Claim OwnershipFighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens
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Description
Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk.
Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines.
Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week.
New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.
33 Episodes
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It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.
After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.
In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.
Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.
Follow for more:
🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo
📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo
📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo
📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com
🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.
The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.
This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.
Follow me everywhere:
Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo
Instagram: @TheRobbeo
Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com
Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns.
Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.
UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.
In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.
I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.
Follow the show & stay connected:
• Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo
• Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo
• Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com
• Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well
If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.
Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!
UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.
This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.
In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.
The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers!
After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.
Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode.
Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.
For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.
🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter.
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The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.
📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year
🎧 Subscribe & Follow:
Twitter / Instagram: @TheRobbeo
YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheRobbeo
Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com
Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross
If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!
The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.
💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.
📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com
If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.
We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.
The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.
💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.
🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.
👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!
The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.
If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com
The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.
The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.
Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.
Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network.
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
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Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.
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Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos
06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva
08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus
10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva
Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes
05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro
08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy
11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
http://elevate-audio.com
It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas
04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
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The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev
04:56 - Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose
08:00 - Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez
10:55 - Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page
14:02 - Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
16:52 - Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
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Podcast notes:
Music by Elevate Audio:
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It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko
06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira
09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
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It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore
04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski
08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle
10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park
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Podcast notes:
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We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.
The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week.
SHOW NOTES:
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci
04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov
08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder
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Full model report card: http://robbeo.substack.com
Podcast notes:
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This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira
09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
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After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura
05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin
07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira
09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia
12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
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It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev
10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van
21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano
29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
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