AHR Weekly Market Update Podcast

On this week’s AHR Market review.Equity markets staged a recovery over the week following the recent slump.In the U.S., approximately a third of S&P 500 companies, accounting for 40% of the index's market cap, have reported their earnings for the first quarter.Economic data from the U.S. painted a less rosy picture. The Commerce Department's preliminary estimate indicated that the economy grew at a meagre annualised rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, significantly trailing the anticipated 2.5%.The Commerce Department also highlighted that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—climbed at an annualised 3.7% in the first quarter, outpacing expectations and exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target for sustainable inflation.U.S. equities ended the week up by 2.7%, buoyed by strong earnings, with technology stocks particularly strong, rallying by 4.2%.In fixed income markets, global yields increased over the week, reacting to the higher-than-anticipated U.S. inflation figures. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Stock markets suffered their third straight week of losses amid concerns about Middle East tensions and the likelihood of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer. In economic news, robust figures from the U.S. Commerce Department indicated that retail sales in March surged by 0.7%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.3%, and up from a revised 0.9% increase in February. In the UK, consumer price inflation dropped to 3.2% in March, the lowest in two and a half years but slightly less than analysts had anticipated. China reported a better-than-expected 5.3% economic growth for the first quarter of 2024, bolstered by a 6.1% increase in industrial output.U.S. stock indices fell by 3% over the week, with technology stocks particularly affected, dropping by 5.5% as investors re-adjusted their rate expectations.Yields of U.S. government bonds rose for the third week in a row as investors continued to rein in their expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts.Oil prices experienced volatility, with U.S. crude briefly topping $85 per barrel due to the tensions between Israel and Iran. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Equity markets fell over the week following hotter than expected US CPI data and heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s attempted missile strikes on Israel.Just one month ago markets had placed a high probability that the US Federal Reserve would cut its interest rates at it’s upcoming June and July meetings. Later in the week stocks pulled back sharply, in the wake of reports that Iran was preparing to directly attack facilities on Israeli soil for the first time. US equity markets fell 1.6% over the week, with small and midcap stocks fairing worse than mega-cap growth names. In the wake of Wednesday’s inflation report, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to the highest level in five months, as it climbed as high as 4.59% at one point. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.In a week that capped off the end of the first quarter, equity markets finished slightly higher ahead of the Easter break. In the latest dispatch from the economic front, the U.S. Federal Reserve's favoured barometer for monitoring inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index - has unveiled a more moderate ascent in consumer prices. Meanwhile, a surge in consumer spending has led to an upward revision of the final quarter's economic expansion figures in the US.US equity markets ended the holiday shortened week at record highs, finishing up 0.4%. European equities advanced 0.59% despite softer economic data from Germany suggesting slower growth throughout 2024.On the commodities front, both gold and oil have continued their impressive performance, notching substantial weekly gains.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Global equity markets enjoyed a week of solid gains following a host of key Central bank meetings from around the world.On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve held its March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and also released an updated set of economic projections.A similar narrative was relayed in the UK as the Bank of England's rate-setters voted 8-1 to keep borrowing costs at their 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday, as the two officials who had previously called for higher rates changed their stance.In contrast, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, ending the world’s last remaining policy of negative rates.All major US equity indices posted returns in excess of 2% over the week following the dovish tone set by the Federal Reserve. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Welcome to this week’s AHR market review for the week ending 17th March 2024.Inflation data from the US came in slightly above expectations, leading to a second week of declines for US equity markets whilst European equities etched out gainsThe US consumer price index rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Gasoline prices rebounded 3.8% after declining in January.The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.6% in February, roughly double consensus estimates and the most in six months.In the UK the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in the three months to the end of January.US equities finished the week marginally negative following mixed inflation data announcements.Yields of U.S. government bonds rose as the latest inflation data produced a slight shift in the interest-rate outlook.Looking to the week ahead the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting that concludes Wednesday, and Fed observers will watch for any clues about the timing of eventual rate cuts this year.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Global equity markets ended the week mixed as fixed income markets posted gains following key central bank announcements and US employment data that showed a healthy but slowing US labour market.The U.S. nonfarm-jobs report last week was somewhat mixed but overall pointed to early signals of a U.S. labour market that is cooling. In testimony before Congress, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's intention to cut interest rates at some point this year, provided inflation data continues to show continued easing. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, in his last Spring Budget before a general election, unveiled a reduction in national insurance rates that would amount to a GBP 10 billion payroll tax cut.US equities finished slightly lower for the week whilst US technology fell -1.2%. European equities rose 1.14% to record highs whilst the UK market fell 0.3%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to its lowest level in five weeks. In commodities, oil prices fell -2.7% over the week whilst the price of gold futures surged more than 6% to a record high of around $2,200 an ounce on Friday afternoon. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Equity markets continued to etch higher in a week where the Nasdaq joined the equity record club.The US Commerce Department’s release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was the main focus point of the week for investors.The latest estimate of US GDP for quarter four 2023 showed the US economy increased at a 3.2% annualised rate last quarter, revised slightly down from the previously reported 3.3% pace.US equities rose around 1% over the week alongside US technology stocks rising 1.7% as sentiment remains strong following a healthy quarterly earnings season.In commodities the price of U.S. crude oil topped $80 per barrel on Friday, rising to the highest level in about four months.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Global equity markets posted another positive week of performance led by US technology stocks.The earnings announcement from Nvidia saw the company smash earnings and revenue expectations, as well as providing positive guidance for the remainder of the year around demand for AI focused semi-conductors.US equity markets continued to reach new highs over the week, rising 1.7%, driven by the bumper earnings announcement from Nvidia on Wednesday.Within commodities, oil prices fell about 2%, reversing course from the prior week’s gain, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Looking to the week ahead, Wednesday’s scheduled release of an updated U.S. GDP estimate will be among the week’s most closely watched economic reports.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Global equity markets continued their strong start to the year, with nearly all major indices moving higher for the week whilst bonds declined as investors contemplate when central banks may begin cutting interest rates. In the space of three weeks, slightly negative expectations for the current quarterly earnings season turned solidly positive. Further suggestion that investors might have to wait for rate cuts came from the UK this week as a labour market update estimated the unemployment rate at 3.9% for the three months through November—lower than the 4.3% that the Bank of England forecast for the final quarter of 2023.China’s consumer price index fell by 0.8% year on year in January, the fifth month that prices were either flat or falling, raising concerns that a deflationary cycle is becoming entrenched. US equities increased 1.4%, US technology equities 2.3% for the week, as growth stocks continued to lead the markets rally following a strong quarter four earnings season so far. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed over the week to 4.17%, as Government bond yields continued their rise since the start of the year. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Central bank decisions and major corporate earnings announcements were under the spotlight during the week as equity markets continued their strong start to the year.On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee kept benchmark interest rates in the 5.25%-5.50% range and announced that rate cuts would not be appropriate until there is "greater confidence that inflation is moving" towards the central bank's 2% target.The Bank of England (BoE) also held its key interest rate steady at an almost 16-year high of 5.25% but appeared to signal that it would consider lowering it for the first time since consumer price inflation accelerated after the coronavirus pandemic.While the Fed rate announcement produced no surprises, that wasn't the case for the latest US jobs report. The US economy added 353,000 payrolls in January, double the consensus estimate.In a busy week, some of the world’s largest companies announced their fourth-quarter earnings reports, with several releases from heavily weighted tech giants driving movements in the major benchmarks.US equities rose over 1% for the week, marking the 13th positive result out of the past 14 weeks.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.US equity markets etched higher to new record highs over the week, as global equity markets rallied following positive US economic data, European Central Bank comments and the announcement of Chinese economic stimulus.U.S. economic growth continues to surprise to the upside. Fourth-quarter GDP growth in the U.S. came in at 3.3% annualised, well above expectations of 2.0% growth.The ECB kept its key interest rates at current record highs of 4% at last weeks policy meeting and confirmed that it would keep monetary policy at restrictive levels for as long a necessary.US stocks closed the week up 1.1% as investors digested the implications of more positive economic growth and inflation data.An upside surprise in weekly jobless claims on Thursday helped balance out some of the strong economic readings, leaving the benchmark 10-year U.S.U.S. crude oil climbed nearly 7% for the week as the price reached $78 per barrel, the highest level in almost two months.Looking to the week ahead investors will be watching closely the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday and earnings results released by some of the US markets largest constituents, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Despite volatility increasing into the start of 2024, US equity markets pushed ahead to new record levels over the week, supported by a rally in technology and communication services.Chances of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in March fell sharply over the week, from 81% to 47%, according to futures markets data.UK inflation data surprised to the upside for the month of December with the annual rate ticking higher to 4.0% from 3.9% in November, the first increase in 10 months.US equity markets pushed to all time highs over the week, up 1.2%, with US technology adding 2.3%.Moving into the week ahead investors will be keeping a close eye on the release of fourth quarter US GDP growth and PCE inflation data released over the week.One area that is likely to support lower inflation data in the year ahead is that of shelter and rent.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com. 

On this week’s AHR Market review.Equity and bond markets posted positive returns over the week despite a higher than expected inflation reading from the US.The main focus of the week was the release of US CPI data, which showed an annual increase of 3.4% in December, slightly higher than the previous months reading of 3.1%.Over half of the overall increase in inflation was attributed to shelter costs.As earnings season in the US begins, banks kicked off, with three of the biggest institutions reporting that fourth-quarter net income fell relative to the same quarter a year earlier.In the US equity markets closed the week within touching distance of their all time highs, posting a 1.8% return and 3.1% for the US technology sector.Fixed income investors appeared unmoved by the modest upside surprises in the consumer inflation data, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling back below 4% over the week.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fuelled a modest rally in oil prices on Friday. U.S. crude was trading around $73 per barrel, up from a recent low of around $68 on December 12.That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.After a run of nine consecutive weeks of gains, the momentum of global equity markets was finally broken in the first week of 2024 as markets posted a weekly decline. Key employment data from the US during the week showed that the U.S. economy added 216,000 new jobs last month, exceeding most economists’ expectations and producing the biggest monthly gain in three months, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. A rotation within US equities was witnessed during the first week of trading in US markets, as areas such as utilities, energy and consumer staples outperformed. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed back above 4.00%, closing the week at 4.04% and snapping a string of three weekly declines, as positive economic data fuelled concerns that the U.S. In contrast to equities and bonds, oil prices ended the week up 3.2%, with WTI Crude at $73.91 per barrel. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review.Welcome to this week’s AHR market review for the week ending 17th December 2023.Equity markets continued their strong end to the year, spurred by the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts, as several indexes reach levels close to their all-time highs. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% for its third meeting in a row but indicated that it’s likely to shift soon to a more accommodative stance. While there was uncertainty ahead of the meeting around what the Fed's new set of economic projections would reveal, particularly around the path of interest rates, the Fed did not disappoint the markets. The European Central Bank and Bank of England followed suit and kept their rates on hold. In the UK, the central bank confirmed that rates would be elevated for an “extended period of time” to curb inflation. US equity markets climbed nearly 3% over the week on the revised expectations for interest rate cuts throughout 2024. The shifting interest rate outlook sparked a price rally in the bond market, sending yields lower. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. We will be taking a break from recording over the festive period, so thank you for listening this year and we look forward to keeping you informed again as we move into 2024.

On this week’s AHR Market review..Equity markets recorded another positive week as the strong end to the year continues, US equities recording their sixth straight week of gains and reaching their highest levels so far this year. The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to a four-month low of 3.7%.  Ratings agency Moody’s cut its outlook on China’s government debt from stable to negative citing concerns with an economic slowdown and property crisis.  Over the week US equities etched out a 0.2% gain, with US technology rising 0.7%. European equities advanced for a fourth consecutive week, ending 1.3% higher and UK equities added 0.3%. Japan’s stock markets lost ground over the week, falling 3.4%, as speculation about Bank of Japan policy normalization saw the yen strengthen against the U.S. dollar to its highest level in nearly four months.  The data on US job openings seemed to drive a continued decrease in long-term interest rates over much of the week, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S.  The price of U.S. crude oil slipped below $70 per barrel on Wednesday to the lowest level in more than five months.  That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review..Global equity markets continued their strong rally during the week in what was a holiday shortened week for US markets, as they observed Thanksgiving celebrations on Thursday. Business growth forecasts in the US suggested a larger than expected decline in activity for manufacturing firms whilst U.S. sales of existing homes in October fell almost 15% from the same month a year ago to the lowest total in 13 years. On the corporate front, with nearly all third-quarter results in as of Friday, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average earnings gain of 4.3% over the same quarter a year earlier, the first period of earnings growth since quarter three 2022. US equities posted gains of 1% for the week as growth stocks continued their outperformance of value equivalents. Strong demand at US Treasury auctions helped drive down the US 10 year Treasury yield to its lowest level in over 2 months at 4.37%, although yields widened before the week was out. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com. 

On this week’s AHR Market review..Markets were buoyed over the week by cooling inflation data from the US, boosting the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve may be at the end of their interest rate hiking programme. After a brief acceleration in late summer, US inflation resumed its downward trajectory in October. However, housing costs, which accounted for more than 70% of inflation last month, remain an issue having risen by 6.7% over the past year. UK inflation also slowed more sharply than expected to 4.6% in October, its lowest level since 2021, thanks to a retreat in energy prices. U.S. stock indexes climbed for the third week in a row as both broad US equities and US technology equities posted returns of more than 2%. The cooling inflation signals led to another drop in long-term US Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note touching around 4.40% on Friday, its lowest level since mid-September. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.

On this week’s AHR Market review..In a week where the USA’s credit outlook was lowered to negative, equity markets broadly finished the week higher led by growth stocks. As the majority of major earnings announcements for quarter three come to an end, data from LSEG states that of the 455 companies in the S&P to report earnings, 81% reported above analysts expectations, with earnings growth across the index expected to be 6.3% for the quarter.Over the week US Technology stocks added more than 2%, whilst broad US equities rose more than 1%, following some upside surprises for Q3 earnings from some of the indices big tech names. Shifts in the interest-rate outlook continued to drive fixed-income markets as U.S. government bond prices reversed course, retreating in the wake of a rally the previous week. Oil prices fell for the third week in a row to the lowest level since mid-July as mixed data on the global economy raised concerns about demand for oil. That’s all for this week’s AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com.