Inside the Economist’s Mind

Australia's green hydrogen transition faces severe setbacks due to high production costs, currently AUD 5−6 per kilogram, which developers cite as making the technology unviable. This cost hurdle, combined with the "chicken-and-egg problem" of uncertain market demand, has led to the cancellation of major projects, including the $12.5 billion CQ-H2 export venture. Further challenges include infrastructure bottlenecks, specialized transport complexity for liquid hydrogen, and unsustainable water resource demands required for large-scale production. Policy focus is now shifting to smaller, domestic industrial applications

Welcome to Inside the Economist's Mind. In this episode, we deep dive into the Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) September 2025 report. We analyze the dramatic shifts reshaping Australia's export landscape.The overall forecast projects that Australian resource and energy export earnings will decline by 5%, falling from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $369 billion in 2025–26. This overall decline masks a story of massive internal market volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and accelerating global transitions.Key Takeaways from the September 2025 REQ:Gold Overtakes LNG: We dissect how record-high gold prices, which climbed above US$3,700 an ounce in mid-September, are expected to offset declines in energy exports. Gold is forecast to surpass liquefied natural gas (LNG) to become Australia's second highest value export in 2025–26.The LNG Collapse: LNG export earnings are forecast to fall sharply from $65 billion in 2024–25 to $54 billion in 2025–26 and further to $48 billion in 2026–27. This decline is primarily price-driven, reflecting a rapid fall in oil prices (which feed into LNG contracts) and rising global supply from the US and Qatar.Clean Energy Demand & Base Metals: Discover the increasing demand pressures on copper. The commodity's price is forecast to rise due to a strong, structural uplift in demand that is not being matched by rising supply. This demand is being driven by the expansion of clean energy technologies and the explosive requirement for electricity infrastructure to support new AI data centers.Critical Mineral Growth: We examine the market dynamics affecting critical minerals, including the global oversupply keeping nickel prices subdued. Conversely, Australian export earnings for manganese and rare earth elements are expected to drive growth in the "other critical minerals" category, lifting earnings to $5.0 billion by 2026–27.Join us as we explore the threats posed by softening world growth, rising trade barriers, and geopolitical tensions, and how these factors influence Australia's resource sector outlook.

Discover how Australian petrol pump prices are determined by key factors, including international product costs (like the Singapore MOPS95 benchmark), government taxes (excise and GST), and industry operating expenses. Learn about the impact of supply chain logistics, local market competition, and discounting cycles that influence prices across Australian cities and regions.• Australian petrol prices• how petrol prices determined Australia• petrol cost breakdown Australia• fuel prices Australia• petrol taxes Australia• excise tax petrol Australia• GST petrol Australia• Singapore MOPS95• petrol supply chain Australia• fuel market competition Australia• regional petrol prices Australia• petrol pricing benchmarks• fuel industry operating costs• Australian fuel imports

"The World Ahead" is an **annual predictive publication** from The Economist, released every November. It serves as a **forward-looking guide**, offering in-depth analysis, forecasts, and informed speculation across a wide spectrum of global affairs for the upcoming year. The Transformative Impact of Donald Trump's Return: A significant focus is placed on the ramifications of Mr. Trump's re-election, anticipating shifts in **U.S. immigration policy** towards mass deportations and stricter border controls. Globally, this is expected to lead to **renewed trade wars**, particularly with China, and a more transactional American foreign policy that could **strain traditional alliances**, raising questions about global security commitments. His administration is likely to push for a **winding down of the Ukraine conflict** and grant Israel greater autonomy in its regional engagements. The publication also notes the world's entry into a **"third nuclear age"** with more weapons and fewer arms control treaties, presenting new challenges for his presidency.Accelerating Technological Evolution and Its Constraints: The publication highlights a **"crunch time" for artificial intelligence (AI)**, with massive investments in data centers and advanced chips (like Nvidia's Blackwell), yet also acknowledges concerns about patchy adoption, uncertain real-world productivity boosts, and looming issues with data supply and regulation. On a more positive note, AI is expected to **accelerate drug development**, with AI-inspired medicines nearing regulatory approval, and will play a role in **cancer vaccine advancements**. The clean energy sector is poised for a **boom in grid-scale energy storage**, driven by renewable energy surges and demand from AI data centers, alongside progress in diverse storage technologies and even **fusion power** moving closer to commercial viability through private ventures.* **Evolving Global Geopolitics and Regional Dynamics**: Challenges and opportunities are foreseen across continents. **China's aging population** is driving the development of a "silver economy," while its entrepreneurs navigate domestic policy shifts and U.S. chip bans, pushing many Chinese firms to **expand globally** to circumvent tariffs. Conflicts in **Sudan**, the **Middle East**, and rising tensions in the **South China Sea** are identified as critical flashpoints. Europe is urged to bolster its **defence capabilities**, facing a potential decrease in U.S. security commitment. India's economy is projected to **overtake Japan's**, though without creating a comparable "China shock," and democratic stability in various Asian nations, like Indonesia and Thailand, faces challenges.* **Key Economic and Societal Trends**: The **American economy is anticipated to remain robust** despite potential risks from Trump's protectionist and anti-immigration policies. The **British economy** seeks sustained growth after years of sluggishness, with domestic political fragmentation anticipated within the new Labour government. There's an expected **backlash against "radical" diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) schemes**, leading to their "slimmed down" adoption, while genuine diversity efforts may continue. The **streaming "golden era" is expected to slow**, with rising prices and more advertisements, while **video game adaptations** are set to become a major force in film and television. Furthermore, the publication explores the potential for global **emissions to peak** and discusses the phenomenon of **"overtourism"** beginning to subside as travel patterns normalize.* **"Implausible-Sounding Scenarios"**: Reflecting the unpredictable nature of modern times, the publication also explores a range of unlikely but potentially high-impact events for 2025, including a **devastating solar storm**, the use of **4G cellular technology on the Moon**, the possibility of **another global pandemic**, or even the **discovery of lost ancient texts using AI.

Welcome to Inside’s Economists Mind—a podcast where economic thinking meets real-world impact.You’re listening to our Career Conversations series, where we explore the journeys, challenges, and strategies that shape the careers of economists in Australia.Today’s episode is all about mastering behavioral interviews at the ATO. If you’re preparing for an Economist or Research Analyst role in the public sector, this one’s for you.We’ll unpack the STAR method, walk through tailored examples, and show you how to align your experience with ATO values and expectations.

In this episode, we dive into NAB Economics' preview of Australia's Q1 2025 GDP, which forecasts a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise. The growth is expected to be led by private sector momentum, particularly through business and dwelling investment, even as consumer spending shows signs of cooling. We'll explore how this outlook aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia's expectations and what it means for inflation, the labor market, and future economic policy. Plus, we discuss the challenges ahead in sustaining investment and reviving consumption to support long-term growth.

Key points:Population growth peaked just above 2.5%yr in Q3 2023 due to a surge following the reopening of international borders, driven by the return of students and arrival of approved permanent residents who were delayed by the pandemic.Similar patterns of population growth surges and corrections have been observed in other countries like Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Germany.While previously expected to finish 2024 around a 2%yr pace, official data for Q3 2023 showed the annual growth rate had already declined to 1.8%. Both Westpac and the RBA are now operating under an assumption of 1.7%yr growth for calendar year 2024.The reason for the faster-than-expected slowdown is not entirely clear, but potential factors include an apparent slowdown in processing times for some visa classes and increased departures of long-term non-permanent residents.Working-age population growth initially outpaced total population growth, likely because the catch-up surge was skewed towards young adult students. This gap is closing as the overall population surge unwinds.Official Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates of the working-age civilian population may be revised in the future when benchmarked against official population data. Focusing on ratio measures like the employment-to-population ratio, participation rate, and unemployment rate is suggested for better interpretation of near-term labour market developments, as these are more robust to changes in estimated population growth.Lower population growth implies less pressure on housing markets. The earlier surge in population growth contributed to the rise in rent inflation and a boost to housing prices despite high interest rates. As growth slows, rent inflation is expected to slow, and the impact of lower interest rates on established housing prices might be less than usual.State-level population growth varies considerably; for example, in the year to Q3 2023, Victoria (2.1%yr), Queensland (2.0%yr), and WA (2.5%yr) had growth rates above the national pace, while NSW lagged (1.4%), partly due to negative net interstate migration.Demographic variables, although often considered slow-moving, can change quickly, especially in the aftermath of events like the pandemic.The primary topics covered in the article include:Population growth (specifically in Australia and its recent downswing)The Labour market and implications for employment growthThe Housing market, including impacts on demand, rent inflation, and housing pricesAustralian economics in generalThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) assumptions and forecasts related to population growthData from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), particularly regarding population and labour force estimatesState-level variations in population growth within AustraliaThe impact of post-pandemic recovery and border re-openingsComparisons with population trends in other peer economies (Canada, New Zealand, UK, Germany)Migration trends (students, permanent residents, interstate)

Australia's population growth surge following the reopening of international borders is now unwinding faster than previously indicated, reaching an annual rate of 1.8% in Q3 2024 and is now assumed to be 1.7% for calendar year 2024 by both Westpac and the RBA. This slowdown is expected to **reduce demand pressure on the housing market** and implies that **rent inflation should slow further**.* There is currently a **high degree of uncertainty** in the global economic outlook, particularly surrounding bilateral trade negotiations and tariffs, which is impacting central banks.* The US economy is seen as "solid" with "solid" labour market conditions, but inflation is "somewhat elevated" with "significant uncertainties" stemming from trade and migration policies. The **FOMC is in a 'wait and see' mode**.* In New Zealand, the **RBNZ cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25bps to 3.25%**, a decision made by a 5-1 vote. They **downgraded their economic forecasts** for 2025 GDP growth to 1.8%yr (from 2.4%) due to the weaker global outlook from increased trade protectionism.* Despite the rate cut and downgraded forecasts, the RBNZ showed caution regarding the timing and extent of future cuts, noting "no bias" for the July meeting and that future decisions will be data-dependent. Westpac's New Zealand economists now expect the next RBNZ rate cut in August rather than July.* In Australia, the April Monthly CPI Indicator showed headline inflation at 2.4%yr, while the **monthly trimmed mean ticked up to 2.8%yr, posing some upside risk to Westpac's Q2 CPI forecast**.* Australia's **Q1 GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.4%qtr (1.5%yr)**, partly impacted by natural disasters and a slight decline in private CAPEX, though external demand brought forward ahead of tariff increases may provide some offset. Net exports are expected to add 0.4ppt to Q1 GDP growth.* Household spending in Australia looks like another soft month in April due to holiday disruptions and weak vehicle sales.

In this episode, we unpack Westpac IQ’s latest report on Australia’s construction sector for Q1 2025. With overall activity holding steady and a 3.5% year-over-year growth, residential construction is leading the charge. We also explore the evolving landscape of engineering construction, where traditional infrastructure takes a backseat to a growing wave of renewable energy projects. Plus, hear insights on how easing inflation is impacting builders and developers across the country. Whether you're in real estate, energy, or policy, this episode brings you the key takeaways shaping Australia’s construction future.

In this episode, we dive into the rising tensions between the US and the European Union as former President Trump threatens a sweeping 50% tariff on EU goods. Drawing from ING Think’s latest economic analysis, we explore the EU’s counteroffers, the strategic sectors at stake, and what a full-blown transatlantic trade conflict could mean for global markets. Is this brinkmanship or the beginning of a larger economic standoff? Tune in to understand the implications, the risks, and why a drawn-out trade war may not be in anyone’s best interest.

This week on *Westpac’s Australia & New Zealand Weekly*, we unpack the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut and what it signals about inflation and domestic demand. We also analyze New Zealand’s newly released Budget and the potential path ahead for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. With global uncertainties looming, our economists dive into key international developments and preview critical upcoming data from China, Japan, Europe, and the U.S. Plus, updated forecasts on interest rates and exchange rates to help you stay ahead.

In this episode, we unpack Paul Krugman’s take on deindustrialization in America. Challenging the popular blame placed on globalization and trade deficits, Krugman argues that the decline in manufacturing is part of a broader economic evolution—not a crisis to be reversed. We explore his case for moving beyond nostalgic policies and focusing instead on real solutions to support today’s workers in a changing economy.

This episode features highlights from *Dollars and Cents* by The Australia Institute, diving into recent economic developments in Australia. We explore the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut, differing expert opinions on monetary policy, and the evolving definition of full employment. Plus, we break down new data on the gender pay gap in both public and private sectors, and consider how global uncertainty—including Trump-era policy echoes—could shape Australia’s outlook. A timely look at the intersections of policy, equity, and economics.

In this episode, we take a closer look at the methodology behind the Australian Wage Price Index (WPI). Based on official guidance from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we break down how wage data is collected, what’s included (and excluded), and how consistent job tracking and statistical weighting ensure the index reflects real wage trends. Learn how seasonal adjustment and trend estimates make the WPI a vital tool for understanding Australia's labor market.

In this episode, we unpack the Reserve Bank of Australia's May 2025 monetary policy statement. With domestic activity tracking as expected and inflation gradually easing, the RBA has now turned its attention to new global risks. Rising trade tensions, especially following the United States' recent tariff hikes, are casting a shadow over the global and domestic outlook. We explore why the Board chose to lower the cash rate target, what this means for businesses and consumers, and the alternative economic scenarios the RBA is now preparing for.

In this episode, we spotlight the critical role of attention to detail in the world of economics. Through real-world examples and STAR method scenarios, we illustrate how meticulous data analysis, careful model building, and precise communication lead to reliable and impactful outcomes. We also explore why a sharp eye for detail is essential for ensuring data accuracy, avoiding costly errors, and maintaining professional credibility. Whether you're working with complex datasets or presenting forecasts, this episode reveals how mastering attention to detail can elevate your performance and decision-making as an economist.

In this episode, we unpack ING’s latest global economic outlook for May 2025. From trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty to shifting central bank policies, we explore why global markets are stagnating despite early-year momentum. We dive into the impact of US tariffs, revised growth forecasts for key economies, and the evolving stance of central banks on interest rates. Plus, we look at falling oil prices and OPEC+’s new market strategy. A must-listen for anyone tracking the pulse of the global economy.

In this episode of our *Career Conversation Series*, we dive into strategies for mastering behavioral interview questions—especially for aspiring economists. We explore the value of the STAR method (Situation, Task, Action, Result) as a clear framework for structuring impactful responses. Listeners will gain tips on researching employers, preparing tailored examples, and demonstrating adaptability through real-world scenarios. We also highlight key soft skills like active listening, asking clarifying questions, and staying honest and positive throughout the interview process.

In this episode of Inside the Economist’s Mind, we delve into the art of effectively communicating intricate economic concepts to diverse audiences. Economists often grapple with the challenge of making complex ideas accessible and engaging.We explore key strategies to enhance clarity and connection:Understanding Your Audience: Tailoring your message to the audience's knowledge level and interests is crucial. Utilizing Storytelling: Employing narratives and relatable examples can make abstract concepts more tangible.Simplifying with Visuals: Visual aids like charts and infographics can distill complex data into understandable insights.Anticipating Objections: Addressing potential questions and concerns proactively builds trust and clarity.Encouraging Feedback: Inviting questions and discussions fosters engagement and ensures your message resonates.Join us as we uncover practical techniques to enhance your communication skills, ensuring your economic analyses are not only understood but also impactful.

In this episode, we delve into the vital role of analytical skills in the field of economics. Drawing from two insightful sources, we examine how economists can both showcase and sharpen their analytical thinking. Listeners will learn how to effectively respond to behavioral interview questions using the STAR method, with examples that bring real-world economic challenges to life. We also share practical tips for developing analytical abilities—like practicing with data, learning from experts, collaborating with peers, and reflecting on growth. Whether you're preparing for a job interview or aiming to elevate your economic insight, this episode offers valuable strategies for success.