Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

This week Imogen Bachra, John Briggs and Joann Spadigam discuss market surprises, with strong inflation in the US, strong purchasing manager sentiment in Europe and a strong suggestion from the Bank of England's Huw Pill that UK rates may not fall before June. Aside from the immediate figures and updates, they discuss supply, long-term debt qualms and who's led by the Fed.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 25 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by John Briggs and Joann Spadigam to discuss bond market movements. With scant evidence of grand disinflation in the US, the panel ask whether the Fed may cut rates at all this year, and what the markets may price in. In the UK, what should we make of recent inflation data which contained upside surprises, while in Europe, how acceptable are Italian and French national debt levels? Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 18 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. N.B This was recorded on 11 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html  Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's expectations, and an April cut still seems unlikely.  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 4 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike. From Europe, we hear about what clients have to say.   Bondcast is away for Good Friday but will return on 5 April. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 21 March 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June.   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 14 March 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress.    Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 7 March 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figures from Europe.    Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 29 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France economic expectations. And how are retail issuances performing in Italy?   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 22 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework.      Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it's all about risk.     Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 8 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank's projections suggested, while German and Italian syndications caught many by surprise. Might Spain and Belgium be next?   Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 1 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

Join host Imogen Bachra, dovish Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the effect that central bank moves are having on bond markets. In Europe, markets seemed to have reacted strongly to a somewhat benign meeting at the European Central Bank, while in the US, all eyes are on the Fed's meeting next week. Could we see a substantial change in the policy statement? In the UK, meanwhile, all eyes are on how markets may respond to the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.  Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 25 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how recent jobs and inflation data is affecting markets. In the UK, slightly higher than expected inflation news spurred a sell-off in bonds, while in the US, there was some strong consumer news to contend with. It's been relatively quiet of late in Europe, but there is some speculation that the European Central Bank is becoming less dovish.       Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. NB: This was recorded on 18 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the back and forth of market moves and central bank motions over interest rates. In the US, how will Quantitative Tightening sit with rate cutting? They also discuss the fiscal situation ahead of a likely election in the UK, while in Europe the overall monetary picture is becoming more dovish, amid record levels of supply.         Remember to hit  'follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. NB: This was recorded on 11 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they examine how markets started 2024. In the US, the Fed is not giving out much new information of when interest rate cuts may begin, though it has released some more detailed notes on quantitative tightening and balance sheet rundown. In the UK, what's driving weakness in gilts, and may stickier core inflation still keep rates higher for longer? In the EU it's arguably a simpler picture, with markets poised for cuts from the European Central Bank.   Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 4 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) shocked few by collectively holding rates this week, but that doesn’t mean the meetings were without their surprises. Join host Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how markets reacted to the news, and identify signs of when rates may begin to fall.Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.NB: This was recorded on 14 December 2023For any terms used please refer to this glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease note that captions are automatically generated

...well, maybe not so great, but this week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss the market mood ahead of announcements by all three of the major central banks: the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. Elsewhere they talk about events in money market funds and the importance of the overnight rate. Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. NB: This was recorded on 6 December 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Join host Imogen Bachra and guests Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss signs that some central banks may cut their base rates sooner than expected. Could the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) do this as soon as March 2024? Faster falls in inflation in the US and the eurozone raise the possibility. But in the UK? Not so much.    Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 30 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Join host Imogen Bachra and guest Joann Spadigam as they discuss how customers have responded to our Year Ahead 2024 report, and analyse the contents of the Autumn Statement. Elsewhere they also look at supply data in the eurozone.  Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was recorded on 23 November 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html