Claim OwnershipFighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens
Subscribed: 0Played: 3
Subscribe
© Copyright 2025 All rights reserved.
Description
Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk.
Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines.
Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week.
New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.
27 Episodes
Reverse
The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.
💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.
📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com
If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.
We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.
The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.
💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.
🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.
👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!
The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.
If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com
The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.
The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.
Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.
Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network.
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://FightNumbers.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://FightNumbers.substack.com
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos
06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva
08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus
10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes
05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro
08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy
11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://FightNumbers.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas
04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://FightNumbers.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev
04:56 - Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose
08:00 - Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez
10:55 - Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page
14:02 - Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
16:52 - Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko
06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira
09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
Make sure to Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore
04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski
08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.
The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week.
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci
04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov
08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder
Follow and Subscribe!
Twitter: http://x.com/TheRobbeo
IG: http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
Full model report card: http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira
09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura
05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin
07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira
09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia
12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev
10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van
21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano
29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:04 - Recap
01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku
03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park
09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC Atlanta.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
12:19 - Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos
23:34 - Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick
33:30 - Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers.
Follow and Subscribe!
Twitter/X @TheRobbeo
IG: TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang
13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland
27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison
34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley
This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt
07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho
13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson
20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein
27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber
In this first official episode of Fighting with Numbers, I break down 6 fights on the UFC Vegas 106 card — including the main event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales. Using a stat-based model, I deliver predictions, finish probabilities, and betting value for these matchups.
Whether you’re chasing sharp angles or just want to see who the numbers favor, this episode gives you everything you need to bet smarter this weekend.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro
08:33 - Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes
14:09 - Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises
20:50 - Julian Erosa vs Melky Costa
28:06 - Dustin Stoltzfus vs Black Ruziboev
36:15 - Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
Follow and Subscribe!
http://x.com/TheRobbeo
http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
Welcome to the introductory episode of Fighting with Numbers — a podcast for UFC fans and bettors who want more than just hype. In this intro, I’m breaking down what this show is all about: who I am, how my predictive model works, and what you can expect week to week. If you’re looking to make smarter, more analytical bets on UFC fights, you’re in the right place. Let’s get started.
Follow and Subscribe!
X/Twitter - x.com/TheRobbeo
Substack - robbeo.substack.com
**Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com
Comments
Download from Google Play
Download from App Store
United States