Trade with Conviction

Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk. In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle East escalation. Russian supply under threat. West-East flows rising. Chapters:  (00:37) Headlines: Middle East escalation & price volatility The team breaks down rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, Hormuz risks, and why positioning in crude is becoming increasingly difficult. (05:30) Russian flows under pressure: Ukraine strikes & supply risk Attacks on key Russian export infrastructure and tankers raise major supply concerns, yet price reaction remains muted. (08:21) Market disconnect: crude strength vs product sell-off A sharp collapse in gasoline and diesel cracks despite tightening fundamentals raises questions about risk-off sentiment vs physical reality. (12:03) Gasoline: Europe feeds the East Europe emerges as the key supplier to deficit regions, with shifting ARBs and tightening inventories reshaping flows. (20:40) Diesel: shortages emerging & flows shifting US to Asia diesel arb opens, jet weakness flips regrades, and supply stress begins to show in key regions. (24:06) Crude flows: WTI dominates & Asia struggles WTI becomes the marginal barrel globally, while Asia faces challenges securing West-of-Suez crude.  

In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a fire at Valero Port Arthur's diesel hydrotreater — the team cuts through the noise and lands on a clear conclusion: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the physical product market isn't buying it. They walk through the recovery timeline if Hormuz reopens, explain why the real trade is in deferred cracks and time spreads, and set out exactly what traders should be watching next. Chapters:  (00:53) Iran, Trump and the 48-hour ultimatum Neil walks through the weekend's escalation — Trump's threat to bomb Iranian power plants, Iran's counter-escalation, and how fears over GCC desalination infrastructure brought the region to the edge. (04:33) The pre-announcement anomaly Five minutes before Trump's post, oil, bonds and equities all moved in the same direction. Felipe breaks down the unusual volume spike and why it's creating a growing mistrust in market integrity. (07:45) Tuesday: Iran retaliates and Valero Port Arthur catches fire June covers the morning's events — drone attacks intercepted over Saudi Arabia, power outages in Kuwait, sirens in Bahrain, and an unplanned explosion at the diesel hydrotreater of one of the US's top 10 refineries. (09:48) Three scenarios: de-escalation, price suppression or chaos? The team stress-tests what Monday's announcement actually means. Neil's base case: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the product supply crunch hasn't gone anywhere. (20:15) If Hormuz opens tonight, we're already in June Neil and June walk through every link in the recovery chain — vessel ballasting, oil field restarts, AG refinery force majeures, port congestion, Asian restocking. The maths lands on three to six months before anything normalises. (29:16) The trade: time spreads and cracks, not flat price Flat price is being capped. Everything else isn't. Felipe and Neil make the case for rolling backwardation and deferred cracks as the cleaner, lower-noise trade while headlines keep crude choppy.      

The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil. Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 discount to Brent as export ban fears gripped the market. TC14 and TC15 have more than doubled since the conflict started. Jet fuel in Europe hit $1,700–$1,800 a tonne, and SAS has already started cancelling routes. Chapters:  (01:00) Headlines: South Pars, Ras Laffan and the escalation spiral Neil sets the scene. Israel hits South Pars, Iran strikes Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries, flat price breaks $115, and Trump tries to rein things in — without much conviction. (03:09) Jones Act and the export ban trade A 60-day waiver on all products lands. The team debates why WTI-Brent blew out to minus $20 anyway — and whether a crude or product export ban is next. (14:50) Gasoline: East-West at historical highs Jorge walks through the TAR collapse, FizzWest hitting new records, and arbs opening into Australia and Indonesia — a signal that East-West may finally be approaching its limit. (22:53) Naphtha: South Pars condensate and demand destruction   The South Pars strike hits naphtha directly through condensate supply. Jorge covers Russian naphtha picking up, Asian steam cracker rationalisations, and where demand destruction shows up first. (29:00) Distillates and jet: Europe is drawing down fast Phil covers Gulf Coast arb economics, the Hogo under political pressure, and why jet at $1,700–$1,800/tonne is already forcing SAS to cancel intra-European routes. (35:34) Crude: WTI at minus $20 and Yambu stops loading Neil unpacks why WTI is now the cheapest crude in the world, fixtures heading to Asia, and — breaking live on the episode — Reuters confirms Yambu has halted oil loading.  

This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port damage, refinery outages and force majeure declarations reshaping crude and product flows across the Middle East and Asia. The team unpacked why government intervention, including SPR releases and possible demand controls, is only a partial fix, and why the deepest stress is showing up in products rather than crude, especially diesel, jet, gasoline, naphtha and LPG. They also explored the growing strain on Asian refiners and petrochemical players, the knock on effects for freight and arbitrage economics, and why market paralysis and political intervention are making this one of the hardest environments to price and trade. 📚 Chapters (00:40) Headlines, tanker attacks and the SPR response The team opens with the latest escalation in tanker attacks, infrastructure damage and US efforts to contain oil prices, before breaking down why the SPR release may help at the margin but still falls short of plugging the supply gap. (10:14) Petrochemicals and force majeures across Asia Jorge explains how disrupted Middle East crude, LPG and feedstock flows are hitting petrochemical producers in Korea, Japan, India and Southeast Asia, triggering force majeure announcements and forcing run cuts. (12:08) Distillates take the biggest hit James lays out why diesel and jet remain the most stressed products in the barrel, with historic pricing moves, broken East West economics and few obvious solutions for short markets in both Asia and the Atlantic Basin. (16:41) Gasoline, naphtha and LPG reprice fast The discussion shifts to light ends, where East West gasoline and naphtha spreads continue to surge, arbitrage routes are being redrawn, and India’s LPG exposure adds another layer of inflation and demand risk. (21:05) Freight dislocation and the strange crude market The team looks at how tankers are repositioning away from risk, why freight is distorting crude economics, and why physical differentials in the West are not yet reacting as aggressively as the broader market might suggest. (28:12) Fuel oil pressure and tactical trade ideas The episode closes with a look at fuel oil’s role in the wider shortage, how VLSFO is beginning to compete for distillate molecules, and where the team sees the most interesting, if highly tactical, trading opportunities.  

This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the knock on impact across products, refinery runs and freight. The team looks at why SPR releases are unlikely to solve a disruption of this scale, how Asia is absorbing the biggest immediate hit, why gasoline, jet and distillates are becoming the real pressure points, and how freight markets are reacting as trade flows are forced to reroute. Across the discussion, the central takeaway is clear: until the strait reopens, every other market move is really just a consequence of that one bottleneck. 📚 Chapters (00:50) Hormuz remains shut and the disruption spreads Felipe opens with the weekend’s key developments, from Iran’s political signalling to fresh force majeures across Asia, and why the closure of the strait still overwhelms every other market headline. (05:00) Why SPR releases are not a real solution The team breaks down the limits of strategic reserve releases, where the barrels are, how fast they can actually be drawn, and why this is only a temporary buffer rather than a fix. (09:42) Freight starts repricing the crisis Michael explains the sharp moves in tanker forward curves, the impact of SPR expectations on Atlantic basin freight, and why owners are increasingly being pulled toward the strongest loading regions. (20:44) Crude dislocations, Brent structure and the Yanbu escape valve Neil looks at why some physical crude markets are reacting hard while others remain strangely quiet, what that says about refinery behaviour, and how much Yanbu can realistically help. (25:41) Distillates and jet: where the real squeeze begins James and the team dig into diesel and jet pricing, the shifting east-west economics, and why East Asia and Europe could both end up in a tougher spot than the crude market alone suggests. (31:50) Gasoline and naphtha: open arbitrage, weak confidence The conversation turns to gasoline and naphtha, where paper signals say barrels should move east, but real world execution, demand uncertainty and refinery behaviour make the trade far messier.  

In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products. Chapters (00:50) Emergency episode: What happened, what matters, what to watch A rapid briefing on the Iran conflict, early market signals, and the key variables for traders. (02:05) Hormuz, insurance, and the market’s day by day repricing Why shipping slowed, how war risk insurance became a gating factor, and what changed into Tuesday. (07:11) Freight market shock: paralysis in the AG and repositioning west What’s tradable versus theoretical in rates, and why long haul western flows suddenly make sense. (12:04) Price action under the surface: spreads, diffs, and product stress How inter regional and inter product pricing is responding, including crude quality impacts and cracks. (16:17) Jet and diesel take the lead: run cuts, regrades, and the Asia squeeze Why refiners cut runs early, why jet is structurally exposed, and how flows and arbs are flipping. (23:14) Scenarios and tail risks: supply chain damage vs sudden relief A framework for what comes next, and why even de escalation doesn’t instantly normalize balances.

In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the immediate market impact rather than long term forecasts. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, the discussion centres on whether the market is facing a logistical bottleneck or a genuine supply shock, and how that distinction is driving sharp moves in freight, crude differentials and product cracks. The group breaks down cross commodity reactions across crude, distillates, gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, assesses the limits of the so called “oil glut” narrative, and outlines the critical signals traders should monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours. Chapters:  Segment 1: What happened and what to watch next (01:19) Strait of Hormuz: Shipping disruption and logistical shock An overview of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vessels piling up, and why this is initially a logistics crisis rather than an outright supply loss. (02:55) Tanker attacks, war risk insurance, and freight spike Discussion of reported tanker attacks, suspended war risk cover, surging AG freight rates, and the implications for global ton miles. Segment 2: Oil market impacts and pricing signals (06:10) Crude reaction: Dubai, Brent premiums, and arb dislocations How Brent Dubai EFS, Dubai premiums and global crude arbs are reacting, and why traditional arbitrage signals may not function in the near term. (06:55) Distillates and jet: East West spreads and regrade strength Why jet and diesel cracks are rallying, the significance of AG supply risk, and what strong regrades signal about refinery behaviour. (08:06) Gasoline and naphtha: East West blowout and Cape flows The sharp move in gasoline and naphtha East West spreads, backwardation constraints, and the growing importance of Cape of Good Hope routing. (09:06) Fuel oil and sour crude risk High sulphur fuel oil strength, sour crude exposure, and the impact of rewired crude flows on product balances. (11:38) Why are cracks going up relative to crude? (14:10) Explaining strong jet regrades (15:16) What is crude worth right now? (18:34) What traders should monitor in the next 24–48 hours Key signals to watch: escalation of infrastructure attacks, the reopening or sustained closure of Hormuz, refinery run responses, crude procurement shifts, and why the “oil glut” may be irrelevant in this context.    

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran negotiations and US tariff shocks to VLCC rates tripling in two months, we break down how crude flows, refining margins, and arbitrage economics are being reshaped in real time. (01:01) Geopolitics: Iran, Tariffs and OPEC The team breaks down the Iran negotiations, US tariff upheaval, China and India leverage, and what OPEC’s next move could mean for flat price direction. (08:05) Distillates: Extreme Strength and Europe’s Ceiling Diesel and jet cracks sit at seasonal highs, East-West spreads stretch wide, and arbitrage flows increasingly point barrels into Europe. (15:27) Crude, Resid and Margins: Freight Shock Hits Refiners VLCC rates surge 200% year to date, crude premiums begin to cool, and refiners reassess margins as higher freight costs ripple through buying decisions. (22:28) Arbitrage Watch: West Weakens, East Adjusts North Sea and WAF premiums soften, CPC becomes the arb anchor, and AG grades face pressure unless geopolitical risk escalates. (26:15) Quick Fire Round: Gasoline, Fuel Oil and East-West Asian gasoline shows recovery into turnaround season, Singapore 380 weakens under heavier supply, and East-West spreads test structural limits.  

In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching, gasoline contango and beyond Iran tensions boil while Europe doubles down on navigating with the new world order. Gasoline spreads swing on Dangote news, heavy selling in the Sing 92 window. Russian refinery attacks could be the start of a diesel resurgence just as swing arbs are closed into Europe. Spot AG crude diffs likely hit a ceiling on arb econs, unless Iran tail risk is realised.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of a crude glut, yet spreads remain stubbornly backwardated as geopolitics and sanctions keep traders on edge. Chapters:  (00:17) Oil glut vs geopolitical premium Is the surplus real? Heavy crude weakness, inventory builds, and why spreads refuse to break. (10:38) How important are fundamentals today? The team discuss the decrease in importance fundamentals in the market and what’s driving these changes.  (14:12) Sanctions, trade deals, and headline risk Venezuela, Russia, India, and how bilateral politics are reshaping flows faster than fundamentals. (19:40) Crude trade flows and WTI-Brent dislocation Dubai weakness, Americas supply growth, freight impact, and the marginal barrel shifting west. (22:15) Distillates and jet: Freight, Russia, and export reshuffling US Gulf runs, diesel into Europe, jet reversals, and the gasoil East-West story. (23:21) Gasoline and naphtha: Structural tightness vs geopolitical swings European refinery closures, EBOB structure, component flows, and naphtha’s sanction sensitivity. (25:35) Trade ideas: Light-heavy spreads, refinery margins, and prompt gasoline structure Medium-term positioning and short-term conviction trades across crude and products.  

Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows. Chapters (00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premium Iran de-escalation headlines versus military incidents, India’s strategic role, and why crude remains headline-led into the weekend. (09:57) Gasoline: contango, storage, and curve signals US inventory builds, Europe’s extreme carry, and how contango is supporting the prompt while pushing risk into Q2. (20:16) Crude: India buying, Russian supply, and Middle East barrels Replacement economics, Saudi OSP expectations, Lunar New Year liquidity, and why AG grades are best positioned near term. (28:23) Trade box: AG differentials bull case vs bear case Why spot diffs could firm, what caps the upside, and how China stockbuilding complicates the outlook. (30:30) Fuel oil and middle distillates quickfire Venezuela’s impact on heavy molecules, Russian HSSA outlets, diesel arbs, and freight steering flows into Europe.      

This week’s episode breaks down a market being pulled in two directions: geopolitical risk is driving flat price higher, while physical balances and inventories still point to a long market. The team covers escalating Iran risk, renewed Venezuela uncertainty, and how shifting global politics (including India’s positioning and a weaker dollar) are shaping sentiment. From there, they dive into key product moves across gasoline, naphtha, crude, and middle distillates, highlighting where physical markets are diverging from paper, how arbitrage windows are opening and closing, and what traders should watch as weather, outages, and refinery turnarounds reshape the near-term picture. Chapters:  (00:35) Geopolitical macro corner: Iran, Venezuela, and the risk premium The team unpacks the latest flashpoints driving flat price, and why traders are once again at the mercy of headlines. (04:53) Dollar weakness and the “floor” under crude A softer dollar supports prices, but the debate is whether it’s driven by growth optimism or loss of confidence. (07:50) Gasoline: USGC tightness, Europe vs paper, and East-West pressure Gasoline spreads and cracks diverge across regions, with weather, blending economics, and Asian exports reshaping the map. (14:39) Trade box: gasoline and naphtha positioning into Q2 Jorge shares two tactical ideas, plus the key risks that could challenge the setup. (19:07) Crude: outages ease, physical weakens, and Brent looks stretched CPC returns, differentials soften, and the team discusses why the physical market isn’t fully confirming the flat price rally. (26:08) Middle distillates: weather-driven spike and the short HOGO debate Heating demand and refinery constraints push cracks higher, but the trade hinges on timing, ARBs, and the next cold snap. (31:18) Fuel oil quick fire: firmer tone but not a full bull case yet Some clearing flows support the market, but cracks and arb signals still suggest caution.  

This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite looser balances, before diving into physical crude flows, Indian buying behaviour, blending economics, and the knock on effects for freight and refining margins. The episode rounds out with a detailed look at distillates, gasoline, and light ends, highlighting where recent price strength is weather driven, structural, or potentially vulnerable. Chapters: (00:40) Geopolitical headlines and market relief The team discusses Greenland, US EU tariff risks, and why markets are calmer but far from settled. (07:59) Europe, alliances, and the return of great power competition A deeper look at shifting alliances, defence spending, and why security now matters more than efficiency. (11:51) Crude structure, outages, and balance contradictions Why backwardation persists despite stock builds, with CPC outages and geopolitics in focus. (16:43) Physical crude markets and Indian buying behaviour Indian refinery strategies, blending economics, and implications for AG and Atlantic Basin flows. (23:33) Distillates outlook: diesel and jet regain momentum Cold weather, stock tightness, and why cracks and spreads are responding. (28:08) Gasoline and light ends: contango and spring signals Gasoline storage economics, Dangote delays, and early warnings from Asia.    

In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and Russia all back in focus, they explore how sanctions risk, shifting trade flows and political uncertainty are keeping crude exposed to sharp risk rallies even as the broader balance points back towards oversupply. The conversation moves through crude and product markets, questioning whether current pricing truly reflects downside supply risk, and where traders should be most alert as seasonal and geopolitical forces collide.

The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillates, the episode focuses on how barrels are being displaced rather than lost, and why geography, logistics and benchmark behaviour matter more than headline noise right now. Key Takeaways: Heavy sour barrels are being reshuffled globally, not removed, and the price signals reflect that Saudi OSP cuts and Chinese quota control are weighing on Asian crude benchmarks Freight has quietly flipped arbitrage economics across basins Gasoline structures have gone from no outlet to every outlet in a matter of weeks Fuel oil reacted fast to Venezuela headlines, but the fundamentals may not back it up Diesel looks weatherproof for now, despite cold snaps and low stocks Chapters:  (01:10) Headlines check: Venezuela and geopolitical noise The team assesses why dramatic headlines have barely moved flat price and what really matters for physical flows. (05:30) Heavy sour crude and displacement risks How Venezuelan barrels, Canadian crude and China’s teapots are reshaping the heavy sour balance without creating shortages. (07:58) Asian crude under pressure: OSPs, Dubai and China quotas Saudi OSP cuts, a heavy Dubai structure, and why Beijing is tightening control over independent refiners. (14:05) Gasoline and light ends: from nowhere to everywhere Why EBOB found a floor, how storage and blending economics flipped, and where the next support could come from. (18:28) Fuel oil reaction versus reality High sulfur fuel oil cracks jump on headlines, but mass balance tells a different story. (19:31) US diesel and heating oil signals Strong runs, warm weather and resupply flows keep distillates grounded despite tight regional stocks. (21:02) What the desk is watching next Key benchmarks, spreads and regions to watch as geopolitics continues to test market conviction.  

In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by East West pull, gasoline shifts from European tightness into contango, and crude emerges as the core problem market unless headlines force a reset. 📚 Chapters (01:27) Headlines: Venezuela, Ukraine, Europe, and softening data Enforcement risk, sanctions talk, and growth signals collide, with a debate on what actually moves price versus what fades. (10:11) Distillates: 2025 rewind and Q1 diesel and jet outlook A volatile year in diesel and jet, then a constructive Q1 case built around stocks, winter risk, and supply constraints. (16:41) Naphtha: two halves of 2025 and why East West stays central From early year strength to late year reshuffling, plus the structural demand pulls and key risks for Q1. (25:00) Gasoline: Europe’s shift from tightness to contango A year of tightening supply then returning barrels, with attention on transatlantic flow signals and refinery reliability. (31:20) Crude: oversupply, structure, and what could force a pivot Why balances imply pricing to store, how diffs and structure may adjust, and the potential rebalancing mechanisms to watch.        

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now. Key Takeaways:  > What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports? > Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight? > Can demand surprise to the upside? > What do key producers do next year and how quickly can the long balance be cut down? Chapters:  (01:35) Headlines: Tanker Seizure & Sanctions Reality Check A breakdown of the Venezuela tanker seizure, the limited supply impact, and why the market keeps fading US sanctions risk. (07:13) China in 2026: Imports, SPR Strategy & Demand Shift A concise look at China’s crude demand trends, EV substitution, and whether stockbuilding could intensify if flat price falls. (14:38) Gasoline & Fuel Oil: Seasonal Builds and Feedstock Signals The team wraps product markets with U.S. winter gasoline builds, ARA balance, WAF flows, and fuel oil’s low-sulphur strength vs high-sulphur softness.

In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments - painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.   Chapters (02:17) Headlines: Ukraine, CPC attack, and geopolitical fog Why crude barely reacted to escalating infrastructure attacks — and what this says about global length. (07:33) Venezuela, Trump, and global crude flows The team unpacks political threats, supply risk, and how China and US refiners would adapt. (11:19) US supply surge and shale resilience Record output, surprising Permian growth, and what flat rig counts reveal about producer behaviour. (16:09) European gasoline softness and the shift to LR2s How freight, parcel size, and WAF flows are reshaping gasoline economics. (18:50) Gasoline: PADD 1 vs PADD 3 diverging realities Why the US East Coast draws aren’t moving arbs — and what exporters are signalling instead (25:01) US crude supply surge and WTI dynamics Record Permian output, Delaware Basin growth, and why flat rigs aren’t slowing production. How these shifts affect WTI pricing and export potential. (34:16) Middle distillates Regional tightness, seasonal demand, and arbitrage flows shaping market opportunities.    

Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long crude balance. They explore why prompt Brent spreads are so firm despite talk of a glut, dig into how gasoline and other light ends moved from extreme tightness toward something more normal, and then switch to diesel and jet to look at Q1 arbs, low stocks, and how headline risk is shaping trade calls. The team closes with a look at softer physical crude premiums, US crude exports and builds, and a quickfire tour of naphtha and fuel oil and what they might mean for refining margins into early next year. 📚 Chapters, (00:46) Headlines and Ukraine peace talks Neil and Phil walk through the confusion around Ukraine peace plans, what different outcomes could mean for sanctions, and how that might hit crude, products, freight, and paper spreads. (06:32) Gasoline and light ends after peak tightness Phil explains how ARA gasoline went from extreme tightness toward something more normal, what barge diffs, arbs, and Singapore strength are telling us, and why he is leaning more cautious on Jan–Feb spreads. (14:57) Middle distillates, jet, and Q1 arbs James recaps how diesel and jet traded into expiry, then looks ahead to Q1 with closed US and Asian arbs into Europe, low stocks, and why he still prefers a bullish stance on ICE gasoil and regrades. (23:39) Crude balances and the missing glut Neil reviews softer physical premiums in WAF, the AG, and the North Sea, reassesses his US crude build call, and asks whether we are finally starting to see more OECD barrels build rather than just sanctioned crude. (28:36) Quickfire: naphtha and fuel oil The pod wraps with a quickfire update on rich naphtha East West spreads, strong arbs to the East, and a weak fuel oil complex that is starting to drag on simple refining margins and could matter for crude and clean products.  

In this week’s episode, Neil steps in as host as the team unpacks a chaotic stretch in the oil market - from Russian export disruptions and the uncertain trajectory of US sanctions to a diesel market that has gone ballistic on genuine physical tightness. They explore shifts across crude grades, including North Sea softness, WAF heaviness, and surprising crude compatibility issues triggered by the Al-Zour outage. Light-ends remain volatile, gasoline premiums surge despite weak arb signals, and NGLs pile up in the US, painting a complex picture of a market where fundamentals and fear are colliding in unexpected ways.