What the Futures!

Canola just broke $700, but a weekend escalation in the Middle East is sending diesel and fertilizer costs through the roof. In this week's Cup of Coffee, Ryan breaks down what's moving markets and what farmers should do RIGHT NOW about fuel, urea, and canola hedging. Guest Quintin from JGL Capital joins to walk through the two hedging strategies dominating broker conversations this week: straight puts (with implied volatility still low) and selling futures with an upside insurance call. Plus: Should you fill your fuel tanks today or wait? TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Opening & Market Prices (Canola $703 May / $707 Nov) 2:28 — Grain Prices: $15 Canola, $9 Yellow Peas, $8.25 HRSW 4:50 — Input Prices: Diesel 97¢–$1.21/L, Urea $1,100–$1,140/ton 7:05 — Viewer Questions: Fuel timing, wheat targets, raising hedge levels 9:01 — Headlines: Brazil Soy Cut, China Tariff Drop, Strait of Hormuz 11:00 — Guest: Quinton from JGL Capital 12:40 — Are Farmer Margins Actually Getting Worse in 2026? 14:02 — Canola Rally: Why It's Holding Steady Above $700 16:40 — Two Canola Hedging Strategies Right Now (Puts vs. Futures + Call) 18:00 — Wheat Outlook: Funds Buying Back Shorts, Basis Still Brutal LINKS & RESOURCES: - JGL Capital (Quinton): https://www.jglcapital.com AGi3 Precision Insurance: https://www.agi3.ai  What The Futures Podcast: https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca Ryan's Email: ryan@whatthefuturespodcast.ca - Susan Stroud / No Bull Ag (referenced) AgRule Brazil Soy Production Report Quote of the week from Susan Stroud: "When markets pay you for uncertainty, take them up on it." ️ Cup of Coffee airs LIVE every Tuesday at 8:00 AM MST on YouTube. Listen to the show on the go. https://open.spotify.com/show/3xz7OvO7P0WDW8mAx25L1y?si=bd51356530834599 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/what-the-futures/id1715185428

In episode 112 of the What the Futures Podcast, Ryan Denis interviews Trent Klarenbach in Camrose, Alberta as November canola approaches $700, discussing key resistance levels, whether the move is a bear-market rally, and why growers should position for both downside protection and upside potential. Ryan shares show updates, a March 1–April 11 hat design contest supporting the Canadian Center for Agricultural Wellbeing, and sponsor notes on John Deere Operations Center. The mailbag covers put options vs futures-first contracts, choosing hedge months, and how to think about percent sold when yields are uncertain, plus broker suggestions including Simpson Caputo Group, JGL Capital, and Simple Hedge. Positive moments include a successful long-dated canola target sale and a top-priced feed barley sale. Sabrina from UPL explains herbicide layering research for herbicide-resistant wild oats and highlights battalion’s multi-mode broadleaf and wild oat control. 00:00 Canola Near $700 04:54 Hat Contest Launch 08:46 Trent Interview Begins 09:48 Canola Pullback Signals 12:59 Bear Rally or Bull Turn 14:46 Market Structure and Land 17:06 Specialty Crops and Corn 19:45 Positive Moments Roundup 25:04 2027 Canola Targets 29:32 Timing New Crop Sales 34:46 Choosing a Futures Broker 48:54 UPL Products Spotlight 50:41 Eating Your Veggies 52:43 Final Sign Off

Episode 111 of What the Futures is a two-for-one: REAL 2026 crop marketing talk with Saskatchewan farmer Nathan Kuhn + Milano Cortina 2026 Olympics hockey/curling with Tyler Yaremchuk (Daily Faceoff / Oilersnation). If you’re staring at canola targets and wondering “sell or hold?”, this episode is for you, plus we break down the chaos in Italy as the medal rounds heat up. CHAPTERS / TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Episode 111 preview (Nathan Kuhn + Tyler Yaremchuk) 00:37 UPL studio + program talk (Smart Art Buy / Grower Rewards) + Battalion 02:10 Olympics are the “positive moment” this week 04:24 Nathan Kuhn joins (Unity, SK) 08:36 How Nathan thinks about grain marketing (targets & mindset) 12:34 Canola market run: what matters next 16:40 Wheat outlook + 2026 crop plans 20:11 Canola acres 2026 + “don’t mess around with your bread & butter” 23:37 Options/spreads/fuel + managing risk 28:50 Wrap with Nathan 29:24 Crop Marketing Made Cool Conference (Dec 1–2, 2026) 31:49 Ryan’s market watch: canola basis (-66) + why May matters 41:31 BrettYoung canola early-book bonus reminder (deadline Feb 27) 42:20 Tyler Yaremchuk joins: Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic hockey breakdown 50:48 Switch gears → curling controversy 57:23 Medal-round predictions + what to watch next 01:03:50 “Eating your veggies” (profit goals + remove emotion) 01:09:36 Lunch Box Crew spots open + wrap LINKS RYAN MENTIONS / WHERE TO FIND THINGS Ryan Denis (main): https://www.ryandenis.ca/ Lunch Box Crew: https://www.ryandenis.ca/lunch-box-crew Conference 2026: https://www.ryandenis.ca/2026-conference Podcast site: https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca/ Daily Faceoff on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@daily_faceoff Oilersnation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Oilersnationdotcom Tyler on X: https://www.x.com/tyleryaremchuk Ryan on X: https://www.x.com/Ryan_Denis_ #Canola #CropMarketing #MilanoCortina2026 Listen to the show on the go. https://open.spotify.com/show/3xz7OvO7P0WDW8mAx25L1y?si=bd51356530834599 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/what-the-futures/id1715185428 ‍ Follow on Instagram and X for more market insights. https://www.instagram.com/whatthefuturespod/ https://x.com/wtfuturespod Email Ryan: ryan@whatthefuturespodcast.ca What the Futures Podcast Website: https://www. whatthefuturespodcast.ca Thanks to our Sponsors John Deere https://operationscenter.deere.com/ UPL https://www.uplcorp.com/ BrettYoung https://brettyoung.ca/

00:00 Market Open: Canola, Soybeans, Wheat & CAD Snapshot 01:42 Viewer Qs: Red Lentils at 24¢ and 2026 Durum Acres 02:51 Headlines Driving Ag: Middle East, China Buying, Canola Anti-Dumping Decision 04:49 Wheat Watch: Record Volume, Weather Risks & KC Wheat Setup 06:16 Guest Joins: Sarah Cache (Trigger Grain) + Prairie Mood Check 08:20 KC Wheat Strategies: Targets, Basis Plays & Don’t Sleep on 2027 Futures 09:54 Old-Crop Movement: What’s Moving (Peas/Barley) and Where Specials Are 11:01 Canola Rally Game Plan: New-Crop Risk Management Near $700 13:40 Cereals & Pulses: Oats Economics, Red Lentils Pricing, Durum Outlook 17:24 Wrap-Up: Cereal Rankings, Crush Plant Capacity, Record Deliveries & Sign-Off

In this episode of the What the Futures Podcast, host Ryan reviews the topics and strategies covered over the past month, answers listener questions from a swamped mailbag, and dives into market insights. Recorded from the UPL studio, the episode touches on important dates like the Valentine's Day reminder for farmers and the Smart Buy rewards deadline. Ryan addresses his take on the canola market, comments from previous episodes, the challenges of being bullish or bearish, and the steadying of markets. He also discusses his interactions with industry insiders, crop marketing planning, and the dynamics of pricing and sales contracts. For those interested in farming and crops, this episode offers a recap of significant discussions and actionable strategies for future farming decisions. 00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview 02:08 Market Analysis and Canola Rally 08:30 Crop Marketing Strategies 11:34 Grain Buyer Conversations 16:18 Crop Rankings and Market Trends 21:08 Farm Planning and Administration 22:58 Positive Moments: A Dad's Victory at the RV Show 28:03 Market Updates: Prices from the Prairies 29:31 Farmer Q&A: Producer Cars and Canola Contracts 36:38 Grain Marketing Strategies and Success Metrics 43:32 Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts

In this episode, we dive into the latest market moves including canola, soybeans, bean oil, spring wheat, and corn. We'll explore the impact of the USDA report, discuss the India US trade deal's effect on bean oil prices, and analyze key trends such as canola crush margins and wheat market strategies. Questions from viewers tackle topics like marketing wheat for cash flow, canola crush margins, spread markets, and selecting grain marketing advisors. Additionally, we provide tips for leveraging market information for better price discovery. Join us for in-depth agricultural market insights and strategies. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:40 USDA Report Insights 00:50 Viewer Questions and Market Analysis 01:59 Headlines and Market Trends 02:47 In-Depth Market Discussions 05:46 Canola Crush Margins 10:16 Wheat Market Strategies 13:36 Barley Market and Grain Advisors 15:56 Rapid Insights and Conclusion

In this episode of 'What The Futures Podcast,' host Ryan delves into the current state of Western Canadian grain prices, reflecting on why he's the least bearish he's been in over three years. Joined by Bret Walts from BAM Weather, they discuss February's weather trends and what farmers can expect looking forward, including the potential for a delayed start to spring. Additionally, David and Mark from Global Ag Risk Solutions share insights on various private insurance offerings and new products for 2026 to help farmers mitigate risks and make informed decisions. Tune in for essential tips on crop marketing and managing farm risk in 2026. 00:00 Introduction and Market Sentiment 00:34 Podcast Welcome and Episode Overview 09:49 Canola Market Insights 18:35 Weather Forecast with Brett Waltz 34:09 Positive Moments and Personal Updates 36:43 Insurance and Risk Management Discussion 43:20 Handling Buyouts and Claims 46:37 Data-Driven Farm Management 50:35 Challenges and Learnings from 2025 01:06:55 New Insurance Products for 2026 01:16:48 Importance of Insurance in 2026 01:23:13 Final Thoughts and Advice Listen to the show on the go. https://open.spotify.com/show/3xz7OvO7P0WDW8mAx25L1y?si=bd51356530834599 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/what-the-futures/id1715185428 ‍ Follow on Instagram and X for more market insights. https://www.instagram.com/whatthefuturespod/ https://x.com/wtfuturespod Email Ryan: ryan@whatthefuturespodcast.ca What the Futures Podcast Website: https://www. whatthefuturespodcast.ca Thanks to our Sponsors John Deere https://operationscenter.deere.com/ UPL https://www.uplcorp.com/ BrettYoung https://brettyoung.ca/

Join us as we dive into the current movements in the grain markets in Western Canada. This episode features a special guest, John Depape, who provides insights on topics ranging from canola prices, wheat trends, soybean oil volatility, and the impact of the China tariff pause on yellow and green pea markets. We also discuss the influence of recent US-India trade deals, the implications of the upcoming StatsCan report, and the trends in fertilizer prices. Don't miss our rapid insights and answers to farmers' pressing questions. Plus, learn about DG Mobile Seed Cleaning in Central Saskatchewan. Subscribe, like, and leave a comment to support the show! 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:25 Market Prices Update 01:09 Viewer Questions and Topics 02:37 Headlines and News 04:12 Guest Introduction and Discussion 07:49 Canola Basis and Futures Analysis 12:53 Final Questions and Rapid Insights 17:22 Conclusion and Sponsor Shoutout

In this episode of What The Futures Podcast, Ryan Denis breaks down 2026 crop insurance strategy, fertilizer price shocks, and canola decision-making with Lysa Porth of Ag i3. Prairie farmers face thinner margins, volatile inputs, and tougher risk decisions. This episode shows how to think through them. Links mentioned: UPL Grower Rewards Calculator: https://www.upl-ltd.com/ca Harvest Profit: https://www.harvestprofit.com What the Futures Podcast: https://whatthefuturespodcast.ca If you’re planning for 2026 margins, this episode helps you think more clearly about fertilizer risk, insurance strategy, and grain marketing under pressure. ⏰ Timestamps 00:00 Urea prices surge toward $980 02:15 UPL Grower Rewards & farm programs 06:10 New weekly livestream format explained 08:45 Barley outlook & slow grind higher 14:30 Crop rankings after yellow pea rally 18:40 Fertilizer market shock explained 22:10 Interview begins: Lysa Poth (AgI3) 25:00 Crop insurance pricing in 2026 31:00 Underinsured farms & real risk exposure 35:00 Yield vs revenue-based insurance 37:30 Forward Protect & grain contract risk 44:00 Insurance as a marketing tool 50:00 Mid-season coverage & new tech 59:00 Can insurance pay on price declines? 1:05:00 Forward contracting 2026–2027 crops 1:12:00 Canola strategy & wheat targets 1:17:30 Final thoughts & listener Q&A Listen to the show on the go. https://open.spotify.com/show/3xz7OvO7P0WDW8mAx25L1y?si=bd51356530834599 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/what-the-futures/id1715185428 ‍ Follow on Instagram and X for more market insights. https://www.instagram.com/whatthefuturespod/ https://x.com/wtfuturespod Email Ryan: ryan@whatthefuturespodcast.ca What the Futures Podcast Website: https://www. whatthefuturespodcast.ca Thanks to our Sponsors John Deere https://operationscenter.deere.com/ UPL https://www.uplcorp.com/ BrettYoung https://brettyoung.ca/

In this episode of 'What The Futures' hosted by Ryan, various agricultural market trends are explored. The discussion opens with questions on the canola market, addressing concerns about sales strategies amidst improving basis levels and climbing futures. The yellow pea market is analyzed next, noting a significant price increase due to China removing tariffs. Wheat market fluctuations, affected by weather events in the US, are also examined. Guest analyst Trent shares insights on canola and wheat futures, emphasizing current resistance levels and potential market pullbacks. The episode concludes with market advice on pricing strategies and highlights on new crop forecasts. Join us for an in-depth look at these critical market trends and more. 00:00 Introduction and Viewer Questions 00:01 Canola Market Analysis 00:44 Yellow Pea Market Update 01:17 Futures Market Overview 01:57 Weather Impact on Crops 02:57 South American Crop Insights 03:45 Canadian Canola Exports to China 04:35 Guest Analyst Discussion 08:21 Wheat Market Trends 10:53 Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up

Soybean oil is ripping higher and canola is catching a bid — but the real driver is US biofuel policy. In Episode 107, Ryan Denis is joined by Susan Stroud (No Bull Ag) to break down the new 45Z changes, what’s set in stone, and what we’re still waiting on from the EPA’s 2026–27 RVO mandates. If you’re marketing canola in Canada (or soybeans in the US), this is the clearest explanation of what’s moving veg oils right now — and what could change fast. Links mentioned: Join Ryan’s email list: https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca/ Susan Stroud’s market insights: https://nobullag.com/ (see “Market Insights”) UPL Grower Rewards: https://www.uplcorp.com/ca/grower-rewards

In this episode, host Ryan welcomes Chuck Penner, Trent Klarenbach, and Brian Comeault for episode 105 of the What The Futures Podcast. The discussion primarily focuses on 2026 crop marketing strategies, with special insights from multiple guests on the future outlook of commodities, trade impacts, and market dynamics. The contributors share their views on how farmers can navigate the crop market in the coming year. Tyler Yaremchuk also joins for a segment discussing NFL playoff previews and NHL midpoint reviews. Additionally, the episode covers useful tips for farmers on inventory management, setting cash flow, and more efficient crop marketing techniques through tools like Harvest Profit. 00:00 Welcome Back to the What The Futures Podcast! 00:38 Holiday Recap and Studio Updates 03:45 New Year, New Goals: 2026 Vision 08:52 Special Guests and Crop Marketing Insights 11:59 In-Depth Discussion with Chuck Penner 33:11 Challenges in Barley and Malt Pricing 33:39 Year-Over-Year Changes in Crop Acreage 34:29 Market Dynamics and Price Movements 36:48 Advice for Farmers in 2026 38:30 Upcoming Workshops and Events 40:53 Interview with Trent Klarenbach 42:32 Market Outlook for 2026 49:47 Energy and Fertilizer Market Trends 52:54 Global Market Influences and Predictions 01:02:37 Interview with Brian Comeault 01:12:21 Market Structure and Opportunities 01:13:45 Canadian Wheat and Canola Insights 01:15:06 Grain Selling Strategies 01:15:48 Global Market Influences 01:18:47 Future Market Predictions 01:25:46 NFL and NHL Updates 01:41:31 Crop Marketing and Planning for 2026

In Episode 104 of the What the Futures Podcast, host Ryan discusses the recent closure of a pricing window and the challenges of making big selling decisions during the winter. Recorded from the UPL Studios, Ryan recaps a successful conference in Moose Jaw, thanking his family, speakers, and attendees. The episode also includes a detailed interview with Tony from UPL about their Grower Rewards program, touching on its ease of access and significant financial benefits for farmers. Ryan provides insights on the current crop market and offers advice on managing cash flow needs in a tough pricing environment. The episode ends on a positive note, celebrating community engagement and looking forward to future events and strategies. 00:00 Introduction and Podcast Overview 00:56 Conference Recap and Acknowledgements 04:30 Upcoming Events and Announcements 05:49 Market Analysis and Strategies 18:03 Grower Rewards Discussion with Tony from UPL 21:43 Key Advantages of the Program 26:28 2026 Program Details and Enhancements 29:05 Partnerships and Collaborations 31:29 Supply Chain and Product Availability 33:51 Closing Remarks and Personal Insights 34:02 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events

Get your tickets for Brandon, Manitoba Dec 1st & 2nd, 2026. ryandenis.ca 

In Episode 103 of the What the Futures Podcast, host Ryan welcomes Josh Linville, the fertilizer market expert from Stonex, to discuss the current state and future trends of the fertilizer industry. Recorded in the UPL Studio, Ryan kicks off the episode with updates about the upcoming Crop Marketing Made Cool conference in Moose Jaw and recent agricultural market insights. Josh elaborates on global factors affecting fertilizer prices, the impact of China's export behaviors, and the challenges of expanding fertilizer production. They also dive into the implications for North American farmers and strategies for making better buying decisions amid fluctuating market conditions. Additionally, Tyler Yaremchuk from the Nation Network drops by to discuss the latest on the Edmonton Oilers and NHL trade rumors. Don't miss this deep dive into the world of agriculture, sports, and strategic planning for the new year! 00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview 00:34 Upcoming Events and Conference Details 01:38 Guest Introduction: Josh Linville 02:40 Market Insights and Crop Marketing Window 05:38 Hockey Talk with Tyler 20:48 Crop Production Estimates and Market Analysis 29:32 Interview with Josh Linville 31:01 Challenges in the Fertilizer Industry 32:59 China's Impact on Urea and Phosphate Markets 34:14 Investment and Expansion in Fertilizer Production 37:59 Market Dynamics and Farmer Decisions 41:58 Future Outlook and Buying Strategies 48:02 Connecting with Industry Experts 51:10 Podcast Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts

In episode 102 of the 'What the Futures Podcast,' host Ryan discusses the often frustrating yet crucial aspect of grain contracting targets within Western Canadian farming. Highlights include an in-depth look at how targets can work, a reflective segment on a recent trip to Raleigh, North Carolina revealing the people-centric nature of farming, and various shout-outs for recent accomplishments and contributors to the farming community. Also, noteworthy crop marketing insights include the rising prices of yellow peas, red lentils, and feed barley, as well as the importance of effective target setting. Additionally, listeners get a glimpse of the challenges faced by farmers and the cutthroat competition in the wheat market. Join Ryan in this informative episode made to guide farmers in making better decisions and navigating the intricacies of the agricultural industry. 00:00 Introduction to Episode 102 04:40 Thank Yous and Acknowledgements 07:23 YouTube Apology and Listener Feedback 10:31 Positive Moments and Personal Anecdotes 13:18 Conference Planning and Excitement 18:12 Crop Marketing Insights 26:13 Target Strategies in Grain Marketing 32:02 Upcoming Episodes and Events 33:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Crop diversity, 2026 seeding plans, and real farm margins, that’s what we dive into on Episode 101 of What The Futures with returning guest Nathan Kon. Recorded in Raleigh, NC at the UPL Research Center, Ryan breaks down 2025 learnings, John Deere Operations Center insights, specialty crop performance, fuel-efficiency margin advantages, and how farmers are planning acres heading into 2026. Nathan shares how his farm approached wheat, canola, malt barley, yellow peas, mustard, lentils, and oats—and what he’s expanding in 2026. Plus: market rallies you shouldn’t sleep on, cash-flow planning, basis levels, hedging, and the importance of working with the right broker. Crop Marketing Made Cool Conference — Dec 9–11 (Moose Jaw)Get tickets → https://www.ryandenis.ca UPL online auction → https://www.ryandenis.ca BrettYoung email signup → https://www.bretteyoung.ca ⏰ Timestamps 00:00 Intro, UPL studio, Raleigh NC 01:08 Online auction, UPL Battalion, CCAW 02:00 Positive moments, family, travel 03:02 Crop diversity, tight margins 2026 04:10 Canola ranked #1, John Deere Ops Center 05:18 Hidden factors in crop ranking 06:14 2026 seeding plans, no silver bullet 08:00 Post-harvest rally, don’t sleep on markets 09:58 Winter logistics, basis, cash flow 12:40 BrettYoung email list, canola rebate, travel vouchers 13:20 Nathan Kon intro, Roughriders, UPL trip 15:20 2025 results on Nathan’s farm 17:00 Specialty crops: lentils, barley, oats, mustard 19:18 Mustard grading issues, yields, lessons 20:24 Crops to expand, wheat vs specialty margins 21:40 Yellow peas, carryover, price risk 23:00 Speaking at Crop Marketing Made Cool, RBC 24:10 2025 marketing wins: canola, wheat, feed barley 26:00 Wheat basis, export demand, carry 28:10 Futures, options, hedging with broker 31:00 Conference vibe, engaged farmers, Moose Jaw 36:40 Eating Your Veggies: cash flow, 2026 plans 41:00 Online auction last call, salsa, sponsors 43:00 Closing, ticket invite, subscribe

We talked Jays heartbreak, Oilers questions, NHL surprises and CFL predictions — a fun break from the markets.

This one means a lot to me.Every bid supports farmer mental health through the Canadian Centre for Agricultural Wellbeing and their Farmer Crisis Line (1-866-FARMS01). And the lineup this year is unreal.We’ve got impressive crop marketing support, one-of-a-kind gear, generous donations from UPL and Progro … and if your farm needs a new logo, this might be your lucky day. Auction closes in 9 days! Take a look. Drop a bid. → https://www.ryandenis.ca/charity-auction — Ryan