US Elections Untangled

What will be first on president Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda, when he takes office in January? How will US foreign policy change after power has changed hands? Will the unusual transition period impact the Biden administration’s ability to govern effectively from day one? In this final episode of US Elections Untangled, Senior Research fellow Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Research Fellow Ville Sinkkonen discuss the implications of Joe Biden’s victory to the United States’ relationships with the rest of the world – including Finland and the rest of the Nordics.

What does the tight presidential race mean to the future of the United States? What will president Trump do if Joe Biden emerges victorious after all the votes have been counted?

The US has always had a tricky relationship with the UN and the International Criminal Court, but under President Donald Trump the attitude towards those international bodies has become downright hostile.How different will the US treat the UN, the ICC and human rights issues if Joe Biden wins the election? There are many crucial differences between the two candidates’ approaches, says Leading Researcher Katja Creutz from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“America first is not a policy that puts human beings first.”

What will be Donald Trump’s foreign policy legacy, if Joe Biden wins the election and Trump steps down after one full term in office?“As trumpian ideas about American (global) leadership role have become more mainstream, it has created a situation where we can expect a lot more oscillation, more violent swings between different administrations when it comes to the United States’ approach to its international role,” says Research Fellow Ville Sinkkonen from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“That’s an international level manifestation of the Trump phenomenon.”

The German-US relationship has gone from friendly to acrimonious under president Trump, and now Germany is anxious to see if the November elections will bring about a sea change in Washington. The results will have profound implications for Germany.“The German foreign policy model is very much on the ballot in these US elections,” says Leading Researcher Niklas Helwig from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“If it’s another four years of Trump, that means Germany will have to engage much more internationally, and because of Germany’s very hesitant foreign policy approach that is a very difficult task.”

The increasing antagonism between the US and China has put the countries in the Indo-Pacific region in a tough spot, and the American presidential elections are unlikely to make their life easier regardless of the result.“US-China rivalry will continue. That is here to stay”, says Project Director Bart Gaens from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“What we will continue to be seeing is that (the Indo-Pacific) countries are hedging and balancing the US and China against each other.”

As the UK is leaving the EU, it needs its special relationship with the US more than in decades. “Brexit is now happening, and the transition period with the EU will end at the end of this year,” says EU Programme Director Juha Jokela from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “That will have huge implications. I think it will be very important for the UK that there is clarity for its economy and businesses and citizens.” Unfortunately for the post-Brexit UK, neither the re-election of President Donald Trump nor the election of Joe Biden has necessarily positive implications for it. Trump has been a vocal supporter of Brexit, but his America First approach has made it hard for the US and the UK to negotiate a trade deal. Biden, on the other hand, has made it clear that he will take a hard line if the UK goes through with its plans to violate last year’s Brexit withdrawal agreement. Perhaps the worst outcome of all, however, would be an unclear election result that would make the US-UK relationship entirely unpredictable just as the UK is leaving the EU. “If there is a deadlock in the US, that will make it very difficult for the UK to find guidelines for the future.”

Can Latin America help us understand the present-day US? Despite the big differences between the regions, Global Security Programme Director Mikael Wigell from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs sees striking similarities between Latin American countries and the US.In both regions, Wigell sees similar dividing lines that together create a polarized society, which in turn makes democratic governance difficult. That is fertile ground for populist leaders who feed on controversy.“You have a ruler who rules as he or she sees fit without caring much about checks and balances or the rule of law, -- which is what we see a lot of in the US today under Trump, we see a very Latin American type of politics,” Wigell says.“Trump is the ultimate Latin American ‘caudillo’, a strongman.”

Are American political actors deliberately trying to undermine democracy in their own country? What should we think about President Trump’s repeated attacks on mail-in voting, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy’s restructuring of the postal service or Republican National Convention’s decision to sue states over mail-in voting?Trump “is entering into the gray area of election meddling. We know how the Russians did it (in 2016) and now we can see if the domestic actors are doing similar type of activities”, says Mika Aaltola, Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“The worst possible outcome is the process going gradually towards a more and more managed democracy, ie. autocracy. Like in Russia and Belarus, where they still have elections, but those are managed and fraudulent, really flawed.”

For the EU, the Trump presidency has meant the end of innocence, the realization that the US may not be there for Europe. Hence, Europe has to learn to stand on its own two feet.“European leaders have had to come to terms with the fact that the relationship with the US can change,” says EU Programme Director Juha Jokela from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.European leaders are hoping the relationship will get better if Joe Biden becomes the next president. Jokela points out, that even if it does, many things have already changed in the increasingly multipolar world, where power politics and geoeconomic reasoning play an important role.“This is a point in time when a more constructive US­-EU relationship could have had a real impact on the development, and that opportunity has been lost.”

November will determine, what American environmental policy will look like for the next four years both domestically and internationally. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in many ways different, but one of the biggest differences in their policy platforms concerns the environment. In what ways has the US influenced the global fight against climate change so far and just how different a part might it play in the future? Visiting Senior Fellow Emma Hakala from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs offers her assessment.

The presidency of Donald Trump has threatened the transatlantic alliance unlike any other presidency since World War II. Trump’s rhetoric towards NATO allies has been very harsh, but the reality behind his words has in fact been quite different.“The Trump administration’s approach to European security has been a traditional hard line Republican view: that Russia is a threat, defense matters and Europeans should be supported,” says Senior Research Fellow Matti Pesu from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.The situation “has been quite paradoxical: politically the Commander-in-Chief keeps undermining the political alliance but militarily and on the administrative level things are happening and even improving.”Many would like to believe that a Biden victory in November could restore the relationship overnight. However, Pesu is skeptical.“Even if Biden won, I still wouldn’t expect rosy years ahead.”

When a traditional politician lies, they do their best not to get caught. When a post-truth politician speaks, they might not even know whether their words are true or not.In November, Americans will make a choice between a traditional politician and a post-truth one.“Trump is a great example of a post-truth strategist,” says Leading Researcher Antto Vihma from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“You can just bluff and not care about truth and falsehood at all, and that is what president Trump is known to do.”

When Donald Trump was elected, Russian politicians celebrated. But just like his predecessors, Trump has failed to build a better relationship with the cold-war era adversary.Programme director Arkady Moshes from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs believes the US-Russian relationship is doomed to stay bad regardless of who wins in November.“It’s practically impossible, that Russia would give the United States what it wants and the other way round,” he says.“We’re basically stuck in a very difficult and complicated relationship that is not going to get any better any time soon.”

In 2016, Donald Trump criticized the sitting president’s choices concerning Iran, and now Joe Biden is doing the same in his presidential campaign. The future of the US-Iranian relationship hinges on the outcome of the November elections.Last January, many feared the two countries were on the brink of war, but since then tensions have decreased.”I think [the Iranians] are keeping their options open,” says Research Fellow Mariette Hägglund from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, “until they find out the results of the presidential elections.”“By escalating the situation they would close the door for negotiations or dialogue.”Hägglund believes Iran is open to negotiating with the United States if the country elects a new president who takes a different approach. But what will the Iranians do if Trump gets a second term?“I honestly don’t think they themselves know.”

Did Russian election meddling tip the 2016 election? Could Russia, China or Iran succeed in influencing the outcome in 2020?“Undermining the reputation of Hillary Clinton through disinformation and cyber-oriented attacks against the Clinton campaign might have actually tipped the election in favor of Donald Trump,” says Global Security Programme Director Mikael Wigell from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.Wigell has seen clear evidence of several foreign powers trying to meddle in the 2020 elections.“I think Western democracy has never really been under these sorts of threats before.”

What will determine whom the Americans vote for in November? In 2016 President Trump was able to appeal to many Americans’ identities. Joe Biden might have a harder time using that strategy this year.Joe Biden’s pitch to the voters is “do we want to have another four years of Trump? If you’re answering in any way 'No', then you must vote for me even if you do not like me, even if you disagree with me,” says senior research fellow Charly Salonius-Pasternak from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.“And that is a hard pitch to make, to get people really fired up to go to vote.”

Is the United States sliding towards autocracy? Can the 2020 elections turn out in a way that threatens the longest standing democracy in the world?“We are living in very dramatic, tense times and quite a lot is hanging in the air,” says Mika Aaltola, Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and the guest of the first episode of the US Elections Untangled podcast.Aaltola sees many red flags about the health of the American democracy. One alarming tendency is the dehumanization of political opponents that has led to chants of “Lock her up”, demands of investigations into the sitting president’s actions and even some Americans finding it acceptable for the president to ask foreign powers for help with his re-election.When a political opponent “becomes more of an enemy than your geopolitical foe, then something big has happened,” Aaltola points out.