DiscoverFighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical LensUFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van
UFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van

UFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van

Update: 2025-12-04
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The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.


 


This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.


 


Follow me everywhere:


Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo


Instagram: @TheRobbeo


Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com


Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns.


Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube. 


 


One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

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UFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van

UFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van

Rob Moreno