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© 2023 The Special Situation Cast
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Discussion of market events and investment ideas with top analysts, portfolio managers, hedge fund managers, experts and other investment professionals primarily revolving special situation, even driven or market neutral investing.
29 Episodes
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In the first episode of Season 2 of The Special Situations Cast, I'm interviewing the savvy as well as entertaining master speculator Kuppy of Praetorian Capital. Well known for his Adventures in Capitalism blog as well as his appearances on Real Vision and The Market Huddle. We talk about St.Joe's, Oil, Crypto, and Kuppy's Event-Driven Monitor which is the source of his many creative ideas. I do a lot of event-driven and special-situation investing myself and I've been impressed by the breadth and uniqueness of the screens included. Quite a few of the screens aren't even available through Bloomberg. I learn how to use the Fallen Angels and Left-for-Dead screens and some of the more proprietary screens that are part of the service. You can find Kuppy on Twitter here:https://twitter.com/hkuppyhttps://adventuresincapitalism.com/
I'm interviewing Julian Klymochko, host of the Absolute Returns podcast and co-founder CEO of @AccelerateFT. We talk about why he started his firm, how he's approaching SPACs. What are the things he's looking for. The biggest position in the SPAC fund is $CCIV. How do you risk manage that? The Should you pay $13 for a SPAC with a really great sponsor? What about the John Malone (The Cable Cowboy) related Liberty Media SPAC? $LMACA How are things going with getting allocations pre-IPO? His firm's website Accelerate | Hedge Fund and Private Equity ETFsHis Twitter: here.
I just interviewed Lily Francus, a Phd student in Bioinformatics, who's quite active on Fintwit. She wrote a paper called Delta Gamma Hedging Impact On S&P 500 Returns. She also co-developed an interesting indicator. Developed for S&P 500 but it likely works on the NASDAQ. Lily explains the general idea in the interview. Lily also wrote a series of posts about the hedge fund vs Wall Street Bets Gamma war going on in Gamestop (GSE), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), Blackberry (BB), and others. It was extra informative to talk to Lily about the Gamestop situation and get her input on that. You can find her here:https://nope-its-lily.medium.com/https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily
I just interviewed Aaron Edelheit; CEO of Mindset Capital, manager of the Mindset Value Fund and author of The Hard Break: The Case for a 24/6 Lifestyle. He started out managing a friend’s portfolio in 1998 above his parent’s garage. He subsequently outperformed 11 years by 800 basis points per year in a former vehicle. We talk about strategy, Nintendo, U.S. vs Canadian Cannabis investing and a French gaming name.https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/https://twitter.com/aaronvalue?lang=en
Interview with Evan Ratner, SPAC Portfolio Manager at Easterly Alternatives. Evan has a background in event-driven and special-situations investments but is currently primarily focused on SPACs. SPACs are special-purpose acquisitions companies and they are the latest investment fad. We get into what are the most attractive industries, what kind of SPACs may not be great targets, what kind of SPACs are best targets, and how Evan selects his targets to build a portfolio.Redball (RBAC) is a SPAC rumored to go after the Red Sox. We briefly talk about Bill Foley who I've wrote about recently in - Foley Trasimene Acquisition II Wants To Dominate U.S. Gaming With Skrill And Neteller (NYSE:BFT), Quantumscape (QS) and its warrants, ex-GM President Barry Angle's Qell Acquisition Corp (QELL), another Richard Branson vehicle called VG Acquisition (VGAC) and Sam Zell's Equity Distribution Acquisition Corp (EQD). Of course, we couldn't ignore Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (PSTH).Here are some links to articles mentioned:Bloomberg: HereFun Substack: Ratlinks ReduxEvan's Twitter: Here
I just interviewed Corey Hoffstein, Chief Investment Officer and co-founder, of quant shop Newfound Research. Corey has a background in computer science Newfound Research is a quantitative asset management firm based out of Boston, MA. Its first focus is on managing risk and the firm developed a lot of knowledge around the trend-following approach.Corey recently wrote a very interesting quarterly letter and published a fascinating piece of research called The Liquidity Cascade a while back. In the liquidity cascade, Corey dives into the effect of a number of theories about market distortion and concludes these together result in a Lollapalooza effect on the market and S&P 500. These theories include Fed policy, flows into passive, market cash flows, and the effects of hedging needs. Ultimately, his research led Corey to think about designing a whole new portfolio framework.Newfound Researchhttps://www.thinknewfound.com/Corey Hoffstein Twitterhttps://twitter.com/choffstein
I interview Clearfind co-founder James Layfield to help me better understand the Salesforce and Slack deal. Clearfind is specialized in software management solutions. Clearfind has a database of around 50.000 software products in 800 software categories.James helps me understand whether Salesforce can go after Microsoft and whether Alphabet or even Facebook are potential rivals. I'm curious if the combination can attack new business lines or categories. Can there be revenue synergies? Are there other players that could also want in and potential for a bidding war? Is the merger likely to help Salesforce to expand its foothold in the SMB space? What churn, an important metric in SAAS valuation, can we expect? Clearfind https://home.clearfind.com/James Layfieldhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jameslayf...
I interview Tim Bergin of On Beyond Investing which is an investment idea company. He takes a deep, fundamental, research-driven approach, to investing. Tim has 12 years of experience as a trader on a proprietary credit trading desks and a hedge fund in New York and Toronto. He left the industry desiring more freedom and now manages his own portfolio and investments.I invited Tim to do a deep-dive into the strongest mortgage REIT. He explains in-depth why he likes the space and why AGNC specifically. He gets into its strong suits but also into key risks he perceives, as well as how to handle those.After that deep dive, we briefly talk about the SPAC craze that's going. The many SPACs coming to market offer plenty of opportunities to do well for investors willing to put in the work. Tim shares ideas like Pershing Square Holdings If you want to check out what Tim does or his service you can find it At On Beyond Investing. As you'll see when you read his work or watch my interview with him, he's very thoughtful with a sense of humility while he comes up with very interesting and creative ideas. He very much ventures beyond basic investing.Want to reach out or engage with Tim, you'll find him on Twitter here.
I’m interviewing Javier López-Bernardo. Portfolio manager at the Brightgate Capital Focus Fund. I’ve split up the interview in two thematic parts. This is part I, and it will primarily concerns the Russian oil giant Lukoil (LUKOY) (LUKOF), but first we go into Javier’s overarching investment philosophy, Stephen Penman of Columbia University is a major inspiration for Javier’s valuation modelCompany website:https://brightgatecapital.com/en/brig...
Perth Tolle is the founder of the Life + Liberty indexes which launched one product so far the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM). Perth was born in Beijing and moved to the United States at age 9. Her career started at Fidelity, she became VP at Amplify ETF’s before starting the Life + Liberty indexes. When I first heard about the Freedom 100 ETF I was immediately drawn to this elegant concept. It is a version of an Emerging Markets passive exposure product but with one crucial twist. Instead of weighing positions on a market cap base, this ETF weighs country exposure based on measures of freedom.It results in a higher-quality portfolio that potentially still benefits from the GDP tailwinds that emerging markets tend to experience. https://freedometfs.com/frdm/https://www.lifeandlibertyindexes.com/https://twitter.com/Perth_Tolle
Cate Long has a background in finance with ING Barings, ABN Amro, and others. She's been a long-time columnist for Reuters and predicted the future insolvency of Puerto Rico in 2012 when that wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Now she runs Puerto Rico Clearinghouse an advisory for PR bondholders. The PR bankruptcy is a tragic case but also an interesting special situation. Cate helps me to understand the basics. Cate's Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cate_longPuerto Rico Clearinghousehttp://www.pr-clearing.com/
Jan Svenda, of Svenda's Manual of Stocks talks to me about the launch of his new database for OTC and dark companies. There are almost 500 companies in the database. He talks about two new OTC ideas, that are in his database, one of which likely yields 19.8% for next year. You can find Jan on Twitter https://twitter.com/JanSvendaYou can find his manual here; https://svendamanual.com/After the interview, he very kindly gave me a discount code for viewers/listeners. Put in the coupon: BRAM and you get 15% off.
Christian Herzeca talks me through the special situation around the GSE’s Fannie & Freddie. He breaks the case down to political, legal and practical layers. One thing I’m taking away is that studying the legal argument greatly adds to confidence. These are some of America’s great companies with great business models. Effectively a regulated duopoly. The political side of the situation draws a lot of attention there is too much fear of the Democrats taking the election. In practice, there are ways for FHFA director Calabra to mitigate that threat. Key reading material to get up to speed are the following documents: Moelis Blueprint (November 2018) Collins 5 th C en banc opinion Seila Scotus opinion Timothy Howard’s (former Fannie Mae CFO) blog: HOWARD ON MORTGAGE FINANCE He also wrote The Mortgage Wars
I am talking to Andrew Walker, portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital and his widely read YAVB blog In this episode, we discuss: Madison Square Garden and the worst run team in the NBA The Taubman / Simon Property M&A deal The Tiffany's and LVMH M&A deal Cable companies Twitter / the worst run social media property in the NASDAQ? (I'm detecting a pattern here) Kontoor Brands; dividend stock that suspended its dividend And more. You can find Andrew's must-read blog here (http://yetanothervalueblog.com/) and he's also on Twitter https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley
I am talking to Lizz Hall, an independent investor, marketer and famous Fintwitter. In this episode, we discuss: How she got started in investing with a concentrated portfolio and chained together several monster investments. A search strategy that starts by immersion in culture Investments in $TGT, $AMZN, $LON:GAW, $MAR Why Elon Musk is the greatest CEO of all-time And more. You can find Liz on Twitter here (investment philosophy super thread): https://twitter.com/LAForeverHall/status/1205981236960714754?s=20
This is part II of my interview with Chris DeMuth Jr, co-founder and hedge fund manager at Rangeley Capital. Chris is also the author of Sifting the World. He writes about SPAC, value, arbitrage, and event-driven top-performing ideas. Although Chris is a highly experienced investor the interview is geared towards the SPAC market. This is currently a major focus of Chris and it shows in this interview. We talk about Churchill Capital IV, Bridgetown Holdings, Pershing Square Holdings, Virgin Galactic, Desktop Metal and other SPACs.You can find Chris and Sifting The World here:https://seekingalpha.com/author/chris... or on Twitter here:https://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJr
This is part I of my interview with Chris DeMuth Jr, co-founder and hedge fund manager at Rangeley Capital. Chris is also the author of Sifting the World. He writes about SPAC, value, arbitrage, and event-driven top-performing ideas. Although Chris is a highly experienced investor the interview is geared towards the SPAC market. This is currently a major focus of Chris and it shows in this interview. I had so much to ask him the interview ran quite long. We talk about Churchill Capital IV, Bridgetown Holdings, Pershing Square Holdings, Virgin Galactic, Desktop Metal and other SPACs I'll post part II of the interview imminently.You can find Chris and Sifting The World here:https://seekingalpha.com/author/chris... or on Twitter here:https://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJr
I interview Patrick Finn who is a Maritime Technology Analyst at Thetius. Thetius is focused on analysis and research into emerging maritime technologies. I'm interested in Scorpio Bulkers which is a maritime company that's selling all of its bulkers and moving into windfarm installation vessels. Patrick helps me understand the Jones Act and other applicable regulations better. Why is it in place? What is the effect of the jones act on the maritime industry? Could this hamper the development of U.S. offshore wind? Is it possible to operate in U.S. waters while skirting the Jones Act? We talk about the “Clean Economy Jobs and Innovation Act,” H.R. 4447. For example, congress asked for clarifications of the bill regarding wind vessels. Could this hurt or help the industry?Near the end, we also get into some of the technologies that could make shipping more efficient, more profitable, and more environmentally friendly. Relevant links to the discussion:https://maritime-executive.com/editor...Patrick Finnhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/pwfinn/Thetiushttps://thetius.com/
I just interviewed Maleeha Bengali. She runs an active trading and investment recommendation newsletter focusing on commodities and commodity-related equities. She uses a top-down macro perspective and combines that with bottom-up fundamental relative value analysis.Maleeha is extremely well informed about what's going on in the commodity space. But she also gained the experience and built the systems that let her turn all that information into actionable insights. I found it super interesting to learn what she's thinking about the current state of affairs but also to find out more about how she developed her investment/trading philosophy. You can find MBB Corner here http://t.co/88GmSw4IQF?amp=1and follow Maleeha on Twitter here. https://twitter.com/MaleehaMBCC?ref_s...
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