campaign against Hamas now (ages 18-24: 48%; ages 65+: 82%).• 63% of voters believe it was right for Israel to cut off power, water and food to Gaza until its hostages are returned (ages 18-24: 41%; ages 65+: 70%).• 61% of voters say there is no moral equivalency between Hamas’ murders and Israel’s actions (ages 18-24: 36% – the majority believe both sides have equally just causes; ages 65+: 80%). SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF YOUNG VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN FACTS, DENY ATROCITIES COMMITTED• 17% of voters think it is a false story that Hamas terrorists killed 1200 Israeli civilians by shooting, raping and beheading people (ages 18-24: 32%; ages 65+: 10%).• 46% of voters say that Israel, not Hamas, rules Gaza (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 32%).• 33% of voters think the explosion at a Gaza hospital explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike rather than a terrorist rocket that went off-course (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 13%).BIDEN GETS GOOD RATINGS ON ISRAEL POLICY AS VOTERS THINK U.S. HAS RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP• 58% of voters approve of Biden’s foreign policy on Israel(ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 61%).• 64% of voters say the U.S. has a responsibility to militarily support Israel while it is under attack by terrorist groups(ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 70%).• While Biden did not mention the U.S. hostages in his October 19 Oval Office address, 71% of voters think the U.S. has the responsibility to bring to safety the over a dozen Americans abducted by Hamas (ages 18-24: 42%; ages 65+: 81%).• 59% of voters say the U.S. should directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel (ages 18-24: 40%; ages 65+: 64%).REPUBLICAN VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF MCCARTHY OUSTER• 62% of GOP voters say the Republicans who ousted McCarthy are hurting the Republican Party.• 57% of GOP voters say that if House Republicans cannot elect another speaker before government funding runs out in 30 days, they should find a different candidate other than McCarthy.TRUMP LEADS THREE-WAY RACE WITH BIDEN AND RFK JR.• Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP primary race with 60% support.• Trump continues to lead Biden in a head-to-head contest, 46% to 41%.• Trump also leads in a three-way race against Biden and RFK Jr., 39% to 33% to 19%, respectively.The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 18-19, 2023, among 2,116 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. About The Harris Poll & HarrisXThe Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 42% after a new impeachment inquiry, which 53% of voters split along party lines support. The poll also covers the 2024 horse race and public opinion on issues such as illegal immigration and parental rights. Download key results here. “After a quiet summer, the electorate remains unhappy on the economy and a slew of other issues,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Since voters have hardened views on Biden and Trump, the primaries have not gotten competitive yet either.”INFLATION FRUSTRATIONS REMAINVoters continue to say inflation is the most important issue facing the country (33%), as well as the most important issue to them personally (39%). 64% say Bidenomics is not working.75% of voters, including over 70% from each party, think the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates enough. VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY53% of voters support the impeachment inquiry into Biden, with 51% of Independents against.57% say Biden helped Hunter get influence peddling contracts and 60% think Biden has made false or misleading statements about Hunter’s business dealings.The country is split 50-50 on whether Biden’s impeachment inquiry is politically motivated or raises legitimate legal questions; voters are split 50-50 on the same question regarding Donald Trump’s prosecutions.TRUMP CONSOLIDATES SUPPORT AND LEADS BIDEN IN HEAD-TO-HEADTrump increases his lead among Republican voters to 57%, while Ron DeSantis continues falling to a distant second with 10%.In head-to-head presidential matchups, Biden loses to Trump by 5, Nikki Haley by 4, and Tim Scott by 2; he defeats Mike Pence by 6, Ron DeSantis by 4, and Vivek Ramaswamy by 2. AMERICANS FIND AGREEMENT ON IMMIGRATION AND PARENTAL RIGHTS71% of voters, including 53% of Democrats, think illegal immigration to the U.S. is getting worse. 87% of voters, including over 80% of each party, agree parents have a right to know if their children want to transition their gender.There is still goodwill towards teachers: 60% of voters, including 59% of Independents, say teachers are mostly trying to help kids get a better education, not push an ideology onto them.The September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from September 12-14, 2023, among 2,103 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​ Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

Harris Poll Chairman / Stagwell CEO Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusackexplore findings of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted July 19-20 and released by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics.Download the full report - key results, crosstabs and key findings.The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard UniversityDritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack explore findings of the June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted June 14 and 15 among 2,090 registered voters.MOST AMERICANS UNHAPPYVoters remain politically split 50-50 but just about 100% are unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and their political leaders. Biden’s approval is frozen in place despite the debt ceiling deal and a recovering stock market; yet Trump’s numbers are also unshaken after an unprecedented federal indictment.BIDEN AND TRUMP STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS- President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 43% and Donald Trump continues to lead their 2024 matchup, by 6 points this month. The poll covers public opinion on the Trump federal indictment, electric vehicles and policy issues like parental rights.AMERICANS THINK THE CASE AGAINST TRUMP IS STRONG BUT WANT A PARDON- 58% of Americans think the case against Trump is strong, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans.- Voters are split 51-49, down party lines, on whether Trump’s indictment is reason to withdraw from the 2024 race.- If Trump is convicted, 53% of voters – driven by 80% of Republicans – support pardoning him in the interest of national unity.MORE VOTERS PREFER TO LIVE IN A STATE WITH A REPUBLICAN-LEANING SLATE OF POLICIES- 64% of voters say they would want to live in a state that cuts taxes, encourages public charter schools, does not allow gender surgery for minors, and restricts most abortions after six weeks.- By contrast 66% of voters – including a majority of all parties – say they would not want to live in a state that has increasing taxes, restricts legal gun ownership more strictly, allows abortion up to 9 months, allows minors to get gender surgery without parental permission, encourages undocumented immigrants, and allows felons to vote.TRUMP AND BIDEN STRENGTHEN THEIR 2024 POSITIONS- Even after the indictment, 59% of Republicans would choose Trump in a GOP primary and he would beat Biden in a general election 45-39 (one point closer than last month).- Biden has strengthened his position with 62% support among Democratic voters in a primary – but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is in second at 15% and his personal favorability rating is 21 points above water.AMERICANS OPPOSE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATES- Americans are split 50-50 on supporting the $7500 tax credit subsidy for an EV purchase.- 59% of voters oppose government regulations that would require at least half of all cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric.- Americans still like gas cars: 64% think they are better vehicles than EVs.- Voters are split on the net climate effect of EVs: Half of Americans, including most Republicans and Independents, think EVs produce just as much pollution through the car battery mining and production process.AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH SCHOOLS BUT WANT STRONGER PARENTAL RIGHTS- 74% of parents with school-aged children, including majorities of all parties, think schools are respecting their rights as parents.- 77% of voters oppose a law in their state that would allow minors to get gender-changing surgery and puberty blockers without parental permission, including 66% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.The June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. 

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack dissect and interpret findings of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted May 17-18, 2023, among 2,004 registered voters. ​ Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded.TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALLTrump now beats Biden in a 2024 general election by 7 points, 47-40.Trump stretched his lead in a GOP primary to 58% and Biden stretched his lead in a Democratic primary to 41%.VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATIONHalf of voters, evenly split across parties, have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe.But Americans are confused about the Durham report’s conclusion: half of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believed the report said the FBI’s Trump investigation was well-founded, even though it said the opposite.52% of voters believe the Durham report was a fair examination, although 57% of Democrats said it was fair and 54% of Republicans said it was biased.70% of Democrats still believe Trump worked in concert with Russia to win the presidency and 71% believe the Steele dossier was a true story.MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES71% of voters, split evenly across the parties, have heard of the repeal of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration regulation that allowed the U.S. government to send those who attempted to cross the southern border illegally to Mexico to wait for a court date.54% of voters – including 67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans – support the repeal of Title 42.53% of voters now think the Biden administration is just trying to enforce immigration laws more humanely, rather than creating an open border (which a majority of voters thought in December).But only 38% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, down 2 points from last month.VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS35% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think Biden has signaled willingness to curb spending in the next year.Voters continue to want Democrats to cave and negotiate on the debt ceiling to prevent a default: 57% say so, up 2 points from last month.As default looms, 70% of voters, up 6 points from last month, now think default would be a huge issue.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the  April Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted April 18-19, 2023, among 1,845 registered voters. ​For the first time since last year, Americans’ view of the economy has declined and the public continues to take the Republicans’ side on debt negotiations, with 65% wanting Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending. Meanwhile the indictment has strengthened Donald Trump’s standing among Republicans as he extends his lead in an open GOP primary to 55% support, while 65% of voters think Joe Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY WORSEN AFTER 3 MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTSPartisanship determines Americans’ view of the economy: 30% of voters overall say the economy on the right track, but 54% of Democrats think so compared to 12% of Republicans.52% of voters think their personal financial situation is getting worse.INDICTMENT STRENGTHENS TRUMP WITH REPUBLICANS AS DESANTIS FADES BUT IS NOT OUT50% of voters, up 4 points from last month, now think a Trump trial will help his candidacy.61% of voters believe Trump will ultimately be acquitted.In an open GOP primary Trump extends his lead to 55% support, with DeSantis falling to 20% support. In a head-to-head primary against DeSantis, Trump extends his lead to 61%.But 58% of Republican voters say DeSantis is ready to give Trump a “real challenge” for the Republican nomination.VOTERS THINK A BIDEN SECOND TERM MEANS PRESIDENT HARRIS63% of voters think Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO TAKE THE REPUBLICANS’ SIDE ON DEBT NEGOTIATIONS66% of voters think the U.S. government has too much debt and 55% think the government is spending too much.When told the national debt is $31 trillion, 65% of voters want Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending.81% of voters, including 81% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans, support returning the country to a balanced budget.CRIME CONCERNS BECOME LESS PARTISAN AS VOTERS WANT STRICTER PROSECUTION86% of voters think crime is a serious issue right now and 48% think crime and safety are getting worse in their own communities.60% of voters, including 52% of Democrats, think police today are afraid of doing their jobs.58% of Americans, including 43% of Democrats, think big city district attorneys are pulling back from prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently.Voters most blame rising crime in American cities on the worsening economy (23%) and prosecutors who don’t enforce the laws (22%).REGULAR AMERICANS AREN’T FAMILIAR WITH ESG64% of voters have not heard of ESG investing.Americans are split on ESG strategies: after being given the definition, 52% of voters think investment managers have a duty to prioritize returns above all else rather than the option to consider climate and ESG concerns.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the findings of the March Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted March 22-23 among 2,905 registered voters. ​KEY TAKEAWAYS:Joe Biden and Donald Trump are solidifying support among their bases as both stretched their lead by 4-5 points in their respective primaries among party voters. While Americans were very concerned about inflation, 71% think the banking crisis will impact them not at all or only a little bit. Voters are united in seeing China as an enemy (75% think so), but they are split on banning TikTok in the U.S. completely versus allowing it to operate with certain conditions.VOTERS APPROVE OF GOVERNMENT’S BANK INTERVENTIONS BUT AREN'T PERSONALLY CONCERNED ABOUT BANKING CRISIS67% of voters agree with the Biden administration’s decision to step in and guarantee all customer deposits from Silicon Valley Bank and other failed banks.77% of voters think the government should fully insure deposits at all US banks, not only systematically important firms.Americans aren’t worried about the banking crisis reaching them: 71% think the bank failures will impact them not at all or only a little bit. 67% think the deposits in their own banks are safe.Americans care more about inflation than the banking crisis: 54% of voters believe the Federal Reserve should prioritize fighting inflation even if it means allowing banks to fail and could lead to a financial crisis in the short term.AMERICANS AGREE TRUMP INDICTMENT LOOKS POLITICAL BUT SUPPORT OR OPPOSE IT ALONG PARTY LINESVoters are split evenly along party lines on whether they think the Manhattan DA should indict Trump.59% think the indictment is politically motivated, and 67% think the Trump payment in question was a personal, not a campaign, payment.61% of voters, including half of Republicans, agree that Trump’s calls for protests in case he is arrested were irresponsible.AMERICANS UNITED IN CONCERN ABOUT CHINA BUT SPLIT ON TIKTOK BAN75% of voters see China as an enemy of the US, and 80% think it seeks to replace the US as the key player in global affairs.55% of voters think Biden’s foreign policy is too weak on China.Voters support banning TikTok on government devices (75%) but are split on how to handle TikTok for the public: 45% support a full ban in the US, while 46% support allowing the app with conditions such as forcing it to undergo regular security reviews or forcing its Chinese owners to sell their stakes.TRUMP AND BIDEN SOLIDIFY THEIR SUPPORT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SEASON BUT TRUMP HAS A CLEAR CHALLENGERBiden rose 5 points to 41% support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, while Trump rose 4 points to 50% support in a hypothetical Republican primary.A Biden-Trump rematch now looks probable: 57% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the Republican primary, while 60% of Democratic and Independent voters think Biden will win the Democratic primary.Trump has a clear challenger while Biden does not: Ron DeSantis trails Trump in a head-to-head primary matchup by 12 points.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the February Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted February 15-16 among 1,838 registered voters. ​BIDEN HASN’T RECEIVED A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNIONBiden’s State of the Union was received in a partisan manner: voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable, and his approval rating remains at 42%.35% of voters said they did not watch any of the speech.On Biden’s back-and-forth with Republicans on entitlements: 56% of voters believe Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare.VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT SPENDING CURBS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMMost voters continue to side with the Republicans on the looming debt ceiling fight: 62% want Congress to raise the limit only with spending constraints, and 63% think Democrats should negotiate.Voters acknowledge Medicare and Social Security can’t continue without change: 57% think Medicare and Social Security do need reforms to remain solvent.  NIKKI HALEY GETS SOME MOMENTUMNikki Haley rises after her presidential campaign announcement although most voters are still not familiar with her: among GOP voters she rose to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump.Ron DeSantis is slipping slightly: among GOP voters he dropped 10 points in a potential GOP primary without Trump although he is still the frontrunner.The GOP field is open: only 54% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the GOP primary if he runs.AMERICANS ARE CHINA HAWKSThe shot-down surveillance balloon is a major concern to Americans: 66% of voters think it represented a challenge to US sovereignty by China.Americans thought Biden did too little in response: 63% think the Biden administration acted too slowly in shooting down the balloon.Americans also want more answers on the balloon and subsequent shot-down aerial objects: 82% support Congress investigating, and 75% want Biden to disclose what the administration knows.Americans are concerned about China’s aggression in other areas: 69% of voters think China is planning to invade Taiwan in the next 3 years.AMERICANS DOUBT BIDEN ON FOREIGN POLICY ACROSS THE WORLD Biden’s foreign policy approval is low: 40% of voters think Biden has not done a good job on foreign policy including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and China – compared to 27% who think he has done a good job.56% of voters think Biden is not up to handling challenges from China, Russia, and Iran.AMERICANS STILL SUPPORT BIG TECH BUT ARE SUSPICIOUS OF TIKTOK60-70% of voters do not want Big Tech companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Microsoft) to be broken up.TikTok faces more suspicion: 59% of voters think TikTok spies on its US users.Voters are split on a full TikTok ban: 46% think TikTok should be allowed to operate in the US only if the app undergoes regular security reviews of its code base; 42% support a total ban.The FTC is seen as partisan: 48% of voters think it acts as a Democratic agency.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack discuss the  January Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted January 18-19, among 2,050 registered voters. ​ Download KEY FINDINGS.Ahead of the looming debt ceiling fight, 63% of voters want Congress to raise the limit but with restraints on future spending.President Joe Biden faces bipartisan scrutiny over his misplaced classified documents as over 7 in 10 voters support both a House of Representatives and an FBI investigation.  BIDEN’S CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS CONCERN MOST AMERICANS, INCLUDING DEMOCRATS64% of voters, including 44% of Democrats, think the presence of classified documents in several unsecure locations is a “serious” breach of national security.Half of voters, including one-third of Democrats, think the DOJ treated Biden’s classified documents case more leniently than Donald Trump’s.74% of voters, including two-thirds of Democrats, support the Attorney General’s appointment of a special prosecutor for the Biden documents case.VOTERS SIDE WITH REPUBLICANS ON DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS AND SPENDING RESTRAINTSAmericans care greatly about default: 69% of voters, including over two-thirds of each party, think a temporary debt default would be a “huge issue.”When given the size of the national debt ($31 trillion), 63% of voters want Congress to raise the debt limit only with restraints on future spending.Americans side with the GOP on negotiations: 61% of voters, including a slim majority of Democrats themselves, think the Democrats should cave to prevent a default.KEVIN MCCARTHY EMERGES WITH MODERATE CONSERVATIVE IMAGE FROM THE SPEAKERSHIP FIGHT, NOT FAR RIGHT78% of voters see McCarthy as moderate or conservative, not far right.53% of voters, including a majority of both parties, think McCarthy will work with Democrats to create bipartisan legislation.SUPPORT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION UNITES AMERICANS85% of voters, including 88% of Republicans, want legislation that secures Social Security for two more decades.Two-thirds of voters, including 62% of Republicans, want compromise immigration legislation that strengthens the border but also gives DACA recipients a path to citizenship.AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON NON-COMPETES BUT WANT MORE CRYPTOCURRENCY REGULATION60% of Democrats support and 60% of Republicans oppose the prospect of an FTC executive order that would ban all non-compete agreements.A majority of voters want more regulation on cryptocurrencies and consumer privacy/security on the Internet, but less or equal regulation on marijuana.

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the findings of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted from December 14-15, 2022, among 1,851 registered voters. Key takeaways:Nearly two-thirds of voters believe Twitter shadow-banned users and engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election. Seventy percent also want new national laws protecting users from corporate censorship.Joe Biden’s approval rating remains steady at 42% as two-thirds of Americans think inflation is still increasing. Ron DeSantis continues his ascent as the poll shows him defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup for the first time.AMERICANS THINK INFLATION IS INCREASING AND WILL LINGER66% of voters think inflation is increasing, and 61% of voters think inflation will continue for at least another year.But Americans see economic troubles easing slightly: the percentage of voters who think the economy is heading in the right track and who are optimistic about their lives next year both increased by 3 points.Voters are split on whether Biden’s policies caused inflation.IT'S NOW A TWO-WAY GOP RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTISTrump is still the GOP frontrunner in an open field: 48% of GOP voters would choose him in a primary, compared to 25% for DeSantis.But in a GOP head-to-head, DeSantis defeats Trump by 4 points if GOP-leaning Independent voters are included; Trump wins the head-to-head by 10 points among only GOP voters.For the first time, the poll shows DeSantis defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup, by 4 points; Trump would also defeat Biden by 5 points.VOTERS BELIEVE TWITTER ENGAGED IN POLITICAL CENSORSHIP AND ARE ROOTING FOR ELON MUSKAmericans believe in the Twitter Files revelations: 64% think Twitter was secretly shadow banning users, and 64% also think Twitter engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election.Americans like Elon Musk: 61% think Musk is trying to clean up Twitter from abuses, and his personal favorability is 8 points above water.70% of voters, including strong majorities across the political spectrum, support new national laws protecting internet users from corporate censorship.AMERICANS THINK ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS A SERIOUS ISSUE BUT DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERSVoters are concerned about the effects of Biden’s immigration policies: 67% think they have encouraged illegal immigration, and 57% think they are increasing the flow of drugs and crime.Americans are unfamiliar with the extent of illegal immigration: 64% correctly said the number of illegal border crossings has increased under Biden, but the median voter underestimated that number by a factor of 10 (250-500 thousand vs. 2-3 million).Two-thirds of Americans want Biden to issue stricter policies to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, when told the actual number of illegal crossings in the last year (over 2.75 million).

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. This survey was conducted online within the United States from November 16-17, 2022 among 2,212 registered voters. When asked by Cusack to summarize the first poll conducted after 2022 Midterm Elections, Penn offered "FIZZLE".  Download the FULL POLL and TRANSCRIPT.Democrats outperformed expectations in the midterms as they closed the turnout gap by taking advantage of early voting and driving their core issues of protecting democracy and abortion to be most salient after the economy. On the Republican side, Florida governor Ron DeSantis emerged as a big winner. His support in a 2024 GOP primary increased by 11 points among GOP voters while Donald Trump’s fell 9 points, although Trump still leads with 46%.Looking ahead to the new government, a strong majority of voters want to curb Congressional spending, and support for Ukraine is fracturing as Republicans and Independents increasingly soften on the rising price tag of supporting the war.Other key findings include:MIDTERM RESULTS DEMOCRATS MADE UP THE TURNOUT DEFICITDemocrats closed the gap from the pre-election poll which had Likely Voters +3 for the GOP and Registered Voters tied 50-50Democrats took advantage of the early and absentee vote: 52% of Democrats voted before Election Day, compared to 45% of Republicans.One third of Independents sat out the election.Democrats successfully highlighted their core issues: the economy was the most important issue across the board (42%), but protecting democracy (18%) and abortion (16%) were next.UNHAPPINESS WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN PLACEPresident Biden’s approval is flat at 43 percent.4 in 10 voters believe the country is in a recession, and another 4 in 10 think it will be in a recession next year.AMERICAN PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT CONGRESSVOTERS WANT MODERATE SENSIBLE POLICIESRoughly 80% of voters agree they want to reduce misinformation on the Internet and curb Congressional spending.Voters want the parties to moderate themselves: 62% think the Democrats have moved too far to the left, and 56% think the Republicans have moved too far to the right.VOTERS EXPECT A SLATE OF INVESTIGATIONS FROM THE NEW HOUSEVoters want more clarity on possible political bias: Strong majorities think the House should investigate the Hunter Biden laptop (65%), whether technology companies have been censoring political speech (74%), and whether politics have been affecting the FBI’s actions (77%).The January 6 committee continues to be unpopular: 62% of voters want the House to end it.UKRAINE SUPPORT IS SOFTENINGSupport for costly aid packages is decreasing among Republicans and Independents: 61% of Republicans and 59% of Independents oppose providing another $27 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Every month, Mark Penn, Harris Poll Chairman and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill review the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. This month's poll was released together with The Hill this week. The October poll was conducted from October 12-13, 2022, among 2,010 registered voters. ​(Link to the full poll here).Republicans are inching closer towards a wave election as they connect with voters on their key issues of inflation, crime, and immigration. The GOP is now winning the generic Congressional ballot 53-47 among likely voters.Biden continues to struggle, especially on the economy: 84% of Americans think the US is in a recession now or will be by next year, and 55% blame Biden for inflation – including 42% of Democrats. The president’s recent policies on student debt relief and marijuana pardons are popular but don’t move the needle electorally for the Democrats.Other key findings include:VOTERS THINK REPUBLICANS ARE ADDRESSING THEIR TOP ISSUES MORE THAN DEMOCRATSInflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women’s rights, and the environment.AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.58% are not confident in the Biden administration’s ability to keep inflation at bay.Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.BIDEN’S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON’T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY67% approve of Biden’s marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.It’s a similar story for Biden’s student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.Voters are split on whether or not Biden’s policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.

Harris Poll Chairman / Stagwell Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and The Hill's JULIA MANCHESTER discuss the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, conducted September 7-8 among 1,885 registered voters. VIDEO - KEY RESULTS - CROSSTABS - TOPLINE - LINKEDIN - FACEBOOK - INSTAGRAM - TWITTER PUZZLING - The midterms remain nearly a dead heat even though President Joe Biden's approval rating is still underwater at 41%. Inflation remains the biggest concern for voters, over half of whom say the Inflation Reduction Act is more likely to increase rather than decrease inflation. While student debt relief is having little net effect on Democrats’ outlook, the overturn of Roe v. Wade is increasing likelihood to vote Democratic.Results also show the FBI's raid of Donald Trump's residence has not hurt the standing of the former president, whom voters would still pick in a presidential election over Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today. Americans are evenly split on whether the raid was politically motivated, but a clear majority, 58%, think appointing a special master to review the documents taken by the Department of Justice is reasonable.DEMOCRATS HOLD THE DAM AS INFLATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improves.The generic Congressional ballot remains tight, 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.Inflation remains the biggest concern for both Democrats and Republicans, followed by abortion rights for Democrats and immigration for Republicans.BIDEN'S SPEECH ON MAGA REPUBLICANS IS UNPOPULAR AS AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT DIVIDING THE COUNTRYBiden's September 1 speech in Philadelphia, in which he called Trump and MAGA Republicans a threat to the country, is viewed as divisive: 56% of voters, including 62% of Independents, opposed it.Biden's approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration's handling of inflation and unemployment improve.More Americans are concerned about the socialist left rather than MAGA Republicans gaining power, 55-45.AMERICANS WANT TO INVESTIGATE THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY The Hunter Biden laptop story is not going away: 59% of Americans think the laptop story is genuine, not Russian disinformation. 63% of voters think the FBI helped suppress the story by telling tech companies it could be Russian disinformation.63% of voters think the DOJ should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the Biden laptop.BIDEN'S STUDENT LOAN RELIEF DOES NOT AFFECT MANY AMERICANS OR MAKE THEM WANT TO VOTE DEMOCRATICAmericans are evenly split on Biden's cancellation of up to $20,000 of debt for couples making up to $250,000.Only 17% of Americans say they will be personally helped by the program.Voters are skeptical of Biden's method: 56% think it was wrong of Biden to act without Congress, and 52% think his executive order will ultimately be deemed unconstitutional.

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. 2,000 registered voters were surveyed July 28-29, 2022. When asked how he'd sum up the latest polling numbers, Penn offered "HOPE".TRANSCRIPTPenn: I think this month's word is "HOPE". I think this poll shows that all is not lost for the Democrats, despite a very difficult situation out there. A president with very low ratings, the congressional horse race still remains close, which means that Democrats should not give up the ship here and have some hope.Cusack: And that hope certainly would be in keeping the Senate. You know, the House is going to be difficult to retain based upon history and the president's numbers. Why do you think Democrats have had a little bit of a bump here, as you mentioned, and why do you think that the congressional generic polling is, is a dead heat with Biden's numbers still lowPenn: Well, Biden staying at 38% job approval and disapproval on virtually every major issue. But I think in some ways voters have come to separate Biden who they largely think is incompetent or not a good president from the democratic party and the democratic cause in general, as opposed to the Republicans. And so I think the Democrats have some things going for them, certainly choice in guns, helped rally. I think some of their supporters who otherwise really didn't have a big issue that they could fasten on because the election had been otherwise been dominated by inflation and immigration and crime, all Republican leaning, all Republican leading issues. So, and I think finally, you know, the Republican party is a divided party and Trump is knocking down half of the nominees. Some of the Trump nominees that were successful in the primaries are having, you know, a lot of trouble in the general election, particularly Oz in Pennsylvania. And they don't have an effective message machine out there right now. So, so that kind of tilts the page that maybe the, maybe tilts the odds just a little bit from what would otherwise have been a pretty dire situation.Cusack: And of course, Democrats can't get too over confident. The numbers on the economy are not good. There's an intensifying debate on whether we're in a recession or not. Technically we have not heard from this nonprofit group called the National Bureau of Economic Research, which decides that though we have had data of negative growth in consecutive quarters. What the economic numbers mean to you, Mark? And do you think this whole issue of a recession, does it matter? Because a lot of people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one?Penn: Well, most people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one, as you say, but we are definitely in a polling recession. If I were the national bureau of polling, would I declare an economic recession? Absolutely. Because we have 67% who say that the economy is on the wrong track and we have 56% of Americans saying their personal economic situation is worsening. These numbers reflect at least a polling recession. For sure. And I do think this debate about recession or not. I mean, you could Google it every single source and news thing until yesterday has always said that that two quarters of contracting grosses a recession. Recession's not a dep

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. 1,308 registered voters were surveyed earlier this week between June 28-29, 2022. (Link to the full poll here).  When asked how he'd sum up the latest polling numbers, Penn offered "CATACLYSMIC".FULL TRANSCRIPTBob Cusack, The Hill (00:00):To capture the polling that you did, what's the ONE word you'd pick?Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:08):CataclysmicBob Cusack, The Hill (00:10):And why is that?Mark Penn, The Harris Poll (00:12):Well, because the public feeling of, uh, that the economy is on the wrong track and that their personal lives are deteriorating is overwhelming in this poll with 70% or more saying the economy is on the wrong track with the notion that, that their personal lives were deteriorating shooting up so dramatically. Uh, I think that, uh, almost 80% either think we're going into a recession or we're in a recession. I think somehow the message of economic doom and gloom has been completely communicated to this electorate. And that makes for a very, very sour electorate.Bob Cusack, The Hill (00:55):Your polling, Mark, now has the President at 38%. Usually he's been in the low forties in your polls. And obviously this is a very different summer, than last summer when Biden basically had some type of honeymoon Afghanistan hadn't really, turned into the debacle that it did, and his numbers were much higher. Um, you see, the left is frustrated with Biden, you know, compare the numbers of Biden now to Trump, because it seems like with Trump, he was always in the forties and he held down to the base. I know you made the case and I agree with you that he should have gone for more independence, but Biden's losing everybody right now.