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© 2023 Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
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Exciting news for all listeners: Neil Howe's podcast is undergoing an exciting transformation and emerging with a brand-new name—"Trend Watch". From now on, all upcoming episodes will be exclusively available in full on Substack. But that's not all—Neil's new Substack newsletter launching August 21, 2023, will feature thought-provoking insights on demographic, economic, and generational trends. Stay informed, stay engaged, and stay ahead of the trends!
Visit: www.demographyunplugged.com to subscribe.
Neil Howe’s podcast is designed to help savvy investors and business leaders uncover hidden trends and critical developments driving world markets and economies. It’s like peering into the future. Discover the likely winners (and losers) of “big ideas” as renowned demographer Neil Howe – the guy who coined the term “Millennial” – distills game-changing new developments down to their essence.
Neil Howe is an acclaimed historian, economist, and demographer and the bestselling author (with William Strauss) of The Fourth Turning, the New York Times Bestselling follow-up book, The Fourth Turning is Here, as well as over a dozen books on demographic and social change. The nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future—Howe is Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates, which serves hundreds of corporate, nonprofit, and government clients.
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1In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we replay a recent interview I did with Chuck Todd, who invited me on his podcast “The Chuck ToddCast from Meet the Press.” We had a great conversation and discussed Millennials' and other generations' impact on politics. Trust me, this was a fun interview. **********The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling au...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we devote most of our conversation to China's decennial census. The results were mysteriously delayed, which had many insiders suspecting a dreaded population dip. But recently released provisional data show a slight population increase to 1.41 billion people. Could this be? I go behind all the ins and outs of how China counts its population, and provide theories on what the "true" count may be. Bolsonaro on the defense. Brazil's Senate has opened an...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we pay tribute to John Williamson and Walter Mondale, RIP. Williamson died at the age of 84. He is most famous for in 1989 defining the "Washington Consensus," a list of what emerging market economies should or must do to succeed. While his theory is no longer popular, it was highly influential following the Reagan and Thatcher era. Mondale died at the age of 93. He famously lost the presidential election of 1984 in an abject defeat to Ronald Reagan....
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of Biden's agenda. Last week, the White House officially unveiled its $2T infrastructure package. The plan is popular among the public, and due to reconciliation, it only needs 50 votes to pass the Senate. Biden will also try to pass a minimum wage increase, a voting rights bill, and immigration reform. But these bills can't be passed through reconciliation and will need 60 votes to bypass the filibuster. While their chances of ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's immigration strategy. Currently, the White House is using former President Trump's executive orders (notably Title 42) to handle the nearly 6,000 daily border crossings. But what's Biden's long-term plan? It largely mirrors the 2013 Senate bill, penned by the "Gang of 8." Undocumented immigrants could become citizens if they pay taxes, take a background test, and work in the US for an additional eight years. Turkey's Lira tumb...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's infrastructure package. The plan will cost nearly $4T over ten years. The money will be divided as follows: $1.4T for straight infrastructure, $600B for clean energy, $400B for manufacturing, $300B for innovation/R&D, and $800B for the caregiver economy. To pass this bill, Senate Democrats will need to use reconciliation. If it does pass, it will be a major win for Biden. Infrastructure has broad bipartisan appeal among the gen...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's and the Democrats' agenda. The Senate has passed the massive $1.9B stimulus package. The bill is also set to pass the House this week. This was a major win for the Democrats. Not only is the package popular among the general public, but it has considerable support among Republican voters. Biden has now turned his efforts towards HR.1, a voting reform package. This bill has almost no chance of passing the Senate, and it takes away f...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I answer listener-submitted questions. Is multi-generational housing a long-term trend? Are we transitioning from an ‘era of logic’ to an ‘era of emotion’? Is America paralleling the decline of the Roman Empire? I go in-depth on all of these questions and more. China accelerates "Hanification" efforts. Xi Jinping's cultural campaign aims to transform all non-Han cultures in China into "Han" culture. These efforts include promoting Han food, Han ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the current state of the GOP. Last week, ten Republican representatives voted to impeach--and seven Republican senators voted to remove--Donald Trump. That is the largest number of other-party senators voting for removal from office in U.S. history. A day later, Trump excoriated Mitch McConnell, calling into question his leadership. The GOP once prided itself on unity while the Democrats struggled to pull together. Now the tables have turn...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I answer listener summited questions. Is Joe Biden a grey champion? Is America in danger of entering a new war? Does policy matter in times of extreme partisanship? Is America paralleling the decline of the Roman Empire? Have pandemic lockdowns created a new baby boom? I go in-depth on all of these questions and more. We start the podcast with a brief market update and a world news roundup. Former ECB president Mario Draghi has been asked ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent conversation with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist. We look back at the results of the 2020 elections and how changes in demographics and partisanship will affect the Biden White House and the 117th Congress. JT and I also examine the upcoming elections in 2022 and 2024.We start the podcast with a brief market update and some overall lessons from the recent GME saga. For more on my take on GME, you can turn to this m...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the threat of Covid-19 adaptive mutations. Moderna-NIH just released their new study on the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine against the South African mutation. Yes, the vaccine protects against the new variant, but the antibodies' strength is reduced by 4 to 6X. This is the first sign that vaccines will most likely need to be updated in the future. Suga's public approval plummets. The Japanese PM's approval rating has fallen from...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of the economy. I predict we will see three distinct phases. In the next few weeks, the economy will continue to decelerate, with accompanying market turbulence, to the mobility drop associated with Covid-19. But going forward over the next several months into the summer, both will go strongly positive, buoyed by the vaccine and Biden stimulus. In 2H, however, look for outlook to darken just when the party is rockin'--due ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Georgia elections. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossof beat Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. Both Warnock and Ossof won by over 0.5%, avoiding an automatic recount. Ultimately this is good news for markets. While traditional wisdom says markets want a divided Congress, the recent chaos has led them to hope for a united government.Pro-Trump protesters storm the Capital Building. Despite the protesters' wishes, the siege ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest news on vaccines. The FDA reports that the Moderna vaccine is "highly effective" after examining the trial data. They are expected to give emergency approval by Friday. The Moderna vaccine is easier to handle than the Pfizer vaccine because it does not need to be stored at Antarctic temperatures. This will be key to supplying rural communities.The US is likely to enter an accelerating recovery in 1Q + 2Q. How quickly is open to ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Brian McGough, sector head of Retail here at Hedgeye. In this interview, we take on the longer-term consequences of six big earthquakes shaking the retail universe. 1. The Home Improvement Effect/Household Formation. 2. E-comm vs. Brick & Mortar shopping. 3. Fast-Fashion, Slow Fashion, and Thrifting. 4. Branding – Relevance then vs. now. 5. Retail Bankruptcies and Mall closures. 6. Amazon vs. Walmart.Brian ...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Andrew Freedman, sector head of Communications here at Hedgeye. The last time Andrew and I got together in June 2020, we discussed "Media in the Pandemic Age," examining how the crisis has impacted consumption trends by generation. This time around, we take a deep dive into three topics: online dating during the pandemic, the ever-evolving potential of interactive media, and the possible regulation of social media. A...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the race for a vaccine. Both Pfizer and Moderna announced that preliminary data show that their vaccines are over 90% effective. Yet despite the good news, there are still some major hurdles for these vaccines. 1. They have to be stored at sub-zero temperatures. 2. There is deep public distrust in their safety. 3. There hasn't been time to study their long-term effects (ADE, cross-reactivity, immunity duration, etc.).Is political polling d...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with Keith McCullough, Hedgeye's CEO. In the interview, we talk about the election, what the polls got right and wrong, and how 2020 fits into our longer-term 4th Turning perspective on history and generational change. A large section of the interview was spent answering listener questions. And as usual, we start the podcast with an update on the S&P's recent rise while examining how Biden's economic policies could af...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist and Paul Glenchur, Hedgeye's Senior TMT Policy Analyst. With the election a few days away, the race for the White House and Congress is on track to be the most divisive and expensive in history. Joe Biden, while fading slightly in his lead over Donald Trump, remains decisively ahead. For Trump to barely squeak by in the Electoral College, he would need an incredible sur...
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