DHUnplugged Podcast

DOD – Disrupter Disrupters China markets reopening after Lunar New Year Mexico Cartel Wars Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - The CTP for Caterpillar announced - DOD - Disrupter Disrupters - China markets reopening after Lunar New Year - Mexico Cartel Wars (Jalisco) Markets - Mortgage Rates - looking good! - Tariffs found illegal - that is not stopping anything - Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs - Monday's big drop and AI taking a bite out of stock prices Tariffs - First, who actually knows what is going on. 100% chaos - Supreme court ruled illegal (6-3) - 10% flat across all countries immediately added - Wait a day and make that 15% - FedEx seeks refund for illegal IEEPA tariffs imposed by Trump after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs exceeded authority - Numerous lawsuits expected for IEEPA tariff refunds - Apple has spent more than $3 billion on tariffs since President Donald Trump enacted his trade policies. What about that? (HOW TO FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE REFUND) --- Estimate that $175B tariffs have been collected alreay - A group of 22 U.S. Senate Democrats on Monday introduced legislation that would require President Donald Trump's administration to fully refund within 180 days all of the revenue, with interest, collected from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. - The legislation would require the Customs and Border Protection agency, which collects tariffs at U.S. ports of entry, to prioritize small businesses. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday Stop The Presses - After years of JCD's rants....... - Apple will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens - Apple Inc.'s initial touch Macs will have the Dynamic Island at the center top of the display and OLED screen technology. The new MacBook Pro models will have a refreshed, dynamic user interface that can shift between being optimized for touch or point-and-click input. Europe Reacts - "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal." - All active discussions are halted on any USA/Europe trade deal The Potential Winners - Brazil and China may be the winners here - Chinese President Xi Jinping has a boost in bargaining power after the US Supreme Court invalidated Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, a key point of leverage over China. - The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands. - Xi's team will likely push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, the removal of trade restrictions on Chinese companies, and reduced US support for self-ruled Taiwan, according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies. NVDA Earnings - NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Jan 2025) results tomorrow—another make-or-break moment for the AI trade. - The bar is sky-high after years of blowout beats, but whispers of "peak AI" and slowing growth momentum have investors on edge. --- Consensus Expectations : ----Revenue: ~$65.6–$66.1 billion (up ~67–68% YoY from last year's ~$39B; guided $65B ±2% in prior report) ------EPS (adjusted/non-GAAP): ~$1.50–$1.53 (up ~70–72% YoY from $0.89). --------Gross margins: Targeting ~75% non-GAAP (holding strong despite supply chain noise). -----------Key driver: Data Center segment expected to crush ~$58–$60B, fueled by Blackwell ramp and hyperscaler spend. Home Depot Earnings - The home-improvement retailer gained 2.7% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share on revenues of $38.20 billion. - That exceeded the per-share earnings of $2.54 on revenues of $38.12 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. AMD News - The semiconductor maker rose about 11% after it inked a multiyear deal with Meta to lend up to 6 gigawatts of its graphics processing units to artificial intelligence data centers. - The cost of the deal is unclear, but the companies’ agreement includes a a performance-based warrant that could amount to up to 160 million of AMD shares, according to a statement dated Tuesday. - Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD's Instinct GPUs (high-end graphics processing units optimized for AI workloads) to power its massive AI data centers. - Analysts estimate the GPU portion alone could be worth $60–$100+ billion over 5+ years Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily, matching its lowest levels since 2022. - Last year at this time the rate was 6.89%. - A buyer putting 20% down on the median priced home, about $400,000 according to the National Association of Realtors, would have a monthly payment of $1,916 for the principal and interest. One year ago, that payment would have been $2,105, a difference of $189. Life Insurance Record - Manulife Financial Corp. sold a $300 million life insurance policy in Singapore, topping what Guinness World Records certified as the most valuable policy ever issued. - The policy surpasses the previous record of $250 million, set by HSBC Life in Hong Kong in 2024. Manulife said in a statement Tuesday that the deal reflects growing demand from ultra-wealthy clients to preserve their assets. - In Singapore over the past 12 months, Manulife has issued 25 individual policies each worth more than $50 million. Bitcoin Rout - Gemini said it was axing as much as a quarter of its staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia entirely. - This week, it parted with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, all in a single day. - Its stock has fallen more than 80% from a post-listing high last year, collapsing its market value from a peak of almost $4 billion to under $700 million. Over the Greenland - USA sending a "hospital ship" over - Trump's post on the ship came hours after Denmark's Joint Arctic Command said it had evacuated a crew member who required urgent medical treatment from a U.S. submarine in Greenlandic waters, seven nautical miles outside of Greenland's capital, Nuuk. - Greenland said thanks but no thanks So Long! - U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive. - In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010 AI Disruption - DOD (Disruption of Disrupters) - CrowdStrike -9.8% and other cybersecurity names under heavy pressure again as AI disruption fears build following Anthropic’s Claude Code release - - Cybersecurity stocks are under broad pressure today, extending recent weakness following Friday's launch of Claude Code Security by Anthropic. Claude Code Security scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests software patches for human review, fueling a narrative that AI platforms may be moving more quickly into parts of the security workflow than investors had previously expected. For cybersecurity, that raises concern around the forward demand outlook and competitive positioning, particularly in areas tied to application security, cloud security, identity workflows, and security operations automation, where AI-native tools could start to narrow perceived differentiation. - The move suggests investors are still sorting through the implications for product overlap, pricing power, and competitive positioning as AI capabilities evolve quickly. - IBM shares dropping toward lows of the session; attributed to news that Claude can automate cobol modernization COBOL (Common Business-Oriented Language) is a high-level, English-like programming language created in 1959 for business, finance, and administrative data processing. It is renowned for its verbosity, readability, and reliability, processing massive amounts of transactions on mainframe systems,, notes NetCom Learning and IBM. Despite being decades old, it remains critical in banking, insurance, and government sectors. - It is estimated that 70-80% of the world's business transactions are processed by COBOL Grok's Prediction about Future of OpenAi/ChatGPT Scenario Likelihood (My Estimate) Key Factors Outcome for OpenAI/ChatGPT Thriving Leader Medium (40%) Sustained breakthroughs, partnerships (e.g., Microsoft), regulatory wins OpenAI as AI giant; ChatGPT as ecosystem hub for agents/robots Evolved Survivor High (50%) Adaptation to agents/hardware; mergers Exists but rebranded; ChatGPT integrated into daily life tools Decline/Acquisition Low (10%) Overcompetition, funding collapse Absorbed or legacy; ChatGPT commoditized or obsolete Quick check on Europe Shares - European company earnings growth is picking up this reporting season against a tentatively improving economic backdrop, but wary investors are demanding more than solid results to justify sky-high valuations. - Companies representing 57% of Europe's market capitalization have reported so far, achieving average earnings growth of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, ahead of estimates for a final result of a contraction of 1.1% --- That is a big differential.... +3.9 vs -1.1 Iran Talk

Self Created Valuation Boosts Apple Announces new Podcast push AI – A breakdown Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - A NEW CTP just announced - China releasing new AI models - AI - A breakdown - we are on overload - Big Employment news.... Markets - Self Created Valuation Boosts - Apple Announces new Podcast push - Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show.....  No Agenda... Olympics - Anything to discuss? MONEY FOR ALL - The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS. - The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night. - As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only. - This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation.. Emplyment - 4.3% - "Better" than expected payrolls number - A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods. - Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example: By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000. By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000. - Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000). - The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches. - In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year. AI Updates - While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist’s tools on software and financial services, China’s tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation. - Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models - However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge. - Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks. - Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google’s Gemini 3 Pro on some tests. - Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools. Grok Update - Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors. - U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia. - Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025) AI Market Share - ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period. AI Market Share InfoGrapic and AI Understanding - Have we gone through this? - At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems. - Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule. - Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer. Contrast with training (the "learning" phase): ------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples. ------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly. - gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help. "Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine. AI Infographic Last AI Item - A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse. - The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply. - The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector. Here is something: - Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years - Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago. - Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership." - Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution." - "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people’s lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more. - Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....? Apple Podcast Update - Big news! - Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring. - The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research. - The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting. -“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “ - By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we’re putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.” M&A - Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips. - Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. - The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement. Inflation - This helps - PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results. Miran - Moving - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed. - He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board No Biggie???? - There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room - JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FD

Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) Hang on – Wild ride here Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! Shakeup in Dietville PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) - Need a stock for CTP - Hang on - Wild ride here - Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - Shakeup in Dietville Markets - Massive moved during the week - - Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding - DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time - Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026 Superbowl and Superbowl ads - Game review - Any ad stick out? - $10M per ad this year - Half Time with Bad Bunny? - Anthropic busting on OpenAi Last Week! - Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names. - HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap AI Ripping Through - Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements - First it was the software companies - Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked - Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space Earnings Season Update - Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results. - Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line) - Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better) - Nothing great,  like Goldilocks Earnings Highlights - Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks). - AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages). - Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions. Recent Tech CAPEX announcements - Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services. - Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase). - Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025). ------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025. Market Reaction from all of this.... - Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood - Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure. - Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B) - BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc. Other Earnings of Interest -  Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines. - The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million. - Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program. - Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs While we are on the subject - Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever! - Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs Hats off to WalMart - Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever| - Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience. Google Bond Offering - Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years - Would you buy that? - The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK. - The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s Fat Profits in Dietville - Really interesting sequence of events happening... - Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month - Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill - Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch - Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises THEN.. - Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday) - FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law. AND.... - Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soars. - The pharmaceutical giant anticipates its 2026 revenue will come in between $80 billion and $83 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG. - Meanwhile, NOVO had a really bad outlook that took the shares down 13% after the report. Japan Markets Soar - Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported. - Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped past 57,000 for the first time before paring gains to close 3.9% higher at 56,363.94, while the Topix also notched a record high, closing at 3,783.94, up 2.3%. Employment Report? - Government shutdown is forcing them to postpone again (Which is dumb) - Number due this Wednesday - Maybe because of this:U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009. - At the same time, companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009, which is when Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking such data. - Also, job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, to their lowest since September 2020. - Available jobs are down by more than 900,000 just since October. - NO! Ai and advancements in tech have noting to do with this! NO NO NO M&A - Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips. - Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. - The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement. Inflation - This helps - PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results. Miran - Moving - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as cha

WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI  was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed S

Silver and Gold – Still Going. Big week for earnings. Fed decision on Wednesday. Nat Gas price exploding higher. US Dollar drops hard over past few days. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - What we learned from Davos - President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off - January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying - S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings Markets - Silver and Gold - Still Going - Big week for earnings - Fed decision on Wednesday - Nat Gas price exploding - US Dollar drops hard over past few days Can't Keep Track Anymore -Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year. - In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS". - South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February - KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news - S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments Davos - 2026 - What we learned - Not much - Same bifurcated view of the world - Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan" - So, no tariffs - (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....) Gold and Silver - Off to the races - Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day - Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move - GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust) - Gold above $5,000 per ounce - - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up| - USD weakness Economy - Still Strong - The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. - Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. - Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter. Amazon - Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan - First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder - CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues ---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point? - Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce - Company still has 1.5 million employees Comeback? - Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned. - Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked - Frontier tried - Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked Booz Cancelled - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times. - The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.” - Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement. - Why does Booz have tax records in the first place? - Stock down 50% since end of 2024 Private Credit - BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy - The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025. - This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter. - The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025. - Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33% Zoom Communications - Valuation of Anthropic stake - The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet. - From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln. - This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo. - Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth. UNH and Health Stocks - DOWN 20% today - The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026. - The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits. - UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers: - - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%. - - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%. Tech Earnings Microsoft (MSFT) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion - Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth - Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion - Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth - Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy. Tesla (TSLA) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion - Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago - Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand. - Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap. Apple (AAPL) Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close) Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth - This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability. Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter. Company Ticker Report Date Est. EPS Key Focus Area Microsoft MSFT Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $3.92 Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending Meta Platforms META Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $8.17 Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance Tesla TSLA Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.45 Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates Apple AAPL Thu, Jan 29 (AMC) Varies iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout ServiceNow NOW Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.88 Enterprise AI software adoption rates IBM IBM Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $4.28 Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance *AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates) Boeing - The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting. - Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same per

Here we go again – Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs DAVOS – Elitists are Meeting Suicide Coaches? Hedge funds – finally a good year! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs - DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting - Suicide Coaches? - Hedge funds - finally a good year! Markets - Silver and Gold - ATH - Selling off after Greenland threat - Netflix - Saga continues Davos - 2026 - Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists) - Many watch for their key points and do the opposite - Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not - Why is Zelensky going? - Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump - Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair. - The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc) World Economic Forum Report (Davos) - Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year - Rising Inflation - Economic Downturn - Asset Bubbles - High debt burdens - Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list WEF List NEXT - Greenland - Sell or Else! - Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through - The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said. - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland - Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland - Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats - 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron) Oh - and Gaza - The new Board of Peace - Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan - Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. - Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board. - Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict... Saks - bankrupt - Chapter 11 - Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus) - Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. - Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024,  a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.” - Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn’t heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. - Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon’s website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.| - Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.” Suicide Coaches - “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. - In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They’re addictive, they’re not good for you.” - “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you’re kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.” China - China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018 - Dec new yuan loans beat forecast - PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing - "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy." - Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets. - Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally. - - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold. - - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one. --- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators’ efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets. More China - China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year. - After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births - Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949 - Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers. Bank Earnings - Generally pretty good! - Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening - Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc. - Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses. - Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management. Fed Chair - Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore) - Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners - Who ever kisses the most ass should win - Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed - Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign) Netflix/Warner Brothers Update - Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD’s streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio. - In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance - The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD - NFLX Earnings ..... --- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated ------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated - Stock down AH Inflation (Did we talk about this?) - Even though we are told there is little inflation... - Consumer Price Index increases 0.3% in December - Food, rents were the main drivers of consumer inflation - Underlying inflation rises a moderate 0.2% - Food prices surged 0.7% Planes! - Boeing outsold Airbus last year - First time since 2018 - BA stock made an ATH last week Bond Vigilantes - Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys over finance concerns tied to America’s budget shortfall. - The move comes amid increasing tensions with the U.S. over Greenland as President Donald Trump pushes for control of the island. - AkademikerPension said it plans to have closed its position of around $100 million in U.S. Treasurys by the end of the month. - 10 YR yields moved up again to 4.3% - What if.....??? (Mutual assured destruction?) Hedgies - Hedge fund investors posted gains of about 12.6% last year, the best returns since 2009, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. - Funds run by industry giants such as D.E. Shaw & Co. and Millennium Management posted double-digit returns, with Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund scoring a 34% gain. - Hedge funds secured net inflows of $71 billion during the first three quarters of last year, a major reversal after a decade of outflows, with the industry's giants being among the major beneficiaries.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia – USA is the world’s Cop again? More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie – all in week’s work.. Retail investors in control – don’t care about the noise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia - USA is the world's Cop again? - More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie - all in week's work.. - Retail investors in control - don't care about the noise Markets - DJIA plowing ahead - NASDAQ on fire - what can stop this? - Nuclear stocks back in play - Defense names on the move - Interesting economic news. FIRST - President Donald Trump said drug “cartels are running Mexico,” and suggested the U.S. military could start land strikes against them there. - The comments come on the heels of suggestions that Trump could take military action in Cuba and Colombia, and to annex Greenland. - The Trump administration has reportedly carried out 35 known strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, killing 115 individuals. - I will be going to Mexico later this week for a couple of days..... Retail Ruling - Retail traders have extended a buying spree into the new year, following a record-setting performance in 2025, with purchases in the first four trading days of January hitting the second-highest level in almost eight months. - Individual investors have bought about $10.1 billion of US equities since the start of the year, mainly via exchange-traded funds, far exceeding the 12-month weekly average. - Retail investors' confidence has helped stabilize markets during recent pullbacks, and if they keep snapping up equities, gains in the US stock market are likely to persist, according to analysts. Employment Report - 4.4% Unemployment Rate - Nonfarm Payroll Employment: U.S. employers added +50,000 jobs in December 2025. This came in below economists' expectations (consensus around 60,000–73,000) and was a slowdown from the downwardly revised +56,000 in November. - Unemployment Rate: Edged down slightly to 4.4% (from a revised 4.5% in November), contrary to forecasts of 4.5%. The number of unemployed people remained around 7.5 million, showing little change. - Full-Year 2025 Performance: Total payroll growth for the year was just +584,000 jobs (average monthly gain of +49,000), marking one of the weakest years for hiring since 2020 (impacted by the pandemic). This is a sharp drop from +2.0 million added in 2024 (average +168,000 monthly). -Revisions to Prior Months: -- October 2025: Revised down to -173,000 (from -105,000, reflecting federal government buyouts and shutdown effects). -- November 2025: Revised down by 8,000 to +56,000. -- Combined October–November: 76,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. GDP - HOT - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voting FOMC member) on CNBC says it is very surprising how strong GDP growth is; says labor market is clearly cooling; says inflation still too high; has confidence housing inflation will trend down - Q3 at +3.8% and Atlanta GDP NOW is predicting that Q4 will come in at +5.1% More Eco - Productivity (Prelim Q3): 4.9% vs. 2.5% consensus - Productivity measures output per hour worked. A jump to 4.9% (almost double the consensus) suggests businesses are producing much more per labor hour than expected. Prior was revised up to 4.1% from 3.3%, so the trend is strengthening. WOW! Unit Labor Costs (Prelim Q3): -1.9% vs. +0.8% consensus - Unit labor costs measure labor cost per unit of output. A negative number means costs per unit are falling. Prior revised to -2.9% from +1.0%, so costs have been dropping sharply. -Could be due to technology adoption, automation, or efficiency improvements. Post-pandemic restructuring and leaner operations may have boosted output without adding labor. OOOOOOOPS - White House official says Truth Social disclosure of December jobs report was an "inadvertent release"; says White House will review protocols - CNBC  What next? - President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details. - Trump wrote on social media that the American Public will no longer be "ripped off" by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more. - Maybe because of this: Hours before his message on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, said on X: “Trump promised to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and stop Wall Street from getting away with murder. Instead, he deregulated big banks charging up to 30% interest on credit cards.” - BUT! Credit card companies will not be forced to issue credit - right? It will hurt people that need credit for business, personal or other needs. Then there was this: - Mortgage rates fell sharply on Friday, a day after President Donald Trump said on social media that he is instructing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. - “This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he said in the Truth Social post. - Still not clear where the money will come from and hot this actually works with the current structure of Fannie and Freddie - Talk of Fannie/Freddie IPO? --- Both are still still in conservatorship and book value per share still negative - SO WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM? OHHHHH - How about this - 4PM browbeating for the Defense companies - RTX was in the hotseat (as were others) taking the wrath of Pres Trump saying that they were basically fat and happy and ripping off the taxpayer - No more dividends and no more buybacks was the call - Stocks dropped 5% into the close and then more after - 30 minutes later - conversation changed and the idea of a move from $1T in spending for the defense budget should move to $1.5T in 2027. ----- Where does that money come from? - Stocks JUMPED! Can't Ignore this - Trump suggesting that Corporations and institutional investors cannot buy single family homes - “People live in homes, not corporations,” he said. - The argument is that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans. - It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. - Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%. Then there is this... - DOJ putting he screws to Powell - The Trump administration has ramped up its pressure campaign on the U.S. central bank, threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments he made to Congress about a building renovation project, prompting the Fed chief to call the move a "pretext" to gain more influence over the ?setting of interest rates. - The latest development in a long-running effort by U.S. President Donald Trump to push the Fed to dramatically lower rates had immediate fallout in Washington and on global markets. - Powell came out with a video over the weekend. - Initially futures were down <1% - market opened all all ok... With all of that.... - What are we not seeing any news about? - EPSTEIN FILES Nuclear back in Front - Meta Platforms Inc. is set to become one of the world’s biggest corporate buyers of nuclear power, striking a series of deals to purchase electricity from existing plants and support new reactor projects. - The agreements could end up totaling more than 6 gigawatts — that’s enough to power a city of about 5 million homes. The deals include purchasing electricity from three existing Vistra Corp. plants and support several small reactors that Sam Altman-backed Oklo Inc. and Bill Gates-backed TerraPower LLC are planning to build over the next decade. - Still most of these SMR companies are speculative at best as they have not actually powered anything and have no revenue - YET. Greenland - Where are we on this? - Bribe the Greenlanders? - Military action? - Buy from Denmark? xAI News - Grok - seems to be coming along - been using it more lately - XAI reported a net loss of $1.46 billion for the September quarter, up from $1 billion in the first quarter, according to internal documents. - The company spent $7.8 billion in cash in the first nine months of the year, and its goal is to build AI that is self-sufficient and will eventually power humanoid robots like Optimus. - XAI revenue nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $107 million for the three month period ended Sept. 30, 2025, according to financial documents shared with investors and reviewed by Bloomberg. - From Grok: Worth $230 BILLION after the last money raise of $20 BILLION - Also from Grok; Real value is probably around $40-$80 billion is valued on fundamentals  - the market of $230 Billion is moonshot hype. GM Next -  GM's $6 billion charge linked to EV investment reduction - Most of the writedown tied to supplier payouts for canceled work - GM is latest automaker to walk back EV plans after federal policy changes - - This is a bad way to do business - Governmenet policy changes quickly Apple and Google - Apple is teaming up with Google to use Gemini models for an AI-powered Siri - Reports swirled in August that Apple was in early talks the search giant to use a custom Gemini model to power a new iteration of Siri. - Apple has mostly stood on the sidelines of the AI frenzy that’s swept up Wall Street since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. - Google now market cap > $4T - - Sooooooo Apple is not going to come up wi

LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? Upgrades all around the AI trade again… January Effect Defense and Oil Related – Let’s Go! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - CTP Cup - We have a winner! - Kitchen Cabinets rejoice! - Buffett is retired (kind of) - ALL TIME HIGHS - DJIA Leading so far in 2026 Markets - LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? - Upgrades all around the AI trade again... - January Effect - Defense and Oil Related! - Calling BS on Venezuela economic plans Doctor Copper - Copper surpassed $13,000 a ton for the first time due to a renewed rush to ship metal to the US. - The rally has been underpinned by the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Donald Trump, causing US copper prices to trade at a premium to those on the London Metal Exchange. - The market has been driven by uncertainty over future US tariff policy, with analysts warning that the rest of the world could run short of copper due to low inventories outside the US. - Huge inventory build due to uncertainty Copper Chart Following up on that...Some Questions - Isn't the massive inventory build we are seeing due to uncertainly? - Lots bought before tariffs went into effect - then tariffs reduced... - Will there be a hangover from a the pull-forward like we have seen in the past? Best markets for 2025 Colombia: +80% South Korea (KOSPI): +76% Ghana: +79% Brazil (Bovespa): +34% Japan (Nikkei 225): +26% Europe STOXX 600: +19% China (Shanghai Composite): +18% U.S. S&P 500: +17% U.S. Nasdaq: +21% U.S. Dow Jones: +12% US Dollar - Basket USD is at 8 year LOW - Yen at key intervention level (again) - NO MANIPULATION HERE! -- -- Gold/Silver betting trend continues... - What happened to -> "a strong USD is in the best interests of the USA"? Monday Markets - For no apparent reason....(could it be the Venezuela news???) - Markets JUMPED - Oil and Defense stocks moved! - DJIA up ~ 600 Points ---These stocks were about 500 points of the 600: - GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc - CAT Caterpillar Inc - JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co - CVX Chevron Corp - V Visa Inc ---- GS is 1/2 the DJIA gains for 2026 Here we go... - Elon Musk's Grok is generating sexualized images of women and minors - users are taking pictures of others and telling Grok to "remove their clothes" or "put them in a thong bikini" - review of public requests sent to Grok over a single 10-minute-long period at midday U.S. Eastern Time last Friday tallied 102 attempts by X users to use Grok to digitally edit photographs of people so that they would appear to be wearing bikinis. - Politicians in France ask prosecutors to investigate; India demands answers - Experts have long warned Grok owner xAI about potential misuses of AI-generated content - Ministers in France have reported X to prosecutors and regulators over the disturbing images, saying in a statement on Friday the "sexual and sexist" content was "manifestly illegal." India's IT ministry said in a letter to X's local unit that the platform failed to prevent Grok's misuse by generating and circulating obscene and sexually explicit content. - Guardrails not very tight along the track - Surprised? TESLA - Sales awful - Stock holdingup - BYD Co. outsold Tesla Inc. in Europe’s two largest electric-vehicle markets last year as the Chinese automaker continues its global expansion. - BYD registered more than twice as many new vehicles in December as Tesla did in Germany, and outperformed Tesla in the UK with 51,422 registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513. - BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million, and has made strong inroads in the UK where Chinese brands have been attracting consumers with cheaper sticker prices. - NVDA announced it is expanding autonomous driving sector INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   Silver and Gold - As we predicted - Gold and silver prices fell Wednesday after exchange operator CME Group again hiked the margins on precious metal futures. - CME Group said in a statement Tuesday that the decision was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.” - That caused some to sell positions to bring margin requirement in check - - Should be temporary until metals find their margin equilibrium Bitcoin - Starting the year off right - Up 7% in 2026 after a very poor 2025 - Crypto moving as well - Safe haven trade, catch up trade or who-knows-what-the-hell trade? January Effect - The January Effect is a market phenomenon where stock prices—especially small-cap stocks—tend to rise more in January than in other months. - Tax-loss selling in December: Investors often sell losing positions at year-end to offset capital gains for tax purposes. - Reinvestment in January: After the new year, they buy back stocks, creating upward pressure. - Bonus and cash inflows: Year-end bonuses and new investment allocations often hit the market in January. - Small-caps up almost 3% YTD Impressive - Investors fortunate enough to own Berkshire since 1965, when Buffett took over, realized a return of about 6,100,000%, far above the S&P 500's approximately 46,000% return including dividends. - Buffett is now officially retired - said to be one (or the) greatest investors of our time - Buffett, 95, will remain chairman and plans to keep going every day to Berkshire's office in Omaha, Nebraska, about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of his home, and help Abel. - They still have not completely figured out who will run the equity portfolio after Todd Combs left to join JPM Kitchen Cabinet Relief - Steep tariffs on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities have been delayed by the Trump administration. - It’s the latest roller coaster of Trump's tariff wars since he returned to office last year. - The administration is also scaling back on a steep tariff proposed on Italian pasta that would have put the rate at 107%. Let's talk Venezuela - The idea that the US is just going to come in an turn everything rosy is dumb - overly simplistic thesis --- Sets up a bad global potential for overthrowing governments - where does it stop - The idea that US companies are going to go in there and drill and US is going to reimburse for costs? --- The country is allied with Russia and China - not US (at this time) - This is reminiscent of when we opened the doors to Cuba - we opened it up and no one benefited. Maybe this time will be different. - BUT Venezuela owns the largest proven oil reserves in the world, holding approximately 303 billion barrels as of the end of 2024, which is nearly 18–19% of global reserves. So, that is something. VZ Oil Production Drug Price Hikes - Drugmakers plan to raise U.S. prices on at least 350 branded medications including vaccines against COVID, RSV and shingles and blockbuster cancer treatment Ibrance, even as the Trump administration pressures them for cuts - The number of price increases for 2026 is up from the same point last year, when drugmakers unveiled plans for raises on more than 250 drugs. The median of this year's price hikes is around 4% - in line with 2025. -Drugmakers also plan to cut the list prices on around nine drugs. That includes a more than 40% cut for Boehringer Ingelheim's diabetes drug Jardiance and three related treatments. Greenland - What are the odds????? (Prediction Markets are on it! https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=791099793%7C20290101%7C0%7C&detail=contract_details) - “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” In Closing - The "AI NOT LESS PEOPLE WORKING" - Scam - “I would say that we’re actually not hiring fewer people,” AMDs Lisa Su told CNBC’s Jon Fortt on Tuesday from the CES conference in Las Vegas. “Frankly, we’re growing very significantly as a company, so we actually are hiring lots of people, but we’re hiring different people. We’re hiring people who are AI forward.” Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Looking at a weird GDP data point. Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks. Gold and Silver – WOW! Closing out the year – a good one too! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - Lots to be excited about and anxious too - Looking at a weird GDP data point - Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks Markets - Gold and Silver - WOW! - Closing out the year - a good one too! - Buyers are still hot to buy any dip - "Diet" pills coming Bitters Making Progress  - Chocolate -Dark Cherry -Infusions - https://highdesertbotanicals.com NYE Celebration - Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects: - Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp. - Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs. - Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato. - Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside! - In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month - Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck. What a year! - So many themes in 12 months - AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization - Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems. - Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30% - 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names) Top New Year's Resolutions - Exercise More - Eat Healthier - Save More Money/Get Out of Debt - Be Happy/Improve Mental Health - Lose Weight - Spend More Time with Family & Friends - Learn a New Skill/Hobby - Get Organized Active Management (Funds) - Same report annually - A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade. - Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion. - The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007. - BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management ---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning --- Efficient markets, boots on the ground Fat Pill - The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. - Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month. - The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill. - Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January PowerBall - A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas. - The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday. - The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19 - Odds: one in 292.2 million. Silver - Amazing year! - Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower| - Down 7% on Monday - Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day - Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering.... ----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but..... SoKo Breach - South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month. - That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit - $34 per user NVDA Deal - Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday. - Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny. - Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report. - Groq will remain an independent company (?) GDP Consumption - Something is a bit off.... - With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure Q3 GDP Surge Russia/Ukraine - Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace - Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence - Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore? - Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards! - - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits? - While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts) Oil - Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD - Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand) - Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc - What will it take to move up? Best Auto Stock for 2025? - GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009 - Ford up 35% - Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year) - - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now? --- Would she ever say shares are overvalued? More fun stats - A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year - Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops. Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources - ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation) - Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland. - By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France. Over to Iran - President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again --- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations??? - - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg Fed News - Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35% - President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence Odd - Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting. - The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. - Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier. - These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY? End of Year Stat - The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending. - The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department. - That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily - ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes - Each person in US owes approx $128,000   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison’s personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery’s board had expressed about Paramount’s original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won’t back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok’s US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month’s inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells’ pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles’ behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump’s executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon’s Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal’s recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSES

SpaceX IPO coming – huge increase in valuation over past 3 months Happy Hanukah – Eight Crazy Nights Now Kevin AND Kevin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Chance for CTP Cup 2025 participants - Happy Hanukah - Eight Crazy Nights - Sad News - Rob Reiner - Fed decision is out.... - Overdue eco reports coming this week Markets - Oracle still problematic - SpaceX IPO coming - huge increase in valuation over past 3 months - Another Bankruptcy - cleaning up is not good business - Oh my - Now Kevin AND Kevin - Weight loss game continues - One thing saved for last - a doozie... Tesla -  - All time High - Prospect of Robotaxi - Even though sales hitting multi-year lows Wall Street Never Sleeps? - Nasdaq files to extend trading to 23 hours on weekdays - Banks concerned about investor protections, costs, liquidity, volatility risks of nonstop trading - Proponents argue round-the-clock trading benefits global investors - That may create some additional volatility potential SpaceX - SpaceX aims for a potential $1.5 trillion market cap with an Initial Public Offering in 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history - July 2025 tender valuation was $400B - Dec 14th (4 months later) $800B - Starlink is the primary money winner of this deal - Tesla shares climbing even with nothing behind it - seemingly in sympathy for this IPO ---- TESLA does not have ownership of SpaceX - OH - this could be the reason....U.S. deliveries dropped significantly in November—the lowest since early 2022—but this weakness has been overshadowed by the enthusiasm for autonomy. Rob Reiner - A son of legendary Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife, producer Michele Singer Reiner, Nick Reiner, is being held on suspicion of murder following their deaths, according to Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell. He’s being held on $4 million bail. - Citing law enforcement sources and family friends, ABC News reported on Monday that Nick Reiner had recently returned to live at his parents' South Chadbourne Avenue home. The move was described as a temporary arrangement intended to help him stabilize. - Not going to discuss the Truth Social post about this tragedy HEADLINE ALERT - "Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues" - Copper has gone from 5.77 to 5.30 (July to today) - 6 Tops at this price since 2011 - Not seeing this as per the headline - seems like a Hunt Brothers special from the 1980s - CORNERING THE MARKET ---1980 - Silver went from $11 to $50 then crashed, bankrupting the Hunt Bros - after COMEX changed rules forcing them to cover positions Bankruptcy - After 35 years, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum filed for bankruptcy protection late Sunday night. Following warnings issued earlier this year that it was fast running out of options, iRobot says it is entering Chapter 11 protection and will be acquired by its contract manufacturer, China-based Picea Robotics. - The company says it will continue to operate “with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.” - Remember that Amazon  - The Amazon buyout of iRobot, maker of Roomba, was announced in 2022 for $1.7 billion but ultimately failed in January 2024 due to significant regulatory pushback, primarily from the EU, over anti-competitive concerns. -- Amazon walked away with a $94 million termination fee Fed Pick - President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of his list as the next Federal Reserve chair, though Kevin Hassett also remains in contention, according to the Wall Street Journal. - Interesting that this comes days after Hassett said that we would not let outside suggestions influence his voting - ---In addition to putting heavier weight on Warsh getting the job, Trump repeated an assertion he has made in the past that the Fed chair ought to consult the president about interest rate decisions. - Also of interest, prediction markets had Hassett at 95% probability - now it moved to 50% - big payday for people in the know. Housing Prices - Average home price is DOWN on  year-over-year basis - First time on national level since 2024 - Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher --- Houses are on market longer - - Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%. More Hosing Related -  Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search. - Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Overdue Eco  - Black Hole - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday releases its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November, but a number of key details will be missing after the government shutdown prevented data collection, including October's unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series since inception in 1948. - NICE JOB GANG! - Some of the data will be estimated. - It said it would not publish the headline CPI number or the so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, for October. "BLS cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations," the agency said. Some Updates - Some info coming in are estimates - some delayed - Unemployment at 4.6% - Latest report shows +64,000 added - ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing - both slowed over the last month The Fed - Meanwhile the Fed cuts rates.... - A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. - The FOMC’s “dot plot” indicated just one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, amid considerable disagreement from members about where rates should head. - In addition to the rate decision, the Fed also announced it will resume buying Treasury securities. The central bank will start by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills, beginning Friday. - Markets were all over the place on this as it was a little confusing at first - then it seemed that everyone loved (for one day) - Why is the Fed moving up Treasury purchases to "immediately" from a few months from now? - AND - dissension ! A larger group  that usual of regional Fed bank presidents signaled they opposed the cut, and six policymakers said the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, suggesting they opposed the move. - Long bonds have not moved at all on this news. Costco Earnings - Costco beat Wall Street’s fiscal first-quarter sales and revenue expectations. - Sales rose 8.2% and digital sales jumped 20.5% compared with the year-ago quarter. - Costco surpassed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations and posted year-over-year sales growth of 8.2% as the retailer attracted more digital sales and opened new locations. - Earnings per share: $4.50 vs. $4.27 expected - Revenue: $67.31 billion vs. $67.14 billion expected - Costco does not provide year ahead guidance - Shares down from a recent high of $855 Costco Fun Facts - About 4.5 million pies were sold in the three days before Thanksgiving, which is equivalent to roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse. -  These were bakery pies (e.g., pumpkin, apple), - Costco had more than $250 million in non-food online orders on Black Friday, a record for Costco’s U.S. e-commerce business. - Approximately 358,000 whole pizzas were served at Costco's U.S. food courts, a 31% jump from last year. (500 pizza's per store) Fat No More - Retatrutide - Eli Lilly said its next-generation obesity drug delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss seen so far in a late-stage trial and reduced knee arthritis pain, clearing the first of several upcoming studies on the weekly injection. - In a 48-week Phase 2 study, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 24% of their body weight. - Recent Phase 3 results showed patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks. - The trials also showed improvements in related health conditions, including knee osteoarthritis pain, blood pressure, and liver fat - This triple action is what makes retatrutide potentially more effective for weight loss than existing medications like Zepbound (tirzepatide), which targets two receptors, or Wegovy (semaglutide), which targets only one. Paypal - PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system. - The payments-focused firm submitted applications to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions to form a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, PayPal said in a statement Monday. - If approved, PayPal Bank would help the firm bolster its small-business lending capabilities, according to the statement, which said the company has provided access to more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. Ford - Management Confused - Instead of planning to make enough electric vehicles to account for 40 percent of global sales by 2030—as it pledged just four years ago—Ford says it will focus on a broader range of hybrids, extended-range electrics, and battery-electric models, which executives now say will account for 50 percent of sales by the end of the decade. - The automaker will make

We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia’s H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it’s reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit  - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH -  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG  - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat’s announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Winner of the CTP Cup for IBIT Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman’s declaration PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Winner of the CTP for IBIT - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 - Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman's panic - Here come the Tariff lawsuits - - Smart Toilets are a thing (And learning the Bristol Scale) Markets - Horses can smell the barn.... Seasonal Trends - PR Teams - full throttle - (This is their Social Media) - Tax planning over the next couple of weeks may see some selling into year end Impressive Results - India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 8.2% in the quarter ended September against a forecast of 7.3% in a Reuters poll and 7.8% expansion in the previous quarter, data released last Friday showed. - The Indian government has cut consumer taxes on hundreds of items and implemented long-delayed labour reforms in the last three months as it tries to keep the domestic economy strong in the face of global uncertainties. - Strongest in 6 quarters - Economists said stockpiling for the festive season as well as expedited exports ahead of the 50% tariff deadline on August 27 might have contributed to the quarterly growth figures. - Manufacturing output rose 9.1% in the quarter ending in September from a year earlier against growth of 7.7% a quarter ago, while construction expanded 7.2% year-on-year from 7.6% a quarter ago. NVDA Spreading Out - Nvidia on Monday announced it has purchased $2 billion of Synopsys common stock as part of a strategic partnership to accelerate computing and artificial intelligence engineering solutions. - As part of the multiyear partnership, Nvidia will help Synopsys accelerate its portfolio of compute-intensive applications, advance agentic AI engineering, expand cloud access and develop joint go-to-market initiatives, according to a release. - Nvidia said it purchased Synopsys’ stock at $414.79 per share (Now at $445) Amazon Ultra Fast Service - The parent company of Instacart fell nearly 4% after Amazon said it’s testing “ultra-fast” delivery of groceries in Seattle and Philadelphia. - These deliveries take about 30 minutes or less, said Amazon. - Doordash and other delivery companies stocks also fell. Microstrategy - Strategy - Stock has been under pressure - Who knows what the company actully does anymore - Leverage Bitcoin play - issuing massive debt and convertibles to but Bitcoin - Stock down 39% this year and 52% 1 -year (Up 400% in the last 5 years) -Bitcoin dropped below $87k this week before staging a recovery bounce. Devil's Metal - Silver has outpaced gold in 2025, with a growth of about 71%, compared to gold’s 54%. - Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion and infrastructure challenges. - While industrial demand for silver is expected to decline slightly in 2025, the metal is increasingly used in electric vehicles, for AI components and in photovoltaics. - Some people are saying that people were having to transport silver by plane rather than on cargo ships to meet delivery demand INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Some Trump Updates: - Reiterates his view that Chair Powell should reduce rates. - Says he's negotiating with Democrats on healthcare. - Plans to give refunds out of collected tariffs. Crying Game - SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son on Monday downplayed the decision to offload the conglomerate’s entire Nvidia stake, saying he “was crying” over parting with the shares. - Speaking at a forum in Tokyo Monday, Son addressed SoftBank’s November disclosure that the firm had sold its holding in the American chip darling for $5.83 billion. - According to Son, SoftBank wouldn’t have made the move if it didn’t need to bankroll its next artificial intelligence investments, including a big bet on OpenAI and data center projects. Are Stocks Overvalued? CAPE RATIO Consumers... Consumer Confidence CODE RED -  Chief executive Sam Altman reportedly declared a “code red” on Monday, urging staff to improve its flagship product ChatGPT, an indicator that the startup’s once-unassailable lead is eroding as competitors like Google and Anthropic close in. - In the memo, reported by the Wall Street Journal and The Information, Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT. This includes core features like greater speed and reliability, better personalization, and the ability to answer more questions, he said. - Herein lies the problem with this entire tech market - what if ChatGPT fades to the sideline with $1.5Trillion promised over the next 5-7 years? - Remember, Google declared a Code Red after the arrival of ChatGPT. AI Takeover - Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care and professional services. - The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. - The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy. Costco Sues - Costco filed a lawsuit asking for a full refund of tariffs the warehouse club giant has paid since President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs earlier this year. - Costco sued the Trump administration to get a full refund of new tariffs it paid so far this year, and to block those import duties from continuing to be collected from the retail warehouse club giant as a Supreme Court case plays out. - Costco is worried that it would lose the money even if the Tariffs were deemed illegal. Fat Cutting -  Eli Lilly said it is lowering the cash prices of single-dose vials of its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound on its direct-to-consumer platform, LillyDirect. - Starting Dec. 1, cash-paying patients with a valid prescription can pay $299 to $449 per month for Zepbound vials on LillyDirect, depending on the dose, down from a previous range of $349 to $499 per month. - The announcement comes just weeks after President Donald Trump inked deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to make their GLP-1 drugs easier for Americans to access and afford. Smart Toilets - This year industry giants Toto Ltd. and Kohler Co. introduced smart toilets capable of analyzing what is in the bowl - Launched in August, the latest model in the Neorest line starts at roughly $3,200. - It uses an LED light and a sensor to read the shape, color, hardness and volume of stool as it drops, and sends data to a smartphone app in less than a minute. - Each toilet can support as many as six users — enough for most households — while some companies have bought multiple units for their employees. Toto aims to sell 7,300 units annually by 2028. - For now the stool-scanning Neorest is available only in Japan. - The app analyzes bowel movements against the Bristol scale, which is commonly used to diagnose constipation, inflammation or diarrhea, and offers simple recommendations such as eating more fiber and drinking more water, or even menu suggestions, like vegetable soup. Bristol Scale Feel Good - Entrepreneur Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, will deposit $250 in the individual investment accounts of 25 million American children in a $6.25 billion philanthropic pledge as part of the Trump administration's Invest America initiative. - $250 each child born after between 2015 and 2025 - The money will go to the accounts of children who live in ZIP codes where the median family's income is $150,000 or less, according to a spokesperson for the Dells. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Here is the list of players: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Rough Week – does not phase bulls! Bitcoin – Bottoming? Let’s take a look at Walmart and Target again Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm) - Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk - Recession News - Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again - Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? Markets - Rough Week - does not phase bulls! - Bitcoin - Bottoming? - NVDA - China Bound? - NASDAQ Weighting Inflation - Still Up There - They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?) - All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish. Meanwhile - President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. - oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers. Quantum Stocks GOOD NEWS! - NO Recession risk! - Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs - Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown - Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can - Banking and insurance,  Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting) Rigging it - NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg Weird News - Buried in the NVDA earnings report - Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI. - Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI. - Soooooo - is this all hot air???? More NVDA - Here we go. Another reversal - President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. - The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. ------ Read that again - money versus national security - Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies. Chip in question: H200 - Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us) EVEN MORE - NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" | - The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing..... HPQ Earnings - HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts - Stock down 6% Amazon - The Spend keeps going... - Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities. - Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday. Google/Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple - Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and... - Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology. - Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year. - Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know? NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable? - Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting - SP500 top 10 stocks = 38% - This is not a diversified approach any longer - Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data Something They Don't Want You To Know - “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023 - With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter. - “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters. Novo Nordisk - Pummeled - Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal. - The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease. -While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%. - Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left... Bitcoin - Live by the sword.... - iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ - Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse - Selling started - coincidentally with  the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance Remember DOGE - DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026 - Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration - Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked - DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work. Walmart - Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes. - The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%. - It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62. - Stock went vertical ---- - Much different story than Target - WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37% Beef Prices - Not Going Down - Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal. - The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.| - Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment. Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures. - The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts. - Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent - Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus Larry Summers? - Epstein Files - IS there any There , There? Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage? - Such a bad idea  - and these boneheads think it is smart - 30-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,610.46 Total Payment: $579,767.35 Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35 - 50-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,362.42 Total Payment: $817,449.78 Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78 Thanksgiving Costs 2025 National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey) - 2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person) - 2024: $58.08 for the same meal - Change: Down 5% year-over-year This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022. Key Drivers Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Sides are mixed: Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%). Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%). Regional Differences South: $50.01 (most affordable) West: $61.75 (most expensive) Classic Meal for 10 ($55???????) 16-pound turkey (frozen, whole) Stuffing mix (14 ounces) Sweet potatoes (3 pounds) Rolls (12-count package) Peas (1 pound) Cranberries (12 ounces) Carrots and celery (for a veggie tray) Pumpkin pi

Tariff juggling – just moving them around – no studies, no rationale Big Moves – One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short – End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release  Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A  3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. - Prices are going up in some of the areas that have big data warehouses are climbing faster -Prices, for example, surged by 13% in Virginia, 16% in Illinois and 12% in Ohio. - Did some research - Global data cen

NEW CTP for IBIT Under/Over – Looks like the OVER Presidential PARDONS and A King’s EVICTION All Excited – Making headway on the Deficit ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - NEW CTP for IBIT - Under/Over - Looks like the OVER - Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION - All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit ! Markets - DJIA hits new ATH - after big moves last week - Buyers stepped in (again) - NASDAQ - lagging as AI trade is questioned - THEREFORE - what is happening is a simple rotation again - ALL IN! Just back from a wedding in NJ - Did some Apple picking, hot cider and donuts! Pardon Me... - President Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of his political allies for their support or involvement in plans to overturn the 2020 presidential election, according to the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney, Ed Martin. - Several others (20+) were pardoned as well including some that plead guilty. Over the Pond - King Charles III on Thursday stripped his disgraced brother Prince Andrew of his remaining titles and evicted him from his royal residence after weeks of pressure to act over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Buckingham Palace said. - After the king’s rare move, which follows years of shameful scandals, he will be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and not as a prince, and he will have to vacate his Royal Lodge mansion near Windsor Castle. Debt - The U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet. - It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year. - “During his first eight months in office, President Trump has reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 by cutting spending and boosting revenue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, adding that the administration would pursue robust economic growth, lower inflation, tariff revenue, lower borrowing costs and cuts to waste, fraud and abuse. - Petersen Foundation: “Along with increasing debt, you get higher interest costs, which are now the fastest growing part of the budget,” Peterson added. “We spent $4 trillion on interest over the last decade, but will spend $14 trillion in the next ten years. Interest costs crowd out important public and private investments in our future, harming the economy for every American.” - Debt Growing by $69,000 per second over the the past year... Stock New - BIG Softbank - Softbank sells entire stake in NVDA - $5.83 Billion - To soften the blow, they said that it as because they are using it to redeploy further into AI - OpenAi to be specific - Also sold part of T-Moblie and using margin loan against ARM to fund the $22.5 BILLION investment in OpenAI - “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research, told CNBC. - IMPORTANT SO MARKETS DO NOT GET SPOOKED: ?[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said. Coreweave Earnings - The provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance. - The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year. - Problem at one of their data centers - basically they are not up and running at potential - Stock dropped 15% (Stock ran up to $185 in June and now at $88 MasterCard and Visa -  Visa and Mastercard announced a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, hoping to satisfy a judge who rejected a smaller accord as inadequate. - Monday's settlement would end 20 years of litigation in which businesses accused Visa, Mastercard and banks of conspiring to violate U.S. antitrust laws, including through the card networks' collection of "swipe fees." - The settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage point for five years. -- Retail Merchants Associations still not happy about this... - Merchants would also get more options to impose surcharges when people pay by card, including an "unfettered" ability to charge up to 3%, according to a court filing. - STILL they charge 20%-35% (The highest variable rate advertised for a specific card is 36% on the First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard Credit Card.) A Head Scratcher - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Thursday that the artificial intelligence startup is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030. - The company has inked more than $1.4 trillion of infrastructure deals in recent months to try and build out the data centers it says are needed to meet growing demand. - Question: It is almost impossible for companies with a long track record, stable business and known clientele to project out one year as things change so fast in the economy. How can a recent startup with new technology that is unknown the use in the future project out 5 years? Tesla - The vote is in and Elon got his pay package! - Update: Elon Musk is the richest person in the world as of November 2025, with a net worth that has approached and briefly crossed $500 billion Economy K Shape - U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights. - The current level is closing on on the worst in 20 years - Democrats are really in the dumps, while Republicans are upbeat (91 vs 33)  - High earners happy - lower earnings very unhappy. - For the economy? Consider that the top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending Employment - Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. - It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009. - Challenger reports the highest level of layoffs coming from the technology sector amid a time of restructuring due to AI integration. Companies in the sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. - In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. Rate Cuts? - Miran says half-point cut ‘appropriate’ for December, but Fed should at least reduce by a quarter point (What a tool!) - “If you’re making data for what, if you’re making policy for what the data are now, you are backward looking, because it will take 12 to 18 months for that to hit the economy. So you need to make policy now based on where you think the economy is going to be a year to a year and a half from now.” - SOOOOOO - he thinks the economy is slowing over the next 12-18 months? Doesn't that conflict with how great Kevin Hasset Even so.....Can't be all bad... - Levi's will sell its new line of $300 jeans in more stores next year as it looks to boost growth by tapping into strong demand for premium denim, Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh told Reuters. - Launched in Asia earlier this year, and in around two dozen stores in Europe and the U.S. since September, the Blue Tab range of higher quality jeans and shirts is part of an ongoing push to broaden the Levi's brand and attract more women. - In Europe, Blue Tab jeans sell for between about 250 and 350 euros ($290-410), compared with between 70 and 130 euros for its Red Tab line. Blue Tab jackets sell for around 700 euros. EV Hangover - Ford Motor is reportedly considering permanently ending production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid mounting losses and more challenging market conditions for EVs. - Ford's President, when asked last month by media about Lightning production potentially ending, said the company’s main priority was gas-powered models. - F-150 Lightning sales this year through October are roughly level compared with a year earlier at only 24,577 units. Since going on sale in 2022 in the U.S., Ford has sold less than 100,000 F-150 Lightning models. SAD NEWS - A 208-year-old publication that farmers, gardeners and others keen to predict the weather have relied on for guidance will be publishing for the final time. - Farmers' Almanac said Thursday that its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today's “chaotic media environment.” Access to the online version will cease next month. - The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the even older Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire, was first printed in 1818. For centuries, it's used a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles to generate long-range weather forecasts. Bad News For Stock Insiders? - Nancy Pelosi said she will not seek reelection to Congress. - Pelosi, 85, has served in the House for nearly four decades, presiding over the passa

Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks…. Say goodbye to the penny! November heading for a potential fall. Splits – Are they back? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT) INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks.... - Say goodbye to the penny - November heading for a potential fall - Prediction - When will US Government Reopen - New Term - AI Washing Markets - OpenAI - even more deals - Palatir Earnings - Serepta FLOP -AMAZON BLOWOUT - Splits - Are they back? Election Day - Updates? The SAME Stories are making their way around - Seasonally good time for equities - Don't fight the Fed - Earnings trend - Buybacks again Under/Over on When US Government Opens - November 10th - Under/Over? November Outlook - On the heels of a good October... - Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa? - More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals??? - So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside AI Washing - AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced. - It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology. - Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year. Amazon - Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report - Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line - Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus. - Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln. - North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln. - International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln. - AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln. - Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln. - Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln. OpenAi and Amazon - OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units. - This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year. - The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond. - Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years. - Amazon up another 5% Palantir Earnings - Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus - Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus - Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH - Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in? AMD Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60) - Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.76 bln FactSet Consensus. - On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 54%, operating income was $2.2 billion, net income was $2 billion and diluted earnings per share was $1.20. Our third quarter results did not include any revenue from shipments of AMD Instinct MI308 GPU products to China. - Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.3-9.9 bln vs. $9.21 bln FactSet Consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 54.5%. - Down 3% after hours Netflix - Announces a 10-1 split - Commentators are all a flutter about this - so good for the small investor - ARE THEY THAT STUPID? - Example NFLX shares at $1,100 - does that preclude someone that has $250 from buying?????? ==== NO! Partial share ownership is available with most brokerages... Supreme Court dealing with Tariffs - Lower courts ruled that Trumps use of tariffs are not lawful. - Latest tirade against Canada is not a good showing for the "national security" use of tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the IEEPA-based tariffs. ----> But if it strikes down the tariffs, Bessent said in an interview, the administration will simply switch to other tariff authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows broad 15% tariffs for 150 days to calm trade imbalances. --- So they are not really national emergencies, just a Presidential authority that they will try to fit into a standing power? ----LET'S JUST SAY WHAT IT IS..... PUNITIVE MEASURES FOR FUN INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ China "Deal" - After a careful review - China won that match by a mile - China buying soybeans, says they will try to stop Fentanyl (U.S. reduced tariffs on that) and less restrictive rare earth exports out of China.... - So, what do we have ? Maybe a benefit to the farmers, nothing gained otherwise... - They checkmated us with the Rare Earths... - Not a deal - nope... Please do not call it a deal.... - EXACTLY THE SAME AS TRUMP 1.0 on this one... Headcounts - Several companies are talking about layoffs. - Amazon 10k - 30k - META (small) - Now the discussion is turning to WHY - AI or consumers? - Big story-line is the excess buildup post COVID and fear by companies that employees were scarce - that is changing. - On the other hand - Microsoft is hiring Singularity  - Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says only biological beings are capable of consciousness, and that developers and researchers should stop pursuing projects that suggest otherwise. - “I don’t think that is work that people should be doing,” Suleyman told CNBC in an interview this week at the AfroTech Conference in Houston, where he was among the keynote speakers. “If you ask the wrong question, you end up with the wrong answer. I think it’s totally the wrong question.” - Thoughts??? Say goodbye to the Penny - US no longer makes pennies - Retailers are worried about profits if they cannot provide, they may have to round up to a nickle when they make change for a transaction - In fact there is some panic about this it appears.... - Why can't a place just round to the nickle on the sale?????? Seems simple (they pass on other costs to consumers all the time) NEED HELP! - Watching TV and a Bombardier commercial for one of their jets comes on.. - Fastest private airplane in the world -Global 8000 - "See a dawn that never ends" (If I am flying into the dawn EAST, as they show in the commercial, on a very fast plane - Dawn is quick and over.) - See a sunset that never ends... isn't that a more truthful and better line? Morgan Stanley AND Goldman CEOS -  Tag Team - Talking about how a correction could be coming - Can they create corrections with their comments? - All about perception, outlook and confidence...... Serepta - Nice Bounce... Then: - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plunged 40% after its late-stage Duchenne trial failure and weak sales overshadowed a slight earnings beat. -Q3 2025 revenue fell 15% year-over-year, driven by lower ELEVIDYS sales and ongoing restructuring efforts, despite steady demand for its PMO portfolio. Shein - Child like Sex Dolls on their site - After France's consumer watchdog found sex dolls resembling children for sale on Shein's platform, finance minister Roland Lescure threatened on Monday to block Shein's access to the French market if it ever sold such dolls again. - France is working on fast fashion law that may crimp Shein sales - so this is a way for France to go after competition with its fashion firms. - Shein is supposed to be opening outlets in several malls and stores in France New Financial Hub - Y'All Street? - Financial services firms have increased their presence in the state of Texas in recent years as they diversify their strategic footprint beyond the traditional financial hub of New York City's Wall Street. - Meanwhile: Greg Abbott Threatens ‘100% Tariff’ On New Yorkers Moving to Texas   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER of The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Exhaustion signals TESLA – a rabbit out of a hat! Fed meeting in focus S&P earnings week – its a big one PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Don't fight the tape - Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems - Seeing lots of overheated signs..... - BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about Markets - Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday - Biggest week for earnings (S&P) - ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500 - Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise! - Emerging markets - On FIRE! Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes. The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas. Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project Fed Meeting - Stock and All time highs - GOLD, SILVER rocking - Crypto doing just fine - GDP good - Employment good - Housing market improving - Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED - Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%) - FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT  CPI - The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected. - Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown. Quick Meme Update - BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week... - We should have shorted for the game like we talked about - It was supposed to be the next Apple! Qualcomm News! - They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA - Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed) - Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs. - Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years) Why Not Intel? - The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices  to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters. - The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on. NVDA Spending Spree - Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia - Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker. - Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news. - Nokia will issue more than 166 million new shares and will use the proceeds to fund its plans for AI and other general corporate purposes. - The two companies also struck a strategic partnership to work together to develop next-generation 6G cellular technology. Nokia said that it would adapt its 5G and 6G software to run on Nvidia’s chips, and will collaborate on networking technology for AI. Government Shut Down - Flight Delays - NO EBT starting November - High pressure tactics that will be used in the future - Pulling some benefits from Blue States - Need to have new plan to deal with these politicians  - are they getting paid? YES Farmer Scott - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has “felt pain” from China refusing to buy American soybeans during a trade conflict with President Donald Trump. - “I’m actually a soybean farmer,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.” - SURPRISE! Part of the Framework deal with China is that China will again start buying soybeans Cathy Wood - Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on Tuesday pushed back on fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, while flagging the possibility of a “reality check” on AI valuations. -  Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, or FII, in Riyadh, Wood said that as interest rates begin to rise, “there will be a shudder” in markets. - “We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates,” the closely watched investor said. NO WAY JOSE - Not good.... this needs to be explained and reversed... - The mystery donor whose $130 million contribution is meant to pay U.S. military troops during the government shutdown is Timothy Mellon, an heir to a renowned Gilded Age banking family, The New York Times reported Saturday. - But Mellon’s donation works out to only about $100 per service member. It costs nearly $6.4 billion to pay U.S. troops every two weeks. - And using his money might run afoul of federal law, according to the Times, which cited two people familiar with the matter in identifying the billionaire railroad magnate as the donor. - This invites all sorts of potential problems and conflict of interest. Plus, can we just say where we want our tax dollars to go to? How about those Profit Margins? - Given concerns in the market about tariffs and higher costs, what is the S&P 500 reporting for a net profit margin for Q3? - The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 12.8%, which is equal to the previous quarter’s net profit margin, but above the year-ago net profit margin and above the 5-year average. - In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1%). - --- BUT that 5-yr average includes some hard times... - At the sector level, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year increase in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Financials (19.9% vs. 18.0%) and Utilities (16.7% vs. 14.8%) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors are reporting a year-over-year decrease in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Communication Services (13.8 vs. 14.8%), Real Estate (34.3% vs. 35.2%), and Health Care (7.3% vs. 8.2%) sectors. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains. OpenAI - Following up on the vendor financing and circular financing - OpenAI has close to a TRILLION DOLLARS of commitments over the next 10 years. - Signed a deal with AMD last we spoke and spiked that stock 40% (OpenAI could option for 10% ownership through warrants) - As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chip deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on. MORE.... - Questions starting to get raised about the possibility of OpenAI actually being able to fund these deals. - Example - Oracle repricing - DOWN 18% Tesla - Bad earnings - no problem! Let's announce more Robotaxi potential and now ROBOTS - Horrible  earnings, with a really ugly margin compression from expected (500bps) - Just wait a day or so and the stock rebounds from $417 to $457 on a PR blitz to show that there is still the chance that the dream of Autonomous driving will happen AND - Tesla chair Robyn Denholm pleaded with shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk's unprecedented compensation package, one that could cost the company $1 trillion, with the threat of Musk leaving the company. - In a letter sent to shareholders Monday morning, which follows a prior letter sent last week, Denholm warned the company stands to lose Musk's leadership if shareholders do not approve the plan. Amazon - Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning on Tuesday, as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for overhiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter. - The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022. Target - Company said on Thursday it’s cutting 1,800 corporat

A new crisis is brewing – banking sector again Markets is sideways mode The scary tariffs and a walk back Apple News…….. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter We’re dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon... Warm-Up - A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again - Markets is sideways mode - The scary tariffs and a walk back - Apple News........ - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC Markets - Yields dropping - Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress) - Fed stops tightening - why is that? - TACO trade is back - Buig Tech earnings on the way "Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up" US Government Shutdown - Day 19? Bitcoin - Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back - Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks - Trump tariff comments spooked speculators -- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! - Taking a walloping last couple of days... -- Was really overbought -- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days) Gold, Silver BOOM - Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad - Major holiday in India --- First day of Diwali in India - Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes: -- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth). -- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day. --  Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment. New Phrase - Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases.... - "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals - Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs - OBNOXIOUS! Super TACO - What was that? - Bad lunch or something? - 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon - - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb) - Trump Walks back on Sunday Warnings - David Solomon (GS CEO) - Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years. - Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won’t feel good.” More Warnings - Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...) - First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company’s use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing. - Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp. -- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing. Seems as though there is some concern that poor underwriting and sloppy loan issuance (and oversight) is something again. ------- This is much more difficult to paper over or to rescue like the Bond valuation crisis a couple of years ago. ZERO Dated Options - Daily turnarounds, especially on Fridays - New studies showing that the zero date options push toward the end of the day is a big player - On a index with 35-40% of top 10 holdings in makeup - easier to push those names and then collect on the options.. - Friday 10/17 is a good example of hos that occurs.. --- Decliners outpaced advancers all day - Small cap down - mega cap up ----- As day progressed, squeezing continued - (partially due to Trumps comments that everything is going well with China - aka 180 degrees from the Friday before) Listener Question: - What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? - The phrase “Mar-a-Lago Accord” was coined by US money market wizard and previous Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Poszar back in June 2024 on an idea that the US could force countries to accept a weaker dollar and lower interest rates on their US Treasury investments in order to still be protected by the US security ... GM Earnings - GM stock rose more than 15% in trading Tuesday. The stock, which closed Monday at $58 per share, had its best day since 2020 and its second best day on the market since its 2009 emergence from bankruptcy. - Here’s how the company performed in the third quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG: -- Earnings per share: $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.31 expected -- Revenue: $48.59 billion vs. $45.27 billion expected -- Adjusted EBIT: $3.38 billion vs. $2.72 billion expected - GM also reduced the expected impact of tariffs this year to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4 billion to $5 billion. The automaker expects to offset about 35% of that impact. Meanwhile - Ferrari - Ferrari posted their worst trading day ever on last Thursday after the luxury carmaker updated its full-year and 2030 guidance and scaled back its electrification ambitions. - Analysts were disappointed by the new guidance, saying it fell short of expectations. - The Italy-based sports car manufacturer said at its Capital Markets Day, or CMD, event that it expected net revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros ($8.2 billion) this year, up from a previous forecast of more than 7 billion euros. - Net revenue is expected to be around 9 billion euros in 2030, and the company is targeting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of at least 3.6 billion euros by 2030. Quantum Stocks - JP Morgan announced that it will invest $10B in 27 specific industries, including Quantum computing - that sent them flying again - RGTI, IONQ, QBTS - to the moon! Apple News - Apple and Formula 1 today announced a five-year partnership that will bring all F1 races exclusively to Apple TV in the United States beginning next year. - The partnership builds on Apple’s deepening relationship with Formula 1 following the global success of Apple Original Films’ adrenaline-fueled blockbuster F1 The Movie, the highest-grossing sports movie of all time. - United by a commitment to innovation and fan experience, the partnership sets the stage for Formula 1’s continued growth in the U.S. More Apple News - iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday. - The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report. - Sales of the base model iPhone 17 nearly doubled in China compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period, it added, with sales of the model rising 31% across the two markets. - Stock hits ATH on Monday and helps DJIA move up BIG Pharma Follw Up - Several pharmaceutical companies have said they will sell drugs direct to patients in the U.S. and offered discounts following President Donald Trump's calls to bring down drug prices and cut out "middlemen" like pharmacies, insurers and pharmacy benefit managers. - This is another blow to pharmacies Robbery! - Thieves in balaclavas broke into Paris' Louvre museum on Sunday, using a crane to smash an upstairs window, then stealing priceless objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels before escaping on motorbikes, officials said. The robbery raises awkward questions about security at the museum, where officials had already sounded the alarm about lack of investment at a world-famous site - They said it was likely the robbery was either commissioned by a collector, in which case there was a chance of recovering the pieces in a good state, or undertaken by thieves interested only in the valuable jewels and precious metals. Blame Game - Companies across the U.S. and Europe have been cutting staff, citing the impact of artificial intelligence. There may be more to the layoffs than meets the eye as firms are "scapegoating" the technology to take the fall for challenging business moves such as layoffs, according to one professor. Some companies that flourished during the pandemic "significantly overhired" and the recent layoffs might just be a "market clearance," the professor said. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains. Boooooze - Exports of U.S. spirits fell 9% in the second quarter, according to

HYSTERICAL! Some of the best host stories from over the years. Recipes and food talk…. How about that Egg book? Shotguns and Booze anyone ? Clay Pigeons… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)  Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter