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NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT)

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Warm-Up

- Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks....

- Say goodbye to the penny

- November heading for a potential fall

- Prediction - When will US Government Reopen

- New Term - AI Washing

Markets

- OpenAI - even more deals

- Palatir Earnings

- Serepta FLOP

-AMAZON BLOWOUT

- Splits - Are they back?

Election Day - Updates?

The SAME Stories are making their way around

- Seasonally good time for equities

- Don't fight the Fed

- Earnings trend

- Buybacks again

Under/Over on When US Government Opens

- November 10th - Under/Over?

November Outlook

- On the heels of a good October...

- Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa?

- More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals???

- So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside

AI Washing

- AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced.

- It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology.

- Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year.

Amazon

- Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report

- Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

- Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus.

- Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln.

- North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln.

- International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln.

- AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln.

- Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln.

- Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln.

OpenAi and Amazon

- OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units.

- This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year.

- The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond.

- Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years.

- Amazon up another 5%

Palantir Earnings

- Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus

- Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus

- Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH

- Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in?

AMD Earnings

- Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60)

- Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.76 bln FactSet Consensus.

- On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 54%, operating income was $2.2 billion, net income was $2 billion and diluted earnings per share was $1.20. Our third quarter results did not include any revenue from shipments of AMD Instinct MI308 GPU products to China.

- Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.3-9.9 bln vs. $9.21 bln FactSet Consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 54.5%.

- Down 3% after hours

Netflix

- Announces a 10-1 split

- Commentators are all a flutter about this - so good for the small investor

- ARE THEY THAT STUPID?

- Example NFLX shares at $1,100 - does that preclude someone that has $250 from buying??????

==== NO! Partial share ownership is available with most brokerages...

Supreme Court dealing with Tariffs

- Lower courts ruled that Trumps use of tariffs are not lawful.

- Latest tirade against Canada is not a good showing for the "national security" use of tariffs

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the IEEPA-based tariffs.

----> But if it strikes down the tariffs, Bessent said in an interview, the administration will simply switch to other tariff authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows broad 15% tariffs for 150 days to calm trade imbalances.

--- So they are not really national emergencies, just a Presidential authority that they will try to fit into a standing power?

----LET'S JUST SAY WHAT IT IS..... PUNITIVE MEASURES FOR FUN

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

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China "Deal"

- After a careful review - China won that match by a mile

- China buying soybeans, says they will try to stop Fentanyl (U.S. reduced tariffs on that) and less restrictive rare earth exports out of China....

- So, what do we have ? Maybe a benefit to the farmers, nothing gained otherwise...

- They checkmated us with the Rare Earths...

- Not a deal - nope... Please do not call it a deal....

- EXACTLY THE SAME AS TRUMP 1.0 on this one...

Headcounts

- Several companies are talking about layoffs.

- Amazon 10k - 30k

- META (small)

- Now the discussion is turning to WHY

- AI or consumers?

- Big story-line is the excess buildup post COVID and fear by companies that employees were scarce - that is changing.

- On the other hand - Microsoft is hiring

Singularity 

- Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says only biological beings are capable of consciousness, and that developers and researchers should stop pursuing projects that suggest otherwise.

- “I don’t think that is work that people should be doing,” Suleyman told CNBC in an interview this week at the AfroTech Conference in Houston, where he was among the keynote speakers. “If you ask the wrong question, you end up with the wrong answer. I think it’s totally the wrong question.”

- Thoughts???

Say goodbye to the Penny

- US no longer makes pennies

- Retailers are worried about profits if they cannot provide, they may have to round up to a nickle when they make change for a transaction

- In fact there is some panic about this it appears....

- Why can't a place just round to the nickle on the sale?????? Seems simple (they pass on other costs to consumers all the time)

NEED HELP!

- Watching TV and a Bombardier commercial for one of their jets comes on..

- Fastest private airplane in the world

-Global 8000

- "See a dawn that never ends"